The NFL postseason is a great opportunity for bettors to win big.
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It’s also a time when newbies can get in on the action. Whether you are new or not, there are a few things you should look for when betting the NFL playoffs to gain an edge.
Understand the Market
Over the course of an NFL season, oddsmakers get better at setting lines on games. The betting lines on playoff games are extremely sharp. It’s important to know that going in.
Also worthy of note is the fact that oddsmakers will want to balance the action on both sides of a bet. Lines on playoff games often move based on the betting public. The NFL playoffs attract a number of recreational bettors.
It’s also important to understand that the public tends to be influenced by recent events and they tend to bet on favorites and Overs. Knowing this information can help you determine where there is value on an NFL playoff game.
Don’t Bet Every Game
You usually don’t bet on all 16 games when the NFL schedule has a full slate of games during the regular season. Don’t feel like you have to bet on every playoff game in a given week either.
The key is to find the games where there is the most value in order to maximize your returns. This is really no different than the regular season.
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Trends to Watch
Betting on underdogs in the NFL playoffs is usually a better bet than playing favorites. Since 2003, postseason underdogs are 95-76-4 ATS. Where the real action is though is betting underdogs on the moneyline.
Betting NFL playoff underdogs has been much more profitable than betting on playoff underdogs against the spread. In finding the right underdog to bet on, you can consider some of the following.
Quarterbacks starting a playoff for the first time in their careers usually have a hard time. NFL quarterbacks starting their first playoff game against an opposing quarterback that has at least one postseason start are 14-30 SU and 12-31-1 ATS in the past 18 seasons.
Also, be careful when considering a playoff rematch. Bettors tend to overrate the results of two playoff opponents that played during the regular season. One thing to consider is that point spreads tend to favor the team that won or covered the regular season matchup.
Indoor vs. Outdoor
NFL playoff games played in outdoor stadiums tend to go Under the Total. In all playoff games since 2003, the Under is 73-56-2 in outdoor games. The Under is also more profitable in wild card games played outside (34-13) as compared to those in other rounds (39-43).
The opposite is true of NFL playoff games in indoor stadiums. In the past 17 seasons, the Over is 29-13 in games played in indoor stadiums. This makes sense. Offenses don’t have to deal with the elements. Where bettors can really find value on the Total is in games where the Over-Under is set at 45.5 or higher. In 32 such games since 2003, the Over is 24-8.
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The Matchups
Bettors have to understand matchups in NFL playoff betting. Sometimes, it’s the two teams that meet in a certain round. That’s why since 2000 we have seen four teams win the Super Bowl even though they were wild card entries in the playoffs.
Don’t overthink home-field advantage either. In the past ten seasons, there have been nine road victories in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
In addition to team and individual matchups on the field, don’t forget to weigh the coaching matchup. Often, there is an obvious coaching mismatch which bettors can take advantage of in making an NFL playoff wager.
