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Notre Dame vs Navy Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Oct 2026

Our number has Notre Dame by 6.9. At +30.5, take Navy.

No. 5 Notre Dame is a 30.5-point favorite over Navy at DraftKings, up from 28.5 at the open. Our number is Notre Dame by 6.9. The gap is 23.6 points on Navy’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.

Notre Dame at Navy kicks off Saturday 31 October at 12:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. It is a neutral site, and Navy is listed as the home team.

The prices

DraftKings has Notre Dame -30.5 and Navy +30.5, both at -110, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Navy opened at +28.5. The longer number is the market moving away from Navy.

Navy opened +28.5 and is +30.5 nowNavy's line, from the open to nowpickopen +28.5now +30.5Negative numbers mean Navy is giving points. The line has moved 2 points toward Notre Dame.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

The moneyline is Notre Dame -6500 and Navy +2000. A book builds in a margin, an extra amount that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With the margin removed, those prices give Notre Dame 95.4% to win and Navy 4.6%. ESPN’s FPI has Notre Dame at 98.7% and Navy at 1.4%. The method stakes the spread, so these are context only.

How Notre Dame by 6.9 is reached

The method in one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are neutral and left out.

Navy is 6-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 5.1 points a game across 7 games. Notre Dame is 6-2 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 19.0 a game across 8 games. Half the difference is Notre Dame by 6.9.

Moneyline implies Notre Dame 95.4 percent, Navy 4.6 percentChance to win the game, as pricedNotre Dame 95.4%Navy 4.6%From DraftKings's moneylines, Notre Dame -6500 and Navy +2000, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

The rule sets a minimum of 4 games per sample. Navy has 7 and Notre Dame has 8, so both halves clear it. A side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart. These are 23.6 apart.

Navy at home, Notre Dame on the road

Two of Navy’s seven home games in the sample are from this season. It beat Tulsa 34-26 on 10 October and lost 39-49 to North Texas on 24 October. Its 42-15 win over Towson on 5 September is outside the method, because Towson is not an FBS team.

Three of Notre Dame’s eight road games are from this season: 49-10 at Purdue on 26 September, 37-26 at North Carolina on 3 October, and a 24-28 loss at BYU on 17 October. The 41-13 win over Wisconsin on 6 September was at a neutral site, so the method leaves it out. So are Notre Dame’s home games, including 52-0 over Rice and 58-7 over Stanford.

The weak point sits in Navy’s half. It is built from games in Annapolis, and this game is in Foxborough. Most of it is also last season’s Navy.

This season so far

What follows is outside our number. Navy is 2-5, 1-4 in the American Conference and 1-5 against FBS teams. It scores 29.7 points a game and allows 29.1. Against FBS teams its margin is -3.8 a game. Its road losses came at Florida Atlantic (30-38), UAB (20-24), Air Force (9-14) and UTSA (34-38), none by more than 8.

Notre Dame is 6-1, all seven games against FBS teams. It scores 41.1 and allows 13.4, a margin of +27.7. Its last game was the 24-28 loss at BYU on 17 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Navy and Notre Dame2026: point margin in every game so farNavy2-5, +0.6 a game+27-8-4-5+8-4-10Notre Dame6-1, +27.7 a game+28+52+17+39+11+51-4Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

On this season alone, Notre Dame’s margin of +27.7 is close to the 30.5 spread. This season’s form agrees with the market. The case for Navy rests on the two-season sample of where each team has played.

Last season and the meeting

Navy went 11-2 in 2025, 6-0 at home and 3-2 on the road, with an average margin of +6.5. It beat Cincinnati 35-13 at a neutral site on 2 January 2026. Notre Dame went 10-2, 6-1 at home and 4-1 on the road, at +24.4 a game, with no postseason game.

2025 point margin in every game, Navy and Notre Dame2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedNavy11-2, +6.5 a game+45+14+19+8+3+1+10-14-39+3+11+1+22Notre Dame10-2, +24.4 a game-3-1+26+43+21+29+10+15+39+22+63+29Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026.

The teams met once in the span. Notre Dame won 49-10 on 8 November 2025 at Notre Dame. That was a Notre Dame home game, so the method does not use it.

Pick: Navy +30.5

Navy +30.5 at -110 at DraftKings, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. The gap is 23.6 points against a 3-point threshold. Navy opened at +28.5.

The base is 7 games for Navy at home and 8 for Notre Dame on the road. Notre Dame’s half carries three games from this season. Navy’s half carries two.

What kills the bet

The line. Navy stays a bet down to +9.9. Notre Dame would need to be -3.9 or shorter to be the bet. Neither is close to the current number.

The risk is this season. Navy is 1-5 against FBS teams and lost by 10 at home to North Texas a week ago. Notre Dame’s 2026 margin of +27.7 says the spread is about right. Our number trusts two seasons of venue results over seven games of current form, and Navy’s half was earned at home, which this game is not.

ESPN’s game page listed no injuries for either team when read on 30 October 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 56.5, up from 53.5 at the open. The over is -112 and the under -108.

Game totals for Navy and Notre Dame against 56.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 56.5203040506070809056.5Navy11 of 18 over 56.5Notre Dame10 of 19 over 56.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Navy’s games went over in 11 of 18 and Notre Dame’s in 10 of 19. This season Navy’s six FBS games produced 68, 44, 23, 60, 72 and 88 points. Notre Dame’s seven produced 54, 52, 37, 59, 63, 65 and 52. Last season’s meeting produced 59.

No bet on the total. The method stakes the spread only, and these counts are a description, not a number. The spread is the one bet: Navy +30.5.

Notre Dame at Navy, Saturday 31 October, 12:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (neutral site). Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 9. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026, 00:39 UTC.