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Liberty Flames

College Football3 predictions

Liberty football beat the number just three times in 2025, and only two FBS programs did worse against it. The Flames were favored nine times and covered twice.

Three covers

Liberty went 4-8 straight up and 3-9 against the spread. Two FBS teams had a lower cover rate, and four shared Liberty’s: Massachusetts, Northern Illinois, Sam Houston and UTEP. The covers were 19-8 at UTEP, 59-30 over Delaware at -3.5, and a 21-7 loss at Old Dominion as 14.5-point underdogs.

The Flames 2025 regular season, game by game2025-08-30 v Maine Black Bears 28-72025-09-06 at Jacksonville State Gamecocks 24-342025-09-13 at Bowling Green Falcons 13-232025-09-20 v James Madison Dukes 13-312025-09-27 at Old Dominion Monarchs 7-212025-10-08 at UTEP Miners 19-82025-10-14 v New Mexico State Aggies 30-272025-11-01 v Delaware Blue Hens 59-302025-11-08 v Missouri State Bears 17-212025-11-15 at Florida International Panthers 27-342025-11-22 at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 28-342025-11-29 v Kennesaw State Owls 42-48Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
4-8 in 12 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The favorite’s price

Nine times favored, four wins. Losses came at Jacksonville State at -6.5 and Bowling Green at -6.5 in September, then 21-17 to Missouri State at -7.5, 34-27 at Florida International and 34-28 at Louisiana Tech. One unit on the Flames in each favored game lost 3.37; five FBS programs lost more as favorites.

The Flames at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (6)won 3 (50.0%)covered 1 of 6 (16.7%)Away (6)won 1 (16.7%)covered 2 of 6 (33.3%)Favorite (9)won 4 (44.4%)covered 2 of 9 (22.2%)Underdog (3)won 0 (0.0%)covered 1 of 3 (33.3%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The moneyline

Every game had a price, and backing Liberty in all 12 lost 6.37 units. September did most of the damage: 0-4, four units gone. The year closed with three losses by seven points or fewer, the last 48-42 to Kennesaw State at +120.

One unit on the Flames to win, every game0-6-4-2-6.37 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 12 priced 2025 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Six overs and six unders: the total gave nothing either way.

Questions and answers

How bad was Liberty against the spread in 2025?

3-9, third from the bottom of FBS, level with four others.

Did laying points with Liberty work in 2025?

No: nine times favored, four wins, two covers, 3.37 units lost on the moneyline.

What happened to Liberty in September 2025?

Four losses in four, and four moneyline units lost.

Past games

  1. Bearkats at Liberty · 8 OctNo bet
  2. Liberty at Hens · 2 OctOur number has Delaware winning by 5.1.
  3. Liberty at Coastal · 24 SepOur number has Liberty by 1.2.

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