The National Football League (NFL) is one of the most popular sports leagues in the world. The fun and thrills that fans experience are arguably second to none. From the low tides of watching a regular football game to the peak of experiencing the Super Bowl, it is just simply amazing.
Now, you can move from a spectator or fan to a ‘stakeholder’ in the NFL by betting on NFL games. Essentially, you will be getting paid for supporting and following the NFL. The NFL is the most wagered-on sport in the United States, generating $100 billion annually in gambling revenue. Many people have walked and are walking this path, making money every week by betting on NFL games. If you are looking for how to bet on NFL games, this comprehensive guide is what you need to move from a new bettor to a seasoned bettor.
Overview of the NFL
The NFL is a professional American football league with 32 different teams. Both the American Football Conference and the National Football Conference have 16 teams each. Each NFL season starts with a preseason that lasts three weeks, followed by the regular season that lasts 18 weeks (September to January). Seven teams (four division winners and three wild card teams) from each conference make it to the playoffs. The winners of each conference then face off in the popular battle called the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl is perhaps the biggest sporting event and surely one of the most-watched sporting events every year, with fans all over the world ensuring they don’t miss it for anything. The 2024 final, which saw the Kansas City Chiefs narrowly defeat the San Francisco 49ers, had about 62 thousand fans in attendance. This attendance is rated the second lowest in history, except for the pandemic era.
The teams in the NFL include Kansas City Chiefs (who are aiming to become the first NFL team to three-peat), San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots (with the highest number (6) of Super Bowl wins alongside the Pittsburgh Steelers), etc.
NFL Bet Types
There are so many betting options in the NFL right now. Sports bettors are faced with almost limitless options, allowing them to wager on NFL odds from preseason games, playoff matchups, to the Super Bowl itself. Some of the most popular bet types in the NFL are discussed below:
Single-Game NFL Bets
These types of bets involve placing a bet on a single NFL game on a game day or game week. For example, you can wager on a Philadelphia Eagles win against the Green Bay Packers. Immediately you open a betting site, the wagers displayed for each game are moneyline bets, point spread bets, and totals bets.
Point Spreads
One of the most popular wagers on football among bettors is the point spread bet. This type of bet is usually referenced as betting the spread, betting against the spread (ATS), or point spread betting by bettors. Whatever way you choose to reference it, the meaning is the same.
Point spread is a type of bet where sportsbooks try to level the playing field between two teams because there are hardly any perfect matchups. So, the gap between the favorite teams and the underdogs is closed using a point spread. This way, equal betting on both teams is encouraged.
When you choose this bet type, the favored team must not only win a game, they have to do it by at least a specified number of points (known as the spread). Spreads usually have half-points attached to them, ensuring the possibility of a push or tie is avoided.
Signs are added to the numbers assigned to each team. The minus sign or negative number represents the favorite team, while a positive sign or positive number represents the underdog.
For example: to play a point spread bet on a game between the New York Giants (+5.5) and Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), you can bet on the Cowboys against the spread. For the bet to end as a win, the Cowboys have to emerge victorious in the game by at least 6 points. What this means is, if you subtract the point spread of 5.5 from the Dallas Cowboys’ total points, they still maintain their lead.
If your bet is on the Giants (the underdog), they don’t need to win the game. All they need to do is to keep the margin of the final score below five points.
Note: sportsbooks can change the point spread if the wagers on one team is significantly heavier than the other. This is to encourage bettors to wager in the other direction, since having the money evenly split is the goal of sportsbooks. All bets placed before the change stay the same.
Moneyline
Moneyline bets are the easiest type of football bet. All you are doing here is placing a wager on the winning team. The implied probability of a team winning a football game is indicated by the odd set by the sportsbooks. The odds also determine what your payouts and profits from football betting will be.
For example, if Kansas City is assigned -200, you will need a wager of $200 to get a payout of $300 (indicating a $100 profit). On the other hand, if the New England Patriots are assigned +150, you will need a $100 wager for a $250 payout and profit of $150.
As demonstrated, betting on the favorite in a moneyline bet is not very enticing and may not be worth it based on value bets.
Totals Bets (Over/Under)
Instead of focusing on the teams that win or lose football games, totals bets focus on the total points scored. Sportsbooks set a specific total based on different factors, including betting trends, and bettors can now bet ‘over’ or ‘under’ the point set.
For example: If a sportsbook sets the total points scored in a football game at 49.5, you can bet that the two teams won’t reach that mark (under) or that the two teams will exceed it (over).
