CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyMEM-20.5U 52.5-1450CLT+20.5O 52.5+850
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Memphis at Charlotte Final Score: Memphis Win 59-8
Final: Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8, Saturday 3 October at Jerry Richardson Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Memphis by 16.7. At +20.5, take Charlotte, narrowly.” Charlotte +20.5 lost: Charlotte lost by 51.
What decided it
Memphis won the first quarter by 14. Memphis turned the ball over 0 times to Charlotte’s 4, and gained 674 yards to 209.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Tigers | 14 | 10 | 21 | 14 | 59 |
| Charlotte 49ers | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is MEM -18.5, with a total of 52.5. Memphis covered as the favourite. The 67 points went over the total.
What comes next
Memphis plays next against the Army Black Knights on Saturday 31 October. Charlotte plays next against the Tulane Green Wave on Friday 30 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Memphis at Charlotte Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Memphis by 16.7. At +20.5, take Charlotte, narrowly.
Memphis opened as a 21.5-point favourite at DraftKings and is 20.5 now. Our number is Memphis by 16.7. The gap is 3.8 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. That clears it by less than a point.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Charlotte is 0-6 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 24.2 points a game across 6 games. Memphis is 5-3 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 9.1 a game across 8 games. The difference is 33.3 points. Half of it, rounded, is 16.7.
Only one of Charlotte’s six home games comes from 2026: a 34-7 loss to Louisiana on 26 September. Two of Memphis’s eight road games are from this season.
Charlotte at home
Charlotte has not beaten an FBS team at home in 2025 or 2026. The six losses were 20-3 to North Carolina, 28-17 to Rice, 49-14 to Temple, 54-20 to North Texas and 28-7 to UTSA in 2025, and the Louisiana game.
Four of those six were losses by 21 or more, which is what a Memphis cover at -20.5 needs. That is the case against this pick, and it is most of the sample. The other two were by 17 and 11.
Memphis on the road
Memphis won 27-21 at UNLV and lost 38-20 at Boise State this season. In 2025 it won 38-16 at Georgia State, 28-7 at Troy, 55-26 at Florida Atlantic and 38-14 at Rice, and lost 31-24 at UAB and 31-27 at East Carolina.
Four of the eight road games were wins by 21 or more. Four were not, including three losses. The method averages the good and the bad, and the average is 9.1.
2026 so far
Charlotte is 0-4 and has lost four in a row. The first was 43-41 to The Citadel, a team outside the FBS. Then came losses of 41-9 at Ole Miss, 26-21 at App State and the Louisiana game. Against FBS teams it has scored 12.3 points a game and allowed 33.7.
Memphis is 3-1 and last played on 19 September, a 45-21 win over UT Martin, a team outside the FBS. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 29.7 a game and allowed 27.7. This is an American Conference game, and neither team has played a conference game yet.
Last season
Charlotte went 1-11 in 2025 and lost by 22.0 a game. It was 0-11 against FBS teams. Memphis went 8-5 and won by 9.3 a game.
Memphis’s 2025 ended with a 31-7 loss to NC State on 19 December, at a neutral site. The two teams did not meet in 2025.
The price
Memphis opened at -21.5 and is -20.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Charlotte. Charlotte +20.5 is priced at -112, Memphis -20.5 at -108.
The moneyline has Memphis at -1450 and Charlotte at +850, from -2800 and +1300 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Memphis to win 89.9% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Memphis at 89.5%.
Pick: Charlotte +20.5
Charlotte +20.5 at -112. The gap is 3.8 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 6 and 8. The edge clears the rule by 0.8 points, and it is priced at -112, the dearer side of the spread.
What changes it
Half a point. At Charlotte +20 the gap is 3.3 and the bet stands. At +19.5 it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 54.5 and is still 54.5, over -105 and under -115, as read at DraftKings.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Memphis’s games went over 54.5 in 8 of 15, and Charlotte’s in 4 of 14. Charlotte’s three FBS games this season produced 50, 47 and 41 points; Memphis’s produced 48, 66 and 58.
Pass on the total at 54.5. The two samples point in different directions.
Memphis at Charlotte, Saturday 3 October, 3:30 PM ET, Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.