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Marshall vs Old Dominion Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Oct 2026

Our number has Old Dominion by 10. At +3, take Old Dominion.

Marshall at Old Dominion kicks off Saturday 31 October at 1:00 PM ET at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk. It is a Sun Belt East game. Marshall is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings. Our prediction is Old Dominion by 10.0, so the gap is 13.0 points against a 3-point threshold.

The prices

DraftKings has Marshall -3 at -105 and Old Dominion +3 at -115, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Old Dominion opened at +2.5.

Old Dominion opened +2.5 and is +3 nowOld Dominion's line, from the open to nowpickopen +2.5now +3Negative numbers mean Old Dominion is giving points. The line has moved 0.5 points toward Marshall.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

The moneyline is Marshall -142 and Old Dominion +120. Every book builds in a margin, the extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100% when read as chances. With the margin removed, the market gives Marshall a 56.3% chance to win and Old Dominion 43.7%.

ESPN’s FPI has it the other way, with Old Dominion at 53.3%. Neither figure is our number. The moneyline is context, and the method stakes the spread.

How Old Dominion by 10.0 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It uses games against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are at neutral sites and are left out.

Old Dominion is 5-3 at home against FBS teams over that span and wins by 8.8 points a game. Marshall is 3-6 on the road against FBS teams and loses by 11.2 a game. Half the difference between +8.8 and -11.2 is 10.0.

Moneyline implies Marshall 56.3 percent, Old Dominion 43.7 percentChance to win the game, as pricedMarshall 56.3%Old Dominion 43.7%From DraftKings's moneylines, Marshall -142 and Old Dominion +120, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

The sample is 8 games for Old Dominion and 9 for Marshall. The rule needs at least 4 in each, and both clear it. A side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart. Here they are 13.0 apart.

This season, outside the number

Full-season records and margins are not in our number. Only the two splits are, and this season’s form argues for Marshall.

Old Dominion is 2-6, 1-4 in the conference and 1-6 against FBS teams. It scores 15.5 points a game, allows 26.8, and has a margin of -15.9 against FBS teams. In its last four games it scored 10, 10, 15 and 0 points. The last of those was a 26-0 loss at Louisiana Tech on 24 October.

Marshall is 4-3, 1-2 in the conference and 3-3 against FBS teams, with a margin of -10.7 against them. It beat South Alabama 20-13 at home on Tuesday 20 October. On 2026 alone, Marshall has the better margin against FBS teams: -10.7 against Old Dominion’s -15.9. That comparison is the case for the favorite, and our method does not use it.

2026 point margin in every game, Old Dominion and Marshall2026: point margin in every game so farOld Dominion2-6, -11.2 a game+21-23-3-26-32+7-8-26Marshall4-3, -9.0 a game-45+2+6+1-28-6+7Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

Old Dominion at home, Marshall on the road

Old Dominion has played three home games against FBS teams this season and lost all three: 20-17 to East Carolina, 46-20 to James Madison and 23-15 to Georgia Southern. All three are part of the 5-3. That means the five wins came in 2025, when Old Dominion went 6-0 at home. This is the weak point in our number. The home half mostly describes last season’s team.

Marshall’s road games against FBS teams this season were a 45-0 loss at Penn State, a 30-24 win at Missouri State and a 45-17 loss at James Madison. The other six road games in the sample come from 2025, when Marshall went 2-4 on the road.

The method leaves out the other two halves. Old Dominion went 3-3 on the road in 2025. This season away from home it won 10-3 at App State and lost at Virginia Tech, Georgia State and Louisiana Tech. Marshall is 3-1 at home this season and went 3-3 at home in 2025.

The season around it

Old Dominion went 10-3 in 2025 and 9-3 against FBS teams. It scored 32.0 points a game, allowed 18.5 and had a margin of +13.5. It beat South Florida 24-10 in a bowl game on 17 December 2025. That game was at a neutral site, so the method leaves it out. Marshall went 5-7 in 2025, 4-7 against FBS teams, with a margin of +0.5 a game.

2025 point margin in every game, Old Dominion and Marshall2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedOld Dominion10-3, +13.5 a game-13+48+19+14+40-24-36+3+25+33+35+17+14Marshall5-7, +0.5 a game-38-1+31+14-3+24+3-17-12+12-2-5Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026.

The two teams met once in that span. Marshall won 48-24 at home on 11 October 2025. Because it was a Marshall home game, it falls in neither half of our number. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 9.

Pick: Old Dominion +3

The bet is Old Dominion +3 at -115 at DraftKings, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. The line opened at +2.5. The gap is 13.0 points against a 3-point threshold.

The pick rests on 8 home games for Old Dominion and 9 road games for Marshall. The strongest evidence against it is Old Dominion’s 1-6 record against FBS teams this season.

What kills the bet

The first risk is the line. Old Dominion stays a bet at any line from +3 through Old Dominion -7. Beyond -7 the call becomes a pass. For Marshall to be the bet, it would need to be +13 or longer.

The second risk is the sample. Our number gives eight home games across two seasons more weight than this season’s -15.9 margin against FBS teams. If 2026 is the real Old Dominion, the method is wrong here.

The ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026 at 00:39 UTC, lists no injuries for either team. That does not mean everyone plays. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 44.5, down from 46.5 at the open. The over is -115 and the under is -105.

Game totals for Old Dominion and Marshall against 44.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 44.510203040506070809010011044.5Old Dominion9 of 19 over 44.5Marshall14 of 17 over 44.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

Against FBS teams in 2025 and 2026, Old Dominion’s games went over 44.5 in 9 of 19 and Marshall’s in 14 of 17. This season Old Dominion’s seven FBS games produced 65, 37, 66, 52, 13, 38 and 26 points. Marshall’s six produced 45, 54, 54, 62, 48 and 33. Last season’s game ended 48-24.

No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread only, and here the two teams’ counts point in opposite directions.

Marshall at Old Dominion, Saturday 31 October, 1:00 PM ET, S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 9, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026, 00:39 UTC.