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Montreal Alouettes

CFL2 predictions

Getting points, the Alouettes covered twice in seven games in 2025, the lowest underdog cover rate in the CFL. Laying them, they covered 6 of 11, a rate only Edmonton beat.

Favorite, yes. Underdog, no.

The Montreal read is the role. As favorites the Alouettes went 8-3 and covered 6 of 11, 54.5%; only Edmonton, favored twice and 2 for 2, covered at a higher rate. As underdogs they went 2-5 and covered 2 of 7, 28.6%, last of the nine teams.

The Alouettes at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (9)won 4 (44.4%)covered 3 of 9 (33.3%)Away (9)won 6 (66.7%)covered 5 of 9 (55.6%)Favorite (11)won 8 (72.7%)covered 6 of 11 (54.5%)Underdog (7)won 2 (28.6%)covered 2 of 7 (28.6%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

At home as underdogs it was 0-3 with no covers: 34-6 to Saskatchewan, 26-13 to Winnipeg, 26-9 to Hamilton.

Home drags, the road pays

Overall: 10-8, 8 covers in 18, 44.4%, with five clubs ahead on cover rate and Hamilton and Toronto level. Home was the drag, 4-5 straight up and 3 covers in 9, with only Ottawa lower. Away, 6-3 and 5 covers, three of them in five road games as favorites.

The Alouettes 2025 regular season, game by game2025-06-06 v Toronto Argonauts 28-102025-06-13 at Ottawa Redblacks 39-182025-06-19 at Edmonton Elks 38-282025-06-27 at Hamilton Tiger-Cats 17-352025-07-05 v BC Lions 20-212025-07-17 v Toronto Argonauts 26-252025-07-24 at Calgary Stampeders 23-212025-08-02 v Saskatchewan Roughriders 6-342025-08-08 v Edmonton Elks 22-232025-08-16 at BC Lions 18-362025-08-21 v Winnipeg Blue Bombers 13-262025-09-06 v Hamilton Tiger-Cats 9-262025-09-13 at Saskatchewan Roughriders 48-312025-09-19 at Toronto Argonauts 21-192025-09-26 v Calgary Stampeders 38-202025-10-13 v Ottawa Redblacks 30-102025-10-18 at Ottawa Redblacks 39-282025-10-25 at Winnipeg Blue Bombers 10-19Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
10-8 in 18 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

June opened with three straight covers as favorites, by 18, 21 and 10 points. August broke the season: 0-4 straight up, no covers. Then the turn. Five straight wins from 13 September to 18 October, four of them covers, including 30-10 and 39-28 over Ottawa laying 12.5 and 10.5.

The opponents

The Ottawa Redblacks were the bet: three games, three wins, three covers. The Toronto Argonauts were beaten three times and covered against once: 26-25 laying 9.5 and 21-19 laying 5.5 both fell short. The Calgary Stampeders lost twice to Montreal, 23-21 and 38-20, and Montreal covered both. The BC Lions, Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Winnipeg Blue Bombers beat Montreal twice each, no covers in six.

The Alouettes against the teams they played mostOttawa Redblacks3-0, covered 3Toronto Argonauts3-0, covered 1BC Lions0-2, covered 0Calgary Stampeders2-0, covered 2Edmonton Elks1-1, covered 1Hamilton Tiger-Cats0-2, covered 0Saskatchewan Roughriders1-1, covered 1Winnipeg Blue Bombers0-2, covered 0
2025 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

Ten unders, eight overs across the season, but split by venue it is sharper: seven unders in nine at home, six overs in nine away. Montreal scored 24.72 and allowed 23.89 a game, and its posted totals averaged 49.89, the lowest of the nine teams’.

Questions and answers

What was Montreal’s cover rate as an underdog in 2025?

Two covers in seven games, 28.6%, the lowest in the CFL.

Did the Alouettes cover when favored?

Six times in 11, 54.5%, second only to Edmonton’s 2 of 2.

How did Montreal do against Ottawa on the spread in 2025?

Three meetings, three wins, three covers.

Past games

  1. Alouettes at Tiger-Cats · 18 SepThe Montreal Alouettes vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats recap delivered the result the pregame handicap called for, even if the fourth quarter became…
  2. Alouettes at Lions · 12 SepThe Montreal vs BC rematch flipped the first meeting decisively.

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