Note: the total typically changes throughout the week based on the information available to sportsbooks. Be careful to pick the correct option you have in mind.
Multiple-Game NFL Bets
Most experienced bettors bet on more than one game per week. There are excellent NFL betting options for this, such as teasers and parlays.
Parlay Bet
Placing a parlay bet simply refers to the selection of more than one event in a bet. For example, you can combine both a totals bet and a moneyline bet in a single bet. The wager could be on Kansas City to win a game and the final points scored in the game to exceed the set total. Another option is to pick the Cowboys and Dallas to win their football games on a bet.
Parlay bets are very flexible, allowing bettors to combine bets as they like. You can combine totals bets, moneyline, and point spread. However, the majority of sportsbooks don’t allow the combination of point spread and moneyline. Also, some put a limit on the number of events in a parlay, while it’s unlimited on some sportsbooks.
NFL parlays allow you to create favorable odds, significantly increasing the money you can win. However, all the events must be accurate for the bet to be a win. Hence, the more events you include, the lower the chances of winning.
An example of parlay is Same Game Parlay, which involves selections from a single matchup.
Teasers
Teasers are a type of parlay. Here, bettors sacrifice payout for more favorable spreads. The potential high payouts that come with parlays are reduced, but the chances of winning are increased. If you are including a lot of events in a bet, a teaser is an excellent option. While it is great to get huge wins, the most important thing is not losing money in the long run.
Other NFL Bets
There are still many other options you can bet on, aside moneyline, point spread, parlays, and totals. For example, you can also bet on a player to be an anytime touchdown scorer in a game, as well as individual awards. This flexibility makes football betting even more interesting. Other NFL bets include:
Prop Bets
Proposition (props) bets present excellent opportunities for bettors to make money. In the NFL, prop bets are available throughout the regular season but are more popular during the Super Bowl. Props can be about the team performance or a player’s performance, known as player props. For example, you can bet on the team to score the first field goal or the totals a player will get in a game.
Throughout a regular season, only a few props are usually available but the options are almost limitless during the Super Bowl. You can, in fact, get to bet on non-football-based events such as the Gatorade color that will be dumped on the winning coach.
Futures Bet
What is a futures bet? Futures bet focuses on events that will happen in the future, weeks, months, or even an entire season. For instance, some sportsbooks allow you to wager on whom the winner of the next Super Bowl will be within 24 hours of the end of one. You can also bet on player awards such as Defensive and Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Note: the majority of sportsbooks don’t allow bettors to parlay any NFL futures bets and some of them will close futures bets once a regular season starts.
Live betting
Live betting is also known as in-game betting. It is very dynamic, with the lines and odds changing throughout the game based on the events happening in the game. These adjustments are based on algorithms, hence there could be excellent betting opportunities if you are following the game. For example, if an underdog races into an early lead, the odds for the favorite to win will increase significantly, hence giving bettors a chance to make more money. Injury to a key player in the game can also present a great opportunity for bettors.
Note: you must be very quick and your network must be strong because things are constantly changing in the game. You also have to accept the reality that you will miss out on some good live betting opportunities. Don’t let it deter you; just be on the lookout for another opportunity.
How to Bet on NFL Games (Tips and Strategies)
One of the major differences between casual bettors, new bettors, and experienced bettors is strategy. Professional bettors don’t just pick games or depend on luck, they develop or adopt strategies and follow them strictly, regardless of circumstances. So, if you are looking to win consistently in NFL betting, you must play based on a strategy. Fortunately, you don’t have to develop strategies yourself, you can adopt winning strategies and then build on them, according to your personal experience. Some of the best strategies for NFL Bets are discussed below:
Fade the Public
This is a popular strategy in NFL betting. Basically, it refers to betting against the public. Fans are an integral part of all sports, including football. They support their teams with so much passion, hence they always have opinions and are loud about it. When it comes to football betting, the public have opinions on who they think will win a game. This opinion is often merely because they are fans of a team. Therefore, public opinion typically favors popular teams, especially those with recent success.
When sportsbooks are setting odds, one of the things they consider is public opinion. They hope to use public sentiment to their advantage. Hence, lines can be inflated, not representing the true picture of things.
As a bettor, understanding this dynamic positions you to take advantage of any opportunities that line adjustments by bookmakers may present. Be ready to bet against the public when you notice the odds set by oddsmakers are not sufficiently backed by facts available.
Bankroll Management
Effective bankroll management is a very vital strategy for ensuring you don’t record excessive losses on bets. The amount of money you set apart solely for betting is what is referred to as a bankroll. Now, how do you manage your bankroll?
