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North Texas vs Navy Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our North Texas vs Navy prediction has Navy winning by 1.4. Navy is getting 2.5, so take Navy.

North Texas at Navy kicks off Saturday 24 October at 3:30 PM ET at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, an American Conference game. DraftKings has North Texas -2.5 and Navy +2.5, both at -110. Our line is Navy -1.4, a gap of 3.9 points toward Navy against a 3-point threshold.

The prices and what they say

On the moneyline, DraftKings prices North Texas at -135 and Navy at +114. A book builds in a margin, the extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100% so it profits whichever side wins. With the margin taken out, the market gives North Texas a 55.1% chance to win and Navy 44.9%.

ESPN’s FPI is further toward North Texas, at 66.9% to 33.1%. The moneyline is context only. Our method stakes the spread.

How Navy -1.4 is reached

The method is one sentence. Our home margin is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together, with bowl and playoff games left out as neutral.

Navy is 6-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 7.7 points a game. North Texas is 6-3 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 4.8 a game. Half the difference between those two averages is 1.4 points to Navy.

The rule needs at least 4 games in each sample. Navy has 6 and North Texas has 9, so both clear it. A side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart. Here they are 3.9 apart.

Moneyline implies North Texas 55.1 percent, Navy 44.9 percentChance to win the game, as pricedNorth Texas 55.1%Navy 44.9%From DraftKings's moneylines, North Texas -135 and Navy +114, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-23 03:12 UTC.

Navy at home, North Texas on the road

Navy’s half of the number rests on 6 home games, and only one of them is from this season: 34-26 over Tulsa on 10 October. The other five are last season’s Navy, which went 6-0 at home overall in 2025. That is the thinnest part of the argument. Six games is above our minimum and still a small sample.

North Texas’s half is 9 road games, three of them from 2026. It lost 52-16 at Indiana on 5 September and 49-35 at Texas State on 19 September, then won 45-44 at Tulsa on 1 October. In 2025 it went 5-1 on the road overall.

The method leaves out the other halves. Navy’s road games and North Texas’s home games are not in our number. That matters here, because North Texas is 3-0 at home this season and Navy is 0-4 away.

This season so far

Nothing in this section is in our number. It is the case against the bet, and it is a real one.

Navy is 2-4, 1-3 in conference, and 1-4 against FBS teams. It scores 28.2 points a game and allows 25.8. Against FBS teams alone its margin is -2.6 a game. Its two wins came at home, 42-15 over Towson and 34-26 over Tulsa. Its four losses all came on the road: 38-30 at Florida Atlantic, 24-20 at UAB, 14-9 at Air Force and, most recently, 38-34 at UTSA on 17 October.

North Texas is 4-2, 2-0 in conference, and has won three straight. It scores 42.2 and allows 29.2. Against FBS teams it is 3-2 with a margin of +5.8 a game. The run is 45-44 at Tulsa, 63-14 over Houston Christian, a team outside the FBS, and 50-10 over Charlotte on 10 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Navy and North Texas2026: point margin in every game so farNavy2-4, +2.3 a game+27-8-4-5+8-4North Texas4-2, +13.0 a game-36+38-14+49+1+40Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

On this season alone, North Texas is the better team against FBS opponents. The market agrees with that. Our number trusts two seasons of venue splits over six games of form, and that is the bet.

Last season and the meeting

North Texas went 12-2 in 2025, 11-2 against FBS teams, with a margin of +18.6 a game. It finished with a 49-47 win over San Diego State on 27 December 2025 at a neutral site. Navy went 11-2, 10-2 against FBS teams, at +6.5 a game, and beat Cincinnati 35-13 at a neutral site on 2 January 2026.

2025 point margin in every game, Navy and North Texas2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedNavy11-2, +6.5 a game+45+14+19+8+3+1+10-14-39+3+11+1+22North Texas12-2, +18.6 a game+51+3+49+7+14-27+38+34+14+29+32+27-13+2Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026.

The two teams met once in that span. North Texas won 31-17 on 1 November 2025. That was a North Texas home game, so the method does not use it: our number reads only Navy at home and North Texas away.

Pick: Navy +2.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Navy +2.5 at -110, read at DraftKings via ESPN on 23 October 2026 at 03:12 UTC. The gap is 3.9 points against a 3-point threshold. Navy opened at +1.5 and is +2.5 now.

The bet rests on 15 games, split 6 and 9. Navy’s half carries one game from this season.

Navy opened +1.5 and is +2.5 nowNavy's line, from the open to nowpickopen +1.5now +2.5Negative numbers mean Navy is giving points. The line has moved 1 point toward North Texas.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-23 03:12 UTC.

What kills the bet

The line. Navy stays a bet down to +1.6. At +1.5, where it opened, the gap falls under 3 points and the call is a pass. North Texas would need to be getting 4.4 or more to become the bet.

Nothing on this page states who is available. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 62.5, up from 61.5 at the open. The over is -115 and the under -105.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Navy’s games went over the total in 7 of 17, and North Texas’s in 13 of 18. This season Navy’s five FBS games produced 68, 44, 23, 60 and 72 points. North Texas’s produced 68, 50, 84, 89 and 60.

Game totals for Navy and North Texas against 62.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 62.5203040506070809010062.5Navy7 of 17 over 62.5North Texas13 of 18 over 62.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-23 03:12 UTC.

No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread, and the two counts point in opposite directions. This is a count, not a number we bet.

North Texas at Navy, Saturday 24 October, 3:30 PM ET, Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 23 October 2026, 03:12 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 8. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 23 October 2026, 03:12 UTC.