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Arizona State vs BYU Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Oct 2026

Our number has BYU by 11.8. At +16.5, take Arizona State.

No. 8 BYU is a 16.5-point favorite over Arizona State at DraftKings. Our number is BYU by 11.8. The gap is 4.7 points on Arizona State’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.

Arizona State at BYU kicks off Saturday 31 October at 3:30 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo. It is a Big 12 game.

The prices and what they say

The spread is BYU -16.5 at -108 and Arizona State +16.5 at -112, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. BYU opened at -17.5.

BYU opened -17.5 and is -16.5 nowBYU's line, from the open to nowpickopen -17.5now -16.5Negative numbers mean BYU is giving points. The line has moved 1 point toward Arizona State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

The moneyline is BYU -750 and Arizona State +525. A book builds in a margin, an extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With it removed, the market gives BYU an 84.7% chance to win and Arizona State 15.3%. ESPN’s FPI has BYU at 90.3% and Arizona State at 9.7%. Our method does not stake the moneyline. These figures are context for the spread.

How 11.8 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts FBS opponents only, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are played at neutral sites and are left out.

BYU is 8-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 15.1 points a game. Arizona State is 3-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 8.4 a game. Half the difference gives BYU by 11.8.

Moneyline implies Arizona State 15.3 percent, BYU 84.7 percentChance to win the game, as pricedArizona State 15.3%BYU 84.7%From DraftKings's moneylines, Arizona State +525 and BYU -750, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

The rule is fixed before the pick. A side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart. It is no bet when either sample has fewer than 4 games. BYU’s sample is 8 games and Arizona State’s is 7, so both clear the minimum. The gap against the spread of 16.5 is 4.7 points.

This season so far

Our number does not use this season’s records as a separate input. BYU is 6-1 and 3-1 in the Big 12. It lost its last game 39-31 at UCF on 24 October. Against FBS teams it is 5-1 with an average margin of +7.7. That is well short of the 16.5 points the spread asks for.

Arizona State is 4-3 and 2-2 in the Big 12, and won its last game 28-17 over Kansas State on 24 October. Against FBS teams it is 3-3 with an average margin of -9.3. The season form leans toward BYU. Our call rests on the two-season venue splits, which the season figures do not override.

BYU at home, Arizona State on the road

BYU has not lost at home to an FBS team in 2025 or 2026: 8-0. Three of those wins came this season: 28-17 over Arizona on 12 September, 24-10 over Iowa State on 9 October and 28-24 over Notre Dame on 17 October. The 4-point win over Notre Dame was the closest of the three.

Arizona State’s road half is the weaker one. This season it lost 48-20 at Texas A&M on 12 September and 53-25 at Texas Tech on 17 October. The 3-4 road record against FBS teams covers both seasons, and those two losses are the 2026 part of it.

The method leaves out the other halves. BYU’s road games this season were a 41-23 win at Colorado State, a 17-10 win at TCU and the 39-31 loss at UCF. Arizona State’s home games against FBS teams were a 55-19 loss to Baylor, a 30-12 win over Hawai’i and the 28-17 win over Kansas State. Its 24-17 win over Kansas was at a neutral site and is outside the number. Neither team’s FCS win counts: BYU’s 63-7 over Utah Tech and Arizona State’s 70-7 over Morgan State.

The season around it

BYU scores 33.1 points a game this season and allows 18.6, a margin of +14.6 including the Utah Tech game. Arizona State scores 30.9 and allows 29.9, a margin of +1.0.

2026 point margin in every game, BYU and Arizona State2026: point margin in every game so farBYU6-1, +14.6 a game+56+11+18+7+14+4-8Arizona State4-3, +1.0 a game+63-28+7-36+18-28+11Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

In 2025 BYU went 12-2, 6-0 at home and 5-1 on the road, with an average margin of +12.3. It closed with a 25-21 bowl win over Georgia Tech on 27 December 2025, at a neutral site. Arizona State went 8-5, 5-2 at home and 3-2 on the road, at +1.3 a game. It lost its bowl game 42-39 to Duke on 31 December 2025, also at a neutral site.

2025 point margin in every game, BYU and Arizona State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedBYU12-2, +12.3 a game+69+24+21+3+14+6+3+14-22+31+12+20-27+4Arizona State8-5, +1.3 a game+19-4+19+3+3-32+4-8+5+2+25-16-3Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026.

The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026, so no game between them is inside our number.

Pick: Arizona State +16.5

Arizona State +16.5 at -112, DraftKings, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. BYU opened at -17.5.

The gap is 4.7 points against a 3-point threshold. The base is 15 games, split 8 and 7. BYU’s half is the stronger one. Arizona State’s half carries two 28-point road losses from this season.

What kills the bet

The line. Arizona State is a bet at +14.8 or better. Below that, the gap falls under 3 points and the call becomes a pass. BYU would need to be -8.8 or shorter to be the bet.

The risk is this season’s form. Arizona State’s two road games against FBS teams in 2026 were losses by 28 points. Its FBS margin is -9.3. Our number trusts two seasons of venue splits over six games of form.

The injury list on ESPN’s game page, read 30 October 2026 at 00:39 UTC, carries no entries for either team. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 48.5, down from 51.5 at the open. The over is -108 and the under -112.

Game totals for BYU and Arizona State against 48.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 48.5203040506070809048.5BYU8 of 19 over 48.5Arizona State9 of 18 over 48.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, BYU’s games went over 48.5 in 8 of 19, and Arizona State’s in 9 of 18. This season BYU’s six FBS games produced 45, 64, 27, 34, 52 and 70 points. Arizona State’s produced 68, 41, 74, 42, 78 and 45.

No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread only, and these counts are a count, not a number. They split either side of 48.5.

Arizona State at BYU, Saturday 31 October, 3:30 PM ET, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 9. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026, 00:39 UTC.