The first step in bankroll management is to set betting limits, the maximum amount you can wager on each bet. This amount should be a tiny percentage of your bankroll, ensuring it’s something you can afford to lose. No matter how certain or tempting a single bet is, don’t risk an excessive portion of your bankroll on it. Similarly, don’t let the pursuit of getting a lost wager back make you exceed your betting limit.
Find Value
One of the most important lessons you will learn as you grow in your NFL betting journey is that not all bets are worth it. A good example here is when the Kansas City Chiefs are clearly expected to win a game, the odds set by the oddsmakers will be low. Therefore, your profit margin may not be worth it, especially when you consider there is no assurance they are going to win the game any way. This is where value bets come in. Of course, it is not just about a game’s final outcome, it focuses on value opportunities.
Find value by looking for where the odds offered by a sportsbook are seemingly higher than what you think is the actual probability. Several factors can make sportsbooks offer higher odds, including injury reports. Hence, it is vital to follow team updates to allow you to make value bets when the opportunities arise, thereby increasing your profit margin.
Note: it is also imperative to watch out for traps as you go looking for value bets. You are not just looking for high odds; your focus is on odds that are higher than the actual probability and there must be a reasonable explanation for that. Oddsmakers makers set some odds high based on sentiments, not facts. Such odds are often a trap; don’t fall for it.
Line Shopping
Usually, all sportsbooks offer similar odds for similar outcomes. The differences are typically not significant, but sometimes the difference between the odds can be significant enough for a sizable difference in profit margin. Betting activities received by a sportsbook and their assessments are key factors that could create such an odds gap.
When line shopping, you are looking for the best odds for a particular game. Hence, you should check and compare betting lines from multiple sportsbooks. Always choose the most favorable odds.
Note: while hunting for favorable odds, don’t be a victim of fake and fraudulent sportsbooks. So, if you consider the odds too good to be true, you should reevaluate your facts. If it is still good to be true, the sportsbooks may be fake or fraudulent. We’ll still discuss this further later in this article.
Home Field Advantage
In all sports, playing at home (in front of your home crowd) often affects the game. The degree of the impact of the home crowd on the result of a game varies, depending on other key factors. Another advantage of playing at home is the understanding of the environment. Yes, the rules are the same and the fields are the same dimensions, but playing on your home field can give some psychological edges.
Therefore, when picking football bets, take into consideration the home field advantage. Consider the home record of the home team, as some teams have very impressive home records and are massively backed by their home crowd. Also, consider the quality and the away performance or record of the team they are playing against, among other factors like the unavailability of a key player.
Monitor Betting Lines
Betting lines are constantly changing. Public betting trends, weather conditions, and injury reports are some of the factors that contribute to these changes. Some changes are minimal, hence they don’t really affect the outlook of the game. Some line changes are rapid, which could signal a key update that can alter your betting strategy for that game or week. As a bettor, always monitor line movements closely as it can be the difference between making more money or losing money.
Conduct Thorough Research
Research is the foundation upon which any betting strategy must be built. Most casual and new bettors often cannot wrap their head around the fact that experienced bettors spend so much time researching NFL games and teams. In fact, experienced bettors usually spend about 95 percent of their betting time researching and the remaining 5 percent picking bets based on their findings.
There is so much information to evaluate and it can be very overwhelming. Recent form, rivalry, home record, away record, average total points scored, and injury reports are just a few of the tons of details to analyze. Ensure you do your homework, allowing you to make informed picks and increasing your chances of making money from football betting.
Take advantage of Tipsters
Tipsters are experienced bettors who provide tips and predictions on sports betting. They typically know a lot about the sports they are giving tips about, hence their analysis is generally pretty good. Take advantage of this to enhance your own analysis and make better betting decisions. You can easily follow NFL betting communities on social media.
Note: it is important to always do your own analysis before wagering on predictions made by tipsters to avoid losing money. You should also watch out for tipsters who are loud but aren’t very knowledgeable.
Computer Analysis
To make research and analysis easier, diverse computer programs have been developed. Research that could take a professional bettor hours will take computer a few minutes to analyze and arrive at a prediction. Therefore, you should take advantage of available computer programs to do better and faster analysis. Once the algorithm is done analyzing, you should still consider if there’s anything that has been missed before deciding your picks.
