The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues to grow in popularity. Today, we’re going to discuss some tips for betting on UFC fights, which will help beginners understand how to make money.
Here are the best tips for betting on UFC fights:
Isolate the Best Value on a Fight Card
The big favorites will win at a higher rate than other fighters, but are often not the best value. If your picks have average odds of -300, you need to win 75% of your bets to break even. If the average odds of your picks are -150, your break even percentage is 60%, which is a lot easier to maintain long-term.
If you expect a fighter to win 80% of the time, but the fighter’s odds are -500 (83.3% break even), there’s no value betting on the favorite. If you handicap a fight and you predict a fighter has a 50% chance to win and you can get +150 odds (40% break even), that’s a value bet worth placing.
Stylistic Mismatches
Identifying the biggest stylistic mismatches will help you win when betting on the UFC. For example, if one fighter is an elite wrestler and their opponent has weak grappling, the wrestler is often worth targeting. If a fighter has knockout power and is facing a fighter with a weak chin, this is a stylistic mismatch to target.
Parlays Are Your Friend
In most sports, parlays aren’t a smart bet, but that’s not the case with the UFC. If you expect two favorites at -250 odds to dominate, you can parlay them together and the payout is close to even money (Bet $100 to Win $96), which is a better idea than betting $250 on each favorite to win $100.
Utilize Alternative Markets
Let’s say you like a -400 favorite to win his fight by TKO/KO. Rather than risking $400 to win $100 on the fighter to win straight-up, you can bet on the fighter to win by TKO/KO at much better odds.
Let’s say two durable wrestlers are fighting. You should look to target the total rounds market. There’s a good chance the fight will go over X rounds or go the distance, which is a market you can bet on. You don’t always need to predict the winner of a fight when betting on the UFC.
Analyze the Stats and Trends
There are lots of UFC statistics widely available online to analyze. You should analyze things like height, reach, striking statistics, defensive statistics, takedowns, submissions and more.
It’s important to watch previous fights to see how fighter’s are performing. Is a fighter a finisher or winning by decisions? How long of a layoff has a fighter had? Is a fighter coming back from injury? These are all important questions to answer when handicapping UFC fights.
These tips for betting on the UFC will guide you in the right direction if you’re a beginner. As you watch the fights and understand fighting styles, you’ll start to understand how to identify value picks.
