NFL insights: Week 14 odds, props and picks

From an opening line of 14.5, the Cowboys are pushing the largest spread in the NFL this season to three-touchdown territory for Sunday’s home game with the Houston Texans.

The number could continue to climb and make Dallas a historically large favorite.

That’s because the Texans are strangers to the end zone with seven total touchdowns in the past five games. The Cowboys?

Let’s just say they don’t have that problem. Dallas scored eight touchdowns last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

The last NFL team favored by 18 was the Arizona Cardinals last season against … the Houston Texans. Arizona covered -18 with a 31-5 victory over the Texans, who also lost as 17.5-point dogs to the Bills (40-0) in 2021.

Here’s a look at a few other numbers that might catch your eye entering Week 14:

–Dallas -4, first quarter spread, vs Houston (-110 at FanDuel)
The Cowboys aren’t killer in the first quarter, but Dallas does have 31 points in the first quarter in five games since Dak Prescott’s return from a thumb injury. Houston has 20 points in the first quarter — total — in 12 games in 2022.

–Chiefs TE Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions vs. Broncos (-105 at Caesars)
Kelce has 90 career receptions in 15 games against the Broncos and was limited to eight total catches the past two weeks.

–Steelers QB Kenny Pickett over 0.5 interceptions (-108 at Caesars)
Teams aren’t running the ball against the Ravens since LB Roquan Smith arrived. With a secondary featuring Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and safety Marcus Williams, Pickett’s four-game streak without an interception is in peril.

–Chargers vs Dolphins over 51.5 total points (-110 at BetMGM) and four or more first-half touchdowns (+170 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The over hit in 80 percent of Miami’s last five games and 60 percent of Los Angeles’ last 10.

–Bills -6 first-half spread vs. NYJ (-110 at FanDuel)
Buffalo put 10 points or more on the board in the second quarter alone in seven of the past eight games and had 14 first-half points against the Jets in the previous meeting this season. Only one of the Bills’ past eight opponents topped 10 points (Detroit, 14) in the first half. The Vikings had 20 points against the Jets in the first half last week, the third time in four games New York allowed double digits in the opening two quarters. The Jets have 12 total first-quarter points against the Bills in the past seven meetings.

–Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill alternate yardage total, over 124.5 yards (+145 at DraftKings)
Second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage, Hill has 140-plus receiving yards six times in 12 games this season. Last December against the Chargers (then as a WR for the Chiefs), Hill went bonkers: 12 catches for 148 yards, touchdown. Also see: Chargers injury report.

–Browns RB Nick Chubb over 74.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Chubb has 35 “big play” runs this season, which is any carry resulting in a gain of 10-plus yards. He’s historically stellar in the division matchup with over 100 yards rushing in three of the past four meetings with the Bengals.

–Field Level Media