It’s less than 100 days from the start of the 2021 college football season. For sports handicappers, that means taking a look at futures betting markets, specifically the win totals market.
Alabama is once again the early favorite to capture this year’s national title, but the Crimson Tide offers little value in the win totals market.
Here are five win totals make much more sense than betting on the Tide.
Louisville Cardinals Win Total Odds
Louisville Cardinals Team Preview
Best Bet: Over 7 Wins (+105)
The ACC is loaded at the top with Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami the teams with the best shot at winning the conference. In reality, it comes down to which team – UNC or Miami – can beat the Tigers in the ACC title game.
What’s more interesting though is a Louisville squad that loses WRs Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick to the NFL. The Cardinals had a disappointing 2020 finishing 3-7 overall. Louisville returns Malik Cunningham at quarterback and don’t forget the Cards lost four games last season by a possession.
With an improved defense and a schedule conducive to winning at least seven games, take the Cardinals Over 7 wins at +105.
TCU Horned Frogs Win Total Odds
Best Bet: Over 7.5 Wins (+100)
All the talk in the Big 12 revolves around Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Horned Frogs will face both teams – and Oklahoma State – on the road this season. Otherwise, head coach Gary Patterson’s team could be primed for a big season.
They get FCS Duquesne in the opener and Pac-12 Cal at home. Texas is at home as is West Virginia and Baylor. Plus, TCU returns QB Max Duggan and 92 percent of the Horned Frogs offensive production from a year ago.
UTEP Miners Win Total Odds
Best Bet: Over 3 Wins (+125)
It’s almost hard to fathom. The Miners are one of the worst programs in the FBS, yet there is value on the Over here. UTEP won three games last season and, if they can steal one in 2021, the Over will cash.
The Miners will face New Mexico State in the opener. The Aggies didn’t play last fall and then split two games in the spring to Division II opponents. UTEP then gets FCS Bethune-Cookman and the Miners will face Old Dominion – another team that didn’t play last year – and then navigate the Conference USA schedule.
2022 NCAA Football Championship Futures Odds
Florida Gators Win Total Odds
Best Bet: Under 9 Wins (+100)
Welcome to the post-Kyle era. Florida head coach Dan Mullens must replace his starting quarterback (Kyle Trask) and his All-Everything TE (Kyle Pitts). That’s a big chunk of the Gators offense.
Florida will have an easy non-conference schedule with South Florida, Florida Atlantic, and Samford; but the Gators will have to navigate the SEC once again with a defense that gave up a ton of points last year.
The Gators cross over in the conference to face Alabama and LSU and then face East Division nemesis Georgia. Tennessee should be better and Missouri is on the rise.
With the two Kyles last season, the Gators went 8-4. Without them, the value is on the Under.
Best Bets to Make the 2022 CFB Playoffs
Troy Trojans Win Total Odds
Best Bet: Over 7 Wins (+100)
After three straight double-digit win seasons, the Troy Trojans have struggled through 5-7 and 5-6 seasons the past two years. The offense isn’t outstanding, but the defense is a different story.
The Troy defense has a TARP (Transferring Assets & Returning Production) rating of 92 percent. Defense wins games, especially in the Sun Belt. Troy plays in the tougher East Division and they crossover to face Louisiana and South Alabama, the two best teams in the West.
Still, there is enough talent here to win. The Trojans are projected to win 7.84 games in 2021.
