Iowa State at BYU Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number has BYU by 8.6. No line yet: BYU is a bet at -5.5 or shorter, Iowa State at +12 or more.

No spread had been posted as of 28 September. Our number makes No. 10 BYU an 8.6-point favourite, and a side is a bet when the spread sits at least 3 points from it. So the call is a price on each side, with a pass between.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together.

BYU is 6-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 17.17 points a game across 6 games. Iowa State is 3-3 on the road against FBS teams, and its average margin across those 6 games is exactly 0.0. The difference is 17.17 points. Half of it, rounded, is 8.6.

Both samples are 6 games, which clears our 4-game minimum.

BYU at home

BYU has not lost at home to an FBS team in the span we measure. It beat Stanford 27-3, West Virginia 38-24, Utah 24-21, TCU 44-13 and UCF 41-21 in 2025, and Arizona 28-17 on 12 September.

Five of the six were decided by 11 points or more. The exception was the 3-point win over Utah on 18 October 2025.

Iowa State on the road

Iowa State’s six FBS road games split evenly. It won 24-16 at Arkansas State, 20-17 at TCU and 20-13 at Oklahoma State in 2025. It lost 38-30 at Cincinnati and 24-17 at Colorado in 2025, and 16-13 at Iowa on 12 September.

Every one of the six was decided by 8 points or fewer. That is a team that stays close away from home, and the method reads it that way: a zero average.

2026 so far

BYU is 3-0, 2-0 against FBS teams and 1-0 in the Big 12. It beat Utah Tech 63-7 and Arizona 28-17 at home, and won 41-23 at Colorado State. Against FBS teams it has scored 34.5 a game and allowed 20.0.

Iowa State is 2-2 and 1-2 against FBS teams. It beat Southeast Missouri State 38-10 and Bowling Green 55-7 at home, lost 16-13 at Iowa and lost 31-17 at home to Utah on 26 September. Against FBS teams it has scored 28.3 and allowed 18.0. It is 0-1 in the Big 12.

Last season and the meeting

BYU went 12-2 in 2025 with an average margin of +12.3. It lost 34-7 to Texas Tech at a neutral site on 6 December, and won its bowl 25-21 over Georgia Tech on 27 December. Iowa State went 8-4 at +7.2.

They met on 25 October 2025, and BYU won 41-27 at Iowa State. It was a road game for BYU, so it is in neither sample.

ESPN’s FPI makes BYU an 84.6% favourite, the same side as our number.

Pick: BYU -5.5 or shorter, Iowa State +12 or more

The threshold is 3 points. Our number is BYU by 8.6.

• BYU is a bet at -5.5, or any shorter number. At -5.5 the gap is 3.1.
• Iowa State is a bet at +12 or more. At +12 the gap is 3.4.
• BYU -6 through -11.5 is a pass. At -6 the gap is 2.6, and at -11.5 it is 2.9.

The samples are 6 and 6, 12 games in all. That clears the minimum, and it is thin.

What changes it

The posted line, re-read the week of the game.

The two samples pull against each other. BYU wins at home by 17.17 a game, and all six of Iowa State’s road games were decided by 8 points or fewer. A spread of 12 or more asks BYU to win by more than Iowa State has lost by in any FBS road game across 2025 and 2026, and that is where we would take Iowa State.

Availability is not stated on this page. Check the injury report before you bet.

Iowa State at BYU, Friday 9 October, 10:15 PM ET, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. No line had been posted as of 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.