NBA
NBA · Friday 23 October
Knicks vs Celtics Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. Our number has Boston 4.7 points above the market, and we bet at 5.
The New York Knicks are +114 and the Boston Celtics -135 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 44.9% for New York and 55.1% for Boston. Our number gives the Celtics 59.8% at home. The gap is 4.7 points, short of the 5-point threshold that turns a gap into a bet.
How 59.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. New York played one; Boston played none.
The Celtics went 30-11 at TD Garden, a 73.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Knicks went 22-19 on the road, a 46.3% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 59.8% for Boston and 40.2% for New York.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 the two prices come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Celtics are 55.1% and the Knicks 44.9%.
Both teams opened 2026-27 at 0-1. Boston lost 121-113 at the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday 20 October, and New York lost 106-100 to the Philadelphia 76ers the same night. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so neither game is in it. Summer roster changes are outside the method too.
Boston at home, New York on the road
At home the Celtics scored 114.8 points a game and allowed 107.0, a margin of 7.8. The Knicks on the road scored 113.6 and allowed 111.0, a margin of 2.6. Those are the two halves our number uses.
The halves the method leaves out favour New York. The Knicks went 30-10 at home, scoring 119.0 and allowing 109.0. The Celtics went 26-15 on the road, scoring 114.9 and allowing 107.3. A road record of 26-15 for Boston and a home record of 30-10 for New York say nothing about this game, because it is played in Boston.
The season around it
Boston finished 56-26, the 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, scoring 114.9 and allowing 107.2, a difference of 7.7 a game. New York finished 53-29, the 3 seed, scoring 116.5 and allowing 110.1, a difference of 6.4. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, the Celtics went 10-10 and the Knicks 11-5. Boston won 38 games by 10 or more and lost 10 that way; New York’s figures were 32 and 19.
The playoffs went the other way. The Celtics lost a seven-game series to the Philadelphia 76ers, 3-4. The Knicks won four series: 4-2 against the Atlanta Hawks, 4-0 against the 76ers, 4-0 against the Cleveland Cavaliers and 4-1 against the San Antonio Spurs. Playoff games are outside our number.
The Knicks won three of the four meetings. In Boston, the Celtics won 123-117 on 2 December 2025 and the Knicks won 111-89 on 8 February 2026; those games are in our number, two of Boston’s 41 home games and two of New York’s 41 road games. In New York, the Knicks won 105-95 on 24 October 2025 and 112-106 on 9 April 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.7 points toward Boston, against a threshold of 5. The rule is set before the price is read, and 4.7 is below it.
The line read Knicks +114 and Celtics -135 on 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved since opening. At -135 the price sits close to our reading of last season, and the 0.3 points that would make it a bet are well inside what one summer of roster changes can move.
What kills the bet
Here it is the other way round: a better price makes one. Against the Knicks at +114, the Celtics become a bet at -131 or longer. At -121 or longer, Boston is a bet whatever New York is priced at.
For the Knicks to become the bet, they would need +220 or longer with Boston at -135. They are +114.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, has Devin Carter (illness) out for Boston and no one listed for New York. Our method does not use the list, so it does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 223.5, over -110 and under -110. The Celtics’ home games went over 223.5 in 18 of 41, a 43.9% rate, and averaged 221.8 points. The Knicks’ road games went over in 20 of 41, a 48.8% rate, and averaged 224.6. Across the full season Boston’s games went over in 37 of 82 and New York’s in 42 of 82.
The average of the two venue rates is 46.3% for the over, against 50.0% priced. That leans to the under by 3.7 points, under the threshold, so the total is a pass.
The spread is Celtics -2.5 at -110 and Knicks +2.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Boston beat -2.5 in 29 of 41 home games, and New York beat +2.5 in 24 of 41 road games. Averaged, Celtics -2.5 lands 56.1% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 6.1 points. Our method stakes the moneyline, so this is a lean on the same side as the moneyline gap, never a second bet. The moneyline is the market the method prices, and on it the call is no bet.
Knicks at Celtics, Friday 23 October, 7:00 PM ET, TD Garden, Boston. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC.