NFL Free Agency and Super Bowl LV Futures

With the live sports betting world on hold for now, the start of the NFL’s free agency season garnered most of the attention this week from avid bettors looking for some action.

Many of the top online sportsbooks added some betting options to their NFL board with props covering some of the biggest free agents available.

At the top of the list was future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. Going back to early February, numerous online books offered betting props concerning his NFL future. Most odds favored a return to the New England Patriots’ starting lineup.


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Brady shook things up early this week by announcing he was moving on. A few days later, he came to terms with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take over a starting role that was previously held by Jameis Winston.

NFL RELATED: How the NFL’s Biggest Free Agency News Impacted Betting Markets

Super Bowl LV Futures

That lone deal had a major impact on the NFL Super Bowl LV futures.

New England was fourth or fifth on most lists when the odds were first released. One prominent online book had the Patriots’ odds set at +1600Tampa Bay was much farther down the list as a moderate longshot.

Once Brady inked his new deal, that same book moved New England to +2500 odds and elevated the Buccaneers to +1800 as fifth-favorites on the updated Super Bowl futures list.

This move is geared towards protecting the book’s interest with anticipated money coming in on Tampa Bay.

No other single free agent will have that kind impact on the betting odds, but as the free agency signing period wears on, the overall numbers will continue to shift.

The reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs remain at the top of the list as +650 favorites. They should be able to hold that top spot all the way into Week 1 of the new season.

The Baltimore Ravens (+800) and the San Francisco 49ers (+1000) round out the Top 3 teams.


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The New Orleans Saints are next at +1600 and they cemented their spot as a top favorite in the NFC by resigning another future Hall of Fame quarterback. Drew Brees should remain under center for at least the next two seasons.

Loaded Free Agency Class

Free agent signings are just part of the player movement process that will have an impact on all NFL futures odds. Trades are back in vogue in the league and more than a few players have been traded over the past few days.

Another factor is the outright release of a few high-profile players to create more cap space. 

Obviously, Winston will be on that available player list. Joining the former Heisman Trophy winner is All-Pro running back Todd Gurley after is release by the Los Angles Rams [ Editors Note: Gurley signed with the Atlanta Falcons on the 20th, a 1-year deal for $6M ($11M/year in total with money from contract with the Rams). If there was one place for Gurley to resurrect his career, it’s in Atlanta, where he will play in front of legions of fans after his college football career at Georgia. ]

With the Carolina Panthers coming to terms with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, Cam Newton will also be looking for a new home.

Veteran quarterback Philip Rivers came to terms on a one-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts. With one year left on his contract, current starter Jacoby Brissett’s future will the team is now clouded.

Free agency and the start of the league’s business year is just the first of two major impacts on NFL futures. The next will be the 2020 NFL draft scheduled for the end of April. Following all of those new additions, bettors will have a clearer picture of the actual roster for all 32 teams.

About the Author

A big part of the services that my marketing company, Blue Pointe Advisors, LLC offers is written content for sports betting websites.  I have been working as a full-time sports betting writer for the past nine years following a previous career in the field of sales and marketing.

I consider myself extremely fortunate to be able to write about my true passion in life; the world of sports. I also enjoy concentrating the bulk of my pieces towards the betting angle in sports.

It is always a challenge to take past results and current form to try and correctly determine a future result. Sports brings out the unpredictability in what should be a fairly predictable outcome based on the stats, facts and recent trends in a particular matchup. The one thing that I have learned over the past decade or so is that when it comes to betting on sports there is no such thing as a lock.

The main objective with my writing style is to create insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player. While there are times when my predictions fall well short of the actual outcome, I still enjoy trying to come up with a logical explanation to support my views on every pick I make.

My love of sports started a long time ago when I was just a kid growing up just outside Philadelphia. While I was a big Phillies, Flyers and 76ers fan, my number one team was always the Eagles. My dad was a season ticket holder from 1961 to 2002 and I would honestly say that he missed less than a handful of games than more than a few dismal seasons.

I was fortunate enough to go to a number of Eagles’ games back in the day including the 1980 NFC Championship when Wilbert Montgomery ran roughshod over the bitter rival Dallas Cowboys to lead Philly to their first appearance in a Super Bowl. Flash forward 40 years later and am I still celebrating the thrilling victory over New England in Super Bowl LVII. I know that my dad was smiling down on that one.