The Legality of Football Betting
Like other sports betting, placing bets on football games can have serious implications if it is not legalized in your jurisdiction. You can face serious sanctions, including heavy fines and a jail term. Therefore, it is very important for you to check if the laws of your jurisdiction allow football betting before placing your first bet. You should also take note of this if you move to another area, even if it is short-term, like vacation.
In the United States, most states allow sports betting, including football betting, both online and in retail locations. However, some states such as Arkansas, Delaware, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wisconsin only allow football betting in retail locations. Montana allows both online and retail locations, but the online betting must be on-premises only.
Another important aspect of legality in sports betting is age appropriateness. The legal age for gambling in the US varies, based on jurisdiction and the type of gambling. For sports betting, the minimum age requirement is 21 for most states but there are exceptions. Hence, it is imperative to always confirm what the laws of your jurisdiction say.
Placing Bets on NFL Games
Having understood the basics of NFL betting and its legality, it is time for the next step. When you feel ready to place your first NFL bet, follow the steps below:
Choose a Sportsbook: the very first thing you have to do is to choose a sportsbook. You have so many options, with most of them offering a welcome bonus.
Open an account: once you choose a sportsbook, the next step is to open an account with them. You will be required to provide some personal details, including name, age, and email. You can open accounts with multiple sportsbooks to take advantage of some opportunities, like bonuses.
Make your first deposit: to activate your welcome bonus and start placing bets, you need to make a deposit. Some online betting sites offer a sign-up bonus that is up to 200% of your initial deposit. If you have accounts with multiple sportsbooks, you get to enjoy all their welcome bonuses. You should be able to make a deposit through different options such as debit and credit cards, crypto, etc.
Go to the NFL betting page and make your picks: now that you have funded your account(s), go to the NFL betting page as almost all sports are represented. Make your picks based on your strategy.
Place a wager: to enjoy the new-user promo code, a minimum limit is set for the first wager amount. Place a wager that satisfies this requirement and you have your first NFL bet.
Note: some of the most popular sportsbooks among NFL bettors are DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, etc.
Identifying Fake and Fraudulent Sportsbooks
There are so many sportsbooks you can choose from. You can even open accounts with multiple sportsbooks to enjoy their bonuses and other things. Most of these sportsbooks are genuine but there are also fake or fraudulent ones, hence it is imperative to be careful. Some of the signs of a fake or fraudulent sportsbook are discussed below:
No License or fake license
All genuine sportsbooks obtain a license to operate, having passed the necessary requirements. They often display this license on their home page or on the terms and conditions page. If a sportsbook doesn’t have a license or the license is fake, then you shouldn’t use it.
Too good to be true odds
If a sportsbook is offering outrageous odds, it could be a sign they are fake, or they have very low volume. Don’t let the urge of making quick money drive you into a trap. In fact, even if a genuine sportsbook offers outrageous odds, you shouldn’t jump at it; evaluate the reason(s) and confirm it is a good opportunity, not a trap.
Nonexistent or irresponsive customer support
Customer support is as important as every other thing a sportsbook offers. There will always be issues to solve or complaints to address, hence a team must be available to take bettors’ complaints and resolve them as quickly as possible. The best sportsbooks have responsive and fast customer support. If a sportsbook does not respond to bettors or does not resolve their complaints quickly enough, you should definitely look elsewhere. Check customer reviews to get an idea of this and make sure the reviews are not curated.
Poor website
The best sportsbooks have cool and responsive websites, allowing bettors to easily find their picks and place a bet. If the website of a sportsbook is difficult to navigate or not very responsive, don’t use it.
Delayed or withheld withdrawal
Withdrawing your winnings should be very easy and as fast as possible. Any sportsbook that delays or withholds withdrawal for whatever reason could be fake. In case of huge winnings, sportsbooks may request further information from you, but they should be able to verify everything online and process your money as fast as possible.
Common NFL Betting Mistakes to Avoid
Casual bettors and new bettors make a wide range of mistakes when betting on football games. Some of the most common mistakes to avoid are:
Lack of Sufficient Understanding of the NFL
As a sports bettor, it is imperative to have a sufficient understanding of the sport you want to bet on. You will notice we started this article with a brief overview of the NFL; we did that to show you the need to know the NFL as much as possible. You must be very familiar with the NFL to make informed bets and see good betting opportunities when they are presented.
Betting on Your Favorite Team
If you have been following football for a while, you most likely have a favorite team already. You feel so connected to this team that you know as much as possible about them. It’s only natural to want to use such knowledge to make better bets. Unfortunately, you are also emotionally involved with them. This creates a bias that could make you too optimistic or too pessimistic. Therefore, it is best to diversify your NFL betting portfolio, not betting solely on your favorite team.
