College hoops was a tough proposition for us on Tuesday night, when we thought we had the inside track on a few underdog plays, only to be cut off at the pass like one of those vulnerable stagecoaches from an old Western.
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But maybe we come back strong, eh? We want you to look at these games for LATE NIGHT on Thursday’s sked, keeping in mind that you can get great odds, nice exotic payouts, and live betting options from our friends at America’s Bookie.
Arizona Wildcats at Oregon State Beavers Picks
When: 11 PM ET
College Basketball Odds: Arizona -8.5, Total 140
Arizona is coming off a tough couple of games, having been swept in Los Angeles by USC and UCLA. We know that they have enough talent to do a lot of damage in the PAC-12, but the problem is that they aren’t going any further than that this year, having banished themselves from ANY post-season play, which would include the conference tournament.
You can look at this game in a couple of different ways. One is that Arizona does whatever SOU is able to do, and does it better. Another is to say that one of the advantages the Wildcats have over lost opponents – that of size – doesn’t exist all that much here.
Even having said that, neither the Beavers nor the ‘Cats seem to make their two-point shots with much proficiency. And SOU especially, as they make just 42% inside the arc, which ranks them 329Th out of 357 Division I teams.Yikes!
The little guy, James Akinjo, came up big for UA against UCLA, with 25 points and eight assists. And maybe he’s going to give his team an edge on the outside.
There are some positive things to be said for Oregon State. One is that they are going to do a very good job taking care of the basketball. And they will unquestionably get their fair share of second-shot opportunities.
Ethan Thompson, perhaps the top returnee the team had, brings some size to the backcourt. But the guy to watch at the moment is sophomore Jarod Lucas, who hit five triples in the team’s last outing, an 81-71 loss to Stanford. Lucas has missed just TWO of 40 free throws and has turned the ball over TWICE in 211 minutes of play.
Hey, at least the Beavers got a lot of rest (nine days off). If they can avoid coughing the ball up, they have a chance of hanging in there. And also consider that their style of play will likely limit the number of possessions.
The Play: OREGON STATE +8.5
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BYU Cougars at Saint Mary’s Gaels Picks
When: 11 PM ET
College Basketball Odds: Saint Mary’s -1, Total 132
Only 28% of the shots taken by SMC’s opponents have come from three-point range. So let’s assume they do a pretty good job of running people off the perimeter and into two-point territory, where they have been a difficult nut to crack for people (allowing just 42.8% shooting).
But then the shoe goes on the other foot a little too, as the Gaels have not demonstrated that they are much of a threat from long-range, but will likely encounter the 7-foot, three-inch frame of BYU’s Matt Haarms in the middle. Keep in mind that the Gaels, in their 20th year under Randy Bennett, are slower than that “slowwwwww” ketchup Heinz used to advertise, as their “Adjusted Tempo” (metric compiled by the great people at KenPom) is 353rd out of 357 teams.
The victories for Saint Mary’s have come from lesser lights; when they have stepped up in class they have found trouble – case in point being losses to Memphis and San Diego State in which they have shot a combined six-of-40 from three-point territory and did indeed allow those clubs to produce on the inside.
I guess it’s sort of a badge of honor to be able to come within 20 points of Gonzaga this season, and that is what BYU did the other day. On balance, they are more battle-tested than this foe, with wins already over the likes of St. John’s, Utah State, Utah and San Diego State. Last season BYU went into Moraga and took things into overtime; in three meetings, the total margin – in regulation time anyway – was three points.
So we’re just fine grabbing this dog.
The Play: BYU +1
