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Hamilton Tiger-Cats

CFL1 prediction

The Tiger-Cats won 11 of 18 in 2025 and covered the spread only 8 times, the widest gap between wins and covers of the nine CFL teams. Laying points in Hamilton was where it showed: seven home games as favorites, two covers.

Wins that did not cover

Watch the number at home. That is where Hamilton’s season and Hamilton’s spread record parted.

The Tiger-Cats 2025 regular season, game by game2025-06-07 at Calgary Stampeders 26-382025-06-14 v Saskatchewan Roughriders 23-282025-06-27 v Montreal Alouettes 35-172025-07-04 at Toronto Argonauts 51-382025-07-12 v Ottawa Redblacks 23-202025-07-20 at Ottawa Redblacks 30-152025-07-27 at BC Lions 37-332025-08-02 at Edmonton Elks 28-242025-08-07 v BC Lions 38-412025-08-16 at Saskatchewan Roughriders 9-292025-09-01 v Toronto Argonauts 33-352025-09-06 at Montreal Alouettes 26-92025-09-12 v Winnipeg Blue Bombers 32-212025-09-20 v Edmonton Elks 29-272025-09-27 at Winnipeg Blue Bombers 3-402025-10-04 at Toronto Argonauts 47-292025-10-11 v Calgary Stampeders 20-372025-10-24 v Ottawa Redblacks 35-15Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
11-7 in 18 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The Tiger-Cats went 11-7 and covered 8 of 18, 44.4%. Five teams covered more often; Montreal and Toronto covered at the same rate. They were favored 13 times, as often as BC and less only than Saskatchewan, and covered 5 of those 13. As underdogs, five games, they covered three.

Home and away

At home they were 5-4 and covered 3 of 9. Only Ottawa covered less often at home; Montreal and Toronto matched it. Laying points there, seven times, Hamilton won four and covered two. On the road the picture flips: 6-3 straight up, 5 covers in 9, and three of those covers came in the six road games where Hamilton was favored.

The Tiger-Cats at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (9)won 5 (55.6%)covered 3 of 9 (33.3%)Away (9)won 6 (66.7%)covered 5 of 9 (55.6%)Favorite (13)won 8 (61.5%)covered 5 of 13 (38.5%)Underdog (5)won 3 (60.0%)covered 3 of 5 (60.0%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The two Elks games say it in miniature: wins of 28-24 and 29-27, laying 4.5 and 5.5, and no cover in either. The worst single result was a 40-3 loss at Winnipeg on 27 September as 1.5-point favorites.

The months

July was the high: 4-0, three covers. August gave it straight back, 1-2 with no covers in three. September and October together went 5-3, four covers in eight.

The opponents

The Ottawa Redblacks lost all three meetings, Hamilton covering two, the last 35-15 laying 13.5. The Toronto Argonauts fit the home-and-away pattern exactly: Hamilton won 51-38 and 47-29 in Toronto, covering both, and lost 35-33 at home to them while laying 4.5. Against the Calgary Stampeders and the Saskatchewan Roughriders it was 0-2 each, no covers in four.

The Tiger-Cats against the teams they played mostOttawa Redblacks3-0, covered 2Toronto Argonauts2-1, covered 2BC Lions1-1, covered 1Calgary Stampeders0-2, covered 0Edmonton Elks2-0, covered 0Montreal Alouettes2-0, covered 2Saskatchewan Roughriders0-2, covered 0Winnipeg Blue Bombers1-1, covered 1
2025 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

Hamilton scored 29.17 points a game, second only to BC, and allowed 27.56. The total still split 10 unders and 8 overs: nothing to lean on.

Questions and answers

How often did the Tiger-Cats cover as home favorites in 2025?

Twice in seven games, while winning four of them.

Were Hamilton’s road games a better spread bet?

In 2025, yes: 5 covers in 9 away, against 3 in 9 at home.

Which CFL opponents did Hamilton fail to cover against twice?

Calgary, Saskatchewan and Edmonton: 0 covers in two games against each, though Hamilton beat Edmonton both times.