Betting too often on the Favorite
Some bettors adopt the strategy of betting on favorites. While this isn’t a bad idea, it must factor in the fact that favorites don’t always win, even with their best players available. In fact, some underdogs have a history of pulling off upset in certain circumstances. Therefore, you should not blindly bet on favorites to win. Your bets should be a combination of both favorites and underdogs.
Ignoring Key Factors
A lot of bettors often don’t account for the impact of the latest news on their bets. They know they should but fail to do so for whatever reasons. You must always account for factors such as weather conditions and player injuries in your bets. For instance, the ability of football teams to move the ball down the field will be significantly impacted by rain or wind. Oddmakers consider this when setting the line, hence your failure to do the same thing will be a mistake. Sometimes, total lines can be adjusted from 55.5 to 48 points because of predicted conditions of rain and high wind.
Betting too Many Parlays
One of the best things about parlays is the potential for a huge win. This, however, also creates a common problem for bettors, with many adding too many bets to a parlay. To succeed as a bettor in the long term, what is required is to record more winnings than losses. Hence, be careful of chasing huge wins by adding too many bets to a slip.
Betting Against the Spread Only on Big Games
Big games are the most popular for all categories of bettors, hence sharper lines are often created, making it more difficult for bettors to find an edge. As a bettor, your focus shouldn’t be on a big game alone, but all games on the NFL schedule. So, betting against the spread must also apply to non-big games.
Betting Over too much
This is another common NFL betting mistake because betting on more points being scored is more appealing than the opposite. Sportsbooks already considered both offenses and defenses when setting the market line, hence both eventualities are highly probable. The historical data available also affirms this.
Betting on Strange Props
Prop bets give bettors exciting betting opportunities. However, this flexibility creates another problem. Bettors lack the proper data on some props offered by sportsbooks, hence they can’t make an informed bet. While you may win them sometimes, you will lose money in the long run. Therefore, don’t wager on any props you don’t have enough data on.
Poor Bankroll Management
Poor bankroll management is arguably the biggest mistake any bettor can make. It can see you record excessive losses before you realize there is trouble. It is very vital to stick to the betting limit you set from the start, regardless of wins or losses. An important attribute you need in bankroll management is discipline. If you ever notice you are becoming impulsive, you should take a break from betting. You can record a few consecutive painful losses; we have all been there. Don’t lose your head as a result. Just stick to your strategy. Most bettors set their bet limit at 1% to 5% of their bankroll. As the bankroll grows, the bet limit also grows.
Sticking with a Sportsbook
You don’t owe any sportsbook loyalty as a bettor. In fact, you are both out for the same thing; profit. Therefore, every opportunity to increase your profit margin must be taken. Always shop for favorable odds from different online betting sites.
Following the Public
The NFL has loads of commentary and public opinions, all of which oddsmakers often consider when setting odds. So, simply following the public can cause you to miss value bets or even lose money. While it is important to consider multiple perspectives and analysis, you must not ignore the place of your personal analysis which may concur or not.
Depending on Luck than Skill
As a new bettor, one of the first things you must fight off is depending on luck. To win NFL bets consistently, your focus must be on skills. These are the parts you can control; follow all the strategies discussed above. If you do this, you will, in fact, be better placed to enjoy luck than people who are merely hoping for luck with their picks.
Gambling under the Influence
We shouldn’t have to say this, but many bettors actually do this. Some even think they make better betting decisions when ‘high’. It is best to gamble with a very clear mind, free of the influence of alcohol or drugs because under such influence, rationality is gone. You should also try to be well rested before placing bets, because tiredness can lead to bad judgments or decisions.
Viewing Betting as a Source of Income
As we bring this how to bet on NFL games article home, there is hardly a better way to end it than this. Sports betting, like sports, is first a form of entertainment. You should always take it as this. Yes, you can make money betting on NFL games, but don’t treat it as a source of income. Otherwise, you could soon find yourself in serious gambling problems. Use some of your disposable income for NFL betting, not an amount you can’t afford to lose.
Note: the more of the above mistakes you are able to avoid, the higher your chances of winning. They may seem like a lot but they all flow into one another. So, just pay attention.
Conclusion
You have great opportunities to bet on football and win money. Everything you need to know about how to bet on NFL games has been discussed above. Always remember that your focus must first be on not losing money. Hence, it is important to play according to a strategy and stick to it. Do your due diligence and don’t wager more than you can afford to lose. Always wager responsibly.
