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Boise State vs Washington State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our number has Washington State by 1.9. At +14.5, take Washington State.

No. 21 Boise State is a 14.5-point favorite at Washington State at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Our number is Washington State by 1.9. The gap is 16.4 points on Washington State’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.

The prices and what they say

DraftKings has Washington State +14.5 at -115 and Boise State -14.5 at -105. Washington State opened at +14.

Washington State opened +14 and is +14.5 nowWashington State's line, from the open to nowpickopen +14now +14.5Negative numbers mean Washington State is giving points. The line has moved 0.5 points toward Boise State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

The moneyline is Boise State -625 and Washington State +455. A book builds in a margin: an extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With the margin removed, those prices give Boise State an 82.7% chance to win and Washington State 17.3%. ESPN’s FPI is further out, at 91.6% for Boise State and 8.3% for Washington State. Our method does not use the moneyline. It stakes the spread.

How Washington State by 1.9 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts only games against FBS teams, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are played at neutral sites and are left out.

Washington State is 4-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 4.0 points a game. Boise State is 5-4 on the road against FBS teams, with an average margin of +0.1. Half the difference is 1.9 points to Washington State.

The samples are 7 games for Washington State and 9 for Boise State. Both clear the 4-game minimum the rule sets. Against a spread of 14.5, a number of Washington State by 1.9 is a gap of 16.4 points.

Moneyline implies Boise State 82.7 percent, Washington State 17.3 percentChance to win the game, as pricedBoise State 82.7%Washington State 17.3%From DraftKings's moneylines, Boise State -625 and Washington State +455, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Washington State at home, Boise State on the road

Two of Washington State’s seven home games in the sample are from 2026, and Washington State lost both: 34-24 to Arizona on 26 September and 26-6 to Fresno State on 3 October. Its 48-7 home win over Duquesne on 19 September came against a team outside the FBS, so the method leaves it out.

Boise State’s road games against FBS teams this season are a 34-27 loss at Oregon on 5 September, a 32-7 win at Western Michigan on 26 September and a 38-31 win at Fresno State on 10 October. In 2025 it went 3-3 on the road.

The halves the method leaves out point the other way. Washington State went 1-5 on the road in 2025 and is 0-3 on the road this season. Boise State went 6-1 at home in 2025 and is 3-0 at home this season. None of those games describes this one: Washington State is at home and Boise State is the visitor.

This season so far

Washington State is 1-6, 0-3 in the Pac-12, and has lost four straight. Against FBS teams it is 0-6 with an average margin of -15.0. It has scored 20.1 points a game and allowed 27.1. The six FBS losses: 24-10 at Washington, 34-7 at Kansas State, 34-24 to Arizona, 26-6 to Fresno State, 17-16 at Utah State and 48-30 at Oregon State on 17 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Washington State and Boise State2026: point margin in every game so farWashington State1-6, -7.0 a game-14-27+41-10-20-1-18Boise State5-1, +12.7 a game-7+18+14+25+19+7Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

Boise State is 5-1, 2-0 in the Pac-12, and has won five straight. Against FBS teams it is 4-1 with an average margin of +12.4. It has scored 35.0 a game and allowed 22.3. Its one loss was 34-27 at Oregon. It has also beaten Memphis 38-20 and Utah State 37-18 at home.

Records and streaks sit outside our number. On this season alone, the market’s 14.5 looks close to how these teams have played. The case for Washington State rests on the two-season home and road splits, and this season’s form is the strongest argument against it.

Last season and the meetings

Washington State went 7-6 in 2025, 6-6 against FBS teams, with an average margin of +2.3. It beat Utah State 34-21 at a neutral site on 22 December 2025. That was a bowl game, so the method leaves it out.

Boise State went 9-5 in 2025, 8-5 against FBS teams, at +5.8 a game. It lost 38-10 to Washington at a neutral site on 13 December 2025. That game is outside the method for the same reason.

2025 point margin in every game, Washington State and Boise State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedWashington State7-6, +2.3 a game+3+23-49-35+17-3-2+21-3+25-4+24+13Boise State9-5, +5.8 a game-27+37+12+33-21+16+25+21-23-10+28+1+17-28Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026.

The two teams have not met in 2025 or 2026, so no meeting is inside our number.

Pick: Washington State +14.5

Washington State +14.5 at -115 at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. It opened at +14. The gap is 16.4 points against a 3-point threshold.

The bet rests on 7 home games for Washington State and 9 road games for Boise State. Washington State’s half is the weaker one. It holds two home losses from this season, and the rest of the sample comes from 2025.

What kills the bet

The line. Washington State stays a bet at +1.1 or better, where the gap is 3 points. Anything shorter than that is a pass. Boise State would be the bet only if it were getting 4.9 points or more.

The risk is the gap between the two seasons. Washington State is 0-6 against FBS teams this year at -15.0 a game, and Boise State is 4-1 at +12.4. Our number puts more weight on two seasons of venue splits than on seven weeks of this season.

Nothing here states who is available. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 53.5, up from 50.5 at the open. The over is -108 and the under -112.

Game totals for Washington State and Boise State against 53.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 53.510203040506070809053.5Washington State5 of 18 over 53.5Boise State10 of 18 over 53.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Washington State’s games went over in 5 of 18 and Boise State’s in 10 of 18. This season Washington State’s FBS games produced 34, 41, 58, 32, 33 and 78 points. Boise State’s produced 61, 58, 39, 55 and 69.

No bet on the total. The method stakes the spread, and these counts are a record, not a number. The 5-of-18 and 10-of-18 counts point in opposite directions, so they do not add up to a lean.

Boise State at Washington State, Saturday 24 October, 6:00 PM ET, Martin Stadium, Pullman. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 AP Poll, Week 8. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.