NFL Predictions 
MLB Predictions 
NBA Predictions 
NHL Predictions 
Soccer Predictions 
Our number has Arkansas State by 2.9. At +6.5, take Kennesaw State.
Arkansas State is a 6.5-point favourite at DraftKings, up from 5.5 at the open. Our number is Arkansas State by 2.9. The gap is 3.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. That is a bet, and a narrow one.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Arkansas State is 2-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 1.4 points a game across 5 games. Kennesaw State is 4-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 7.2 a game across 8 games. The difference is 5.8 points in Arkansas State’s favour. Half of it is 2.9.
Five and eight games are small samples. All five Arkansas State home games come from 2025, because its only home game this season was a 52-7 win over West Georgia, a team outside the FBS.
Kennesaw State on the road
Kennesaw State’s road average hides two different teams. It lost 56-9 at Indiana in 2025 and 42-9 at Tennessee on 19 September. Across all eight road games it is 58 points down, and those two account for 80 points on their own.
The other six were closer: 10-9 at Wake Forest and 35-26 at Jacksonville State were losses, and it won 45-26 at Florida International, 24-21 at New Mexico State, 48-42 at Liberty and 19-15 at Jacksonville State. Those six average a Kennesaw State win by 3.7.
Arkansas State’s home games were close too. It beat Texas State 31-30 and Georgia Southern 34-24, and lost 24-16 to Iowa State, 27-21 to Southern Miss and 34-30 to Louisiana. The spread asks for a win by 7 or more, and Arkansas State did that once in the five.
2026 so far
Neither team has beaten an FBS opponent this season. Kennesaw State is 1-2: a 47-0 win over West Georgia, then a 31-17 home loss to Georgia State and the loss at Tennessee. Against FBS teams it has scored 13.0 a game and allowed 36.5.
Arkansas State is also 1-2. It lost 42-24 at Memphis and 31-7 at TCU, with the West Georgia win between them. Against FBS teams it has scored 15.5 a game and allowed 36.5. This is not a conference game: Kennesaw State plays in Conference USA, Arkansas State in the Sun Belt.
Last season
Kennesaw State went 10-4 in 2025 and won by 1.2 points a game. It was 6-0 at home and 4-3 on the road, and ended with a 41-6 loss to Western Michigan on 19 December at a neutral site.
Arkansas State went 7-6, 3-3 at home and 3-3 on the road, and lost by 2.2 a game. It ended with a 34-28 win over Missouri State on 18 December. The two teams met on 20 September 2025 at Kennesaw State, and Kennesaw State won 28-21. One game, on the other ground, proves little.
The price
Arkansas State opened at -5.5 and is -6.5 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Arkansas State. Arkansas State -6.5 is priced at -108 and Kennesaw State +6.5 at -112.
The moneyline has Arkansas State at -238 and Kennesaw State at +195, from -185 and +154 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Arkansas State to win 67.5% of the time. ESPN’s FPI is lower on Arkansas State, at 59%.
All three measures have Arkansas State as the likelier winner. The question is the margin, and ours is 3.6 points short of the market’s.
Pick: Kennesaw State +6.5
Kennesaw State +6.5 at -112. The gap is 3.6 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 5 and 8. The edge is thin, and the extra juice at -112 makes it thinner. The method still calls it a bet.
What changes it
Any move back toward the open. At +6 the gap is 3.1 and the bet stands. At +5.5, the opening number, it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 53.5 and is 52.5 now, over -112 and under -108.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Kennesaw State’s games went over 52.5 in 6 of 15, and Arkansas State’s in 7 of 14. This season Kennesaw State’s three games produced 47, 48 and 51 points. Arkansas State’s produced 66, 59 and 38.
Pass on the total at 52.5. Kennesaw State leans under, Arkansas State splits evenly, and neither is enough.
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State, Saturday 26 September, 7:00 PM ET, Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
