With the NBA playoffs charging toward the conference finals, basketball fans around the world have one eye on next month’s Tokyo Olympics Men’s Basketball Tournament. There are still four spots up for grabs in the group play, with qualifying tournaments in Canada, Croatia, Serbia, and Lithuania taking place later in June.
Rosters are not yet finalized, and players who make the NBA Finals may be hard-pressed to also play in Tokyo. The current FIBA roster deadline is July 5, but with the NBA Finals scheduled for July 8-22, multiple nations have requested an extension.
Group A will consist of the United States, France, Iran, and whoever qualifies from the Canada tournament, which could be Greece or the Czech Republic. Group B features Australia and Nigeria along with the winners of the Croatia and Serbia qualifiers, which in addition to the host nations could be Germany, Russia, Puerto Rico, or Brazil. Finally, Group C contains Spain, Japan, Argentina, and whoever wins the Lithuania qualifier, which includes Slovenia.
Will the American Dominance Continue?
After three Olympics in charge and three gold medal wins, head coach Mike Krzyzewski has stepped away from the team, and San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is now the head man. Pop was an assistant to Coach K during the recent dominant run, but his first foray with Team USA came up medal-less at the 2019 World Championships.
Jerry Colangelo took over as the architect for building Team USA after the flop in Athens in 2004. This will be his last Olympics before turning over the program to Hall of Famer and former Olympian Grant Hill. Under Colangelo’s leadership, Team USA is 24-0 in the Olympics.
The Americans are heavy favorites to win a fourth straight Olympics and their seventh in eight tries since NBA players were ruled eligible. They are -305 even before the roster or entire field of opponents are set.
The roster is the big question mark. Colangelo named 57 finalists in March, with 16 of whom have won gold medals before and 24 who have played in the FIBA World Cup. Some of those players ended the NBA season injured, like Victor Oladipo and Gordon Hayward. It will be interesting to see who arrives in Las Vegas for a mini-camp on July 1 that includes exhibition games with Spain, Nigeria, Argentina, and Australia.
The NBA playoffs could add another wrench to the roster plans. The Summer Olympics begin on July 23, with the first men’s basketball game on July 25. If the NBA Finals extends all the way, game seven would be on July 22.
Would such a scenario keep veterans like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, or Chris Paul from the Olympics if their team makes the final? The same can be asked of Greece with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Serbia with Nikola Jokic, France with Rudy Gobert and Nicolas Batum, or Slovenia with Luka Doncic. Greece, Serbia, and Slovenia likely will have to qualify without their best players as the NBA playoffs continue.
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Other Contenders
If the United States are to stumble, there are a couple of teams waiting in the wings to claim the gold medal on August 7. Spain is +800 to win it all after taking the 2019 FIBA World Cup and finishing runner up to the USA in the 2008 and 2012 Olympics. They lost to the US in the semifinals in 2016 by six points, and the 2012 final was decided by seven.
Spain could have NBA veterans Ricky Rubio, Marc Gasol, and Rudy Fernandez leading the way. The trio helped Spain to the 2019 FIBA World Cup with a finals win over Argentina and could make for a great futures bet this summer.
Serbia, the 2016 silver medalists, are also +800. The big caveat here is that they still must qualify, and while they do host the tournament, they could be without Nikola Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Boban Marjanovic. All three helped Serbia to a fifth-place finish at the 2019 World Cup but are still in the NBA playoffs.
France took third at the 2019 World Cup and made the quarterfinals at the 2016 Olympics. They are +1700, and while Tony Parker has retired, they still expect to have Gobert and Batum along with Evan Fournier.
Australia has finished fourth at the last two major tournaments, and they are +2500 to win gold in Tokyo. They may have to wait on Joe Ingles, but veterans Patty Mills and Matthew Dellavedova are not in the NBA playoffs and should be ready for a run in Tokyo.
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Longshots
If Slovenia can get in through the qualifier, likely without Dallas star Doncic, they are intriguing at +5000. Goran Dragic has retired from international play, but his brother Zoran could be a factor.
Greece is +2500, but they have a very tough qualifier in Canada and could be without Giannis and Thanasis Antetokounmpo, both on the Milwaukee Bucks. Qualifying in Canada would also put the Greeks in Group A with France and the United States.
Argentina and Lithuania are both +3000. Neither country is loaded with NBA players as they have been in the past, but both have tasted international success and know what it takes to win games at the Olympics or World Cup.
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Summer Olympics Men’s Basketball Winner Odds
United States -350
Serbia +800
Spain +800
France +1700
Australia +2500
Greece +2500
Lithuania +3000
Argentina +3000
Croatia +5000
Slovenia +5000
Turkey +5000
Venezuela +5000
Canada +10000
Italy +10000
Brazil +15000
Czech Republic +15000
Germany +15000
Poland +15000
Russia +15000
Dominican Republic +40000
Puerto Rico +40000
Nigeria +50000
Tunisia +50000
Angola +100000
Iran +100000
Mexico +100000
