NBA
NBA · Friday 23 October
Trail Blazers vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Kings at +245. Our number gives Sacramento at home 46.3%; the price gives them 27.8%.
The Portland Trail Blazers are -305 and the Sacramento Kings +245 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 72.2% for Portland and 27.8% for Sacramento. Last season’s home and road records put the Kings 18.5 points higher than the price does. We bet at 5.
How 46.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team played one.
The Kings went 15-26 at Golden 1 Center, a 36.6% home win rate over 41 games. The Trail Blazers went 18-23 on the road and lost 23 of 41, a 56.1% road loss rate. The midpoint is 46.3% for Sacramento and 53.7% for Portland.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -305 and +245 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Trail Blazers are 72.2% and the Kings 27.8%.
This season is one game old for each team, and neither game is in our number. Portland beat the Phoenix Suns 124-83 on Wednesday 21 October. Sacramento lost 121-96 at the LA Clippers the same night. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so it does not see either result or any roster change over the summer. That is the main risk in this bet.
Sacramento at home, Portland on the road
At home the Kings scored 112.6 points a game and allowed 119.8, a deficit of 7.2. The Trail Blazers on the road scored 112.7 and allowed 116.8, a deficit of 4.1. The gap between the two road-and-home margins is far smaller than the price implies.
The halves the method leaves out: Portland at home went 24-17, scoring 118.3 and allowing 114.8. Sacramento on the road went 7-34, scoring 109.4 and allowing 122.2. That road record is the weakest number on either side, and this game is not played on the road for the Kings.
The season around it
The Kings finished 22-60, 14th in the West, scoring 111.0 a game and allowing 121.0, a deficit of 10.0. They lost 40 games by 10 or more and won six by that much. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 10-11, with three going to overtime. They missed the playoffs.
The Trail Blazers finished 42-40, seventh in the West, scoring 115.5 and allowing 115.8, a deficit of 0.3. They won 23 games by 10 or more and lost 18 by that much. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 11-12, with three going to overtime. In the playoffs they lost 4-1 to the San Antonio Spurs.
Portland won all four games between the teams. In Sacramento, the Trail Blazers won 98-93 on 20 December 2025 and 117-110 on 18 January 2026; those games are in our number, two of the Kings’ 41 home games and two of the Trail Blazers’ 41 road games. In Portland, the Trail Blazers won 134-133 in overtime on 18 December 2025 and 122-110 on 12 April 2026; those are in neither half. Four games is too few to say anything about this matchup.
Pick: Kings +245
Bet the Kings on the moneyline at +245. The gap is 18.5 points toward Sacramento, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Trail Blazers -305 and Kings +245 on 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Trail Blazers -230 and Kings +190, when the market gave Sacramento 33.1%. Since opening it has moved toward Portland by 5.3 points, so the Kings price has grown longer.
What kills the bet
A shorter Sacramento price. At +142 or longer the Kings are a bet whatever Portland is priced at; with the Trail Blazers at -305, they stay a bet down to -113.
For Portland to become the bet, the Trail Blazers would need a price of +106 or longer whatever Sacramento is priced at, or +263 or longer against the current Kings price. They are -305.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, has Ben Simmons (Achilles), Dylan Cardwell (calf) and Maxime Raynaud (knee) out and Malik Monk (ankle) day-to-day for Sacramento. For Portland it has Shaedon Sharpe (knee) out and Branden Carlson (concussion) and Chris Youngblood (ankle) day-to-day. None of these changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Sacramento a 53.7% chance of losing. The case is that +245 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 232.5, over -112 and under -108. The Kings’ home games went over 232.5 in 20 of 41, a 48.8% rate. The Trail Blazers’ road games went over in 17 of 41, a 41.5% rate. Sacramento’s home games averaged 232.4 points and Portland’s road games 229.5. Across all 82 games, each team went over in 40.
Averaged, those two rates give the over 45.1%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%, so our count leans to the under by 5.3 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Kings +7.5 at -115 and Trail Blazers -7.5 at -105; it opened Kings +6.5. Sacramento beat this line at home in 22 of 41 games. Portland covered -7.5 on the road in 12 of 41. Averaged, Kings +7.5 lands 62.2% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 11.1 points. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Kings at +245.
Trail Blazers at Kings, Friday 23 October, 10:00 PM ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 results and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC.