TCU Football Predictions, Odds and Spread by Size of Line Skip to content
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TCU Horned Frogs

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TCU football covered five of six games in 2025 when favored by 6.5 points or fewer, and none of the four when favored by 7.5 or more. The Horned Frogs finished 5-7 against the spread.

Short favorites, long favorites

TCU finished the 2025 regular season 8-4, favored in ten games. The size of the line split them cleanly. Favored by 6.5 points or fewer, the Horned Frogs went 5-1 and covered five: 48-14 at North Carolina, 35-24 over SMU, 42-36 over Baylor, 17-14 at Houston and 45-23 over Cincinnati. Favored by 7.5 or more, they went 3-1 and covered none: 42-21 over Abilene Christian at -41.5, 35-21 over Colorado at -14.5, 23-17 at West Virginia at -16.5, and a 20-17 loss to Iowa State at -7.5.

The Frogs 2025 regular season, game by game2025-09-01 at North Carolina Tar Heels 48-142025-09-13 v Abilene Christian Wildcats 42-212025-09-20 v SMU Mustangs 35-242025-09-26 at Arizona State Sun Devils 24-272025-10-04 v Colorado Buffaloes 35-212025-10-11 at Kansas State Wildcats 28-412025-10-18 v Baylor Bears 42-362025-10-25 at West Virginia Mountaineers 23-172025-11-08 v Iowa State Cyclones 17-202025-11-15 at BYU Cougars 13-442025-11-22 at Houston Cougars 17-142025-11-29 v Cincinnati Bearcats 45-23Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
8-4 in 12 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The favored losses

The Iowa State loss came at -320, the shortest price TCU lost at. The other was 41-28 at Kansas State at -2.5, the one short favorite that missed.

As underdogs

Two games, two losses, no covers, both at +2.5: 27-24 at Arizona State and 44-13 at BYU.

The Frogs at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (6)won 5 (83.3%)covered 3 of 6 (50.0%)Away (6)won 3 (50.0%)covered 2 of 6 (33.3%)Favorite (10)won 8 (80.0%)covered 5 of 10 (50.0%)Underdog (2)won 0 (0.0%)covered 0 of 2 (0.0%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The moneyline

Eleven games had a price; Abilene Christian did not. In the nine priced games as favorite, one unit on TCU in each returned 1.44 units, and only 22 FBS teams made more that way. The two underdog losses took the season to 0.56 units down.

One unit on the Frogs to win, every game0-2-1+1-0.56 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 11 priced 2025 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

TCU went six over and six under, scoring 30.75 points a game and allowing 25.17.

The season ended with a 30-27 win over USC in the Alamo Bowl.

Questions and answers

How did TCU do against the spread as a small favorite in 2025?

Favored by 6.5 or fewer, it covered 5 of 6.

How did TCU do as a big favorite in 2025?

Favored by 7.5 or more, it won 3 of 4 and covered none.

How often did the Horned Frogs cover overall?

Five times in 12.

Past games

  1. Cougars at TCU · 3 OctOur number has TCU by 2.5.
  2. TCU at Knights · 26 SepOur number has UCF by 5.4.

Big 12 Conference