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College Football · Saturday 3 October

Ohio State at Iowa Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Sep 2026
College FootballSat 3 Oct
Ohio State Buckeyes
at
Iowa Hawkeyes
SpreadTotalMoneyBUC-14.5U 45.5-625HAW+14.5O 45.5+455

Our number has Ohio State by 1.9. At +13.5, take Iowa.

No. 5 Ohio State is a 13.5-point favourite at No. 14 Iowa at DraftKings. Our number has Ohio State winning by 1.9. The gap is 11.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

Iowa is 6-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 14.8 points a game across 8 games. Ohio State is 5-1 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 18.5 a game across 6 games. The difference is 3.7 points in Ohio State’s favour. Half of it is 1.9.

Both samples clear our 4-game minimum. Neither is large.

Iowa at home

The spread asks whether Ohio State wins by 14 or more. In 8 home games against FBS teams, Iowa has not lost by more than 5.

The two losses were 20-15 to Indiana and 18-16 to Oregon, both in 2025. The six wins run from 16-13 over Iowa State on 12 September to 47-7 over Massachusetts and 40-0 over Northern Illinois. In between: 25-24 over Penn State, 41-3 over Minnesota and 20-17 over Michigan State.

Ohio State on the road

Ohio State’s road record against FBS teams is the other side, and it is strong. It won 5 of 6, every win by 18 or more: 24-6 at Washington, 34-16 at Illinois, 34-0 at Wisconsin, 34-10 at Purdue and 27-9 at Michigan.

The one loss was 24-23 at Texas on 12 September. The method averages both teams’ figures, and the two averages sit 3.7 points apart.

2026 so far

Ohio State is 3-1 and 1-0 in the Big Ten. It beat Ball State 56-3, lost 24-23 at Texas, beat Kent State 59-3, then beat Illinois 42-19 last Saturday. It has scored 45.0 a game and allowed 12.2.

2026 point margin in every game, Iowa and Ohio State2026: point margin in every game so farIowa4-0, +24.8 a game+40Northern Illinois+3Iowa State+55Northern Iowa+1MichiganOhio State3-1, +32.8 a game+53Ball State-1Texas+56Kent State+23IllinoisColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Iowa is 4-0 and 1-0 in the Big Ten. It beat Northern Illinois 40-0 and Iowa State 16-13, beat Northern Iowa 55-0, a team outside the FBS, and won 20-19 at Michigan on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 25.3 a game and allowed 10.7.

Last season

Ohio State went 12-2 in 2025 and won by 24.1 a game, 7-0 at home and 5-0 on the road. Its season ended with a 24-14 loss to Miami on 31 December, at a neutral site. Iowa went 9-4, won by 13.2 a game, and beat Vanderbilt 34-27 on the same day.

2025 point margin in every game, Iowa and Ohio State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedIowa9-4, +13.2 a game+27-3+40+10-5+37+1+38-2-5+3+24+7Ohio State12-2, +24.1 a game+7+70+28+18+39+18+34+24+24+38+33+18-3-10Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026.

The two teams did not meet in 2025.

The price

Iowa opened at +14 and is +13.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Iowa +13.5 is priced at -108, Ohio State -13.5 at -112.

Iowa opened +14 and is +13.5 nowIowa's line, from the open to nowpickopen +14now +13.5Negative numbers mean Iowa is giving points. The line has moved 0.5 points toward Iowa.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The moneyline has Ohio State at -575 and Iowa at +425, from -700 and +500 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Ohio State to win 81.7% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Ohio State at 82.9%.

Moneyline implies Ohio State 81.7 percent, Iowa 18.3 percentChance to win the game, as pricedOhio State 81.7%Iowa 18.3%From DraftKings's moneylines, Ohio State -575 and Iowa +425, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Ohio State is the likelier winner by every measure here, ours included. The disagreement is 11.6 points of margin.

Pick: Iowa +13.5

Iowa +13.5 at -108. The gap is 11.6 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 14 games, split 8 and 6. Iowa’s side of it contains no home loss by more than 5 points.

What changes it

The bet stands down to Iowa +5, where the gap is 3.1. At +4.5 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass. That is 8.5 points of line movement away.

Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total opened at 44.5 and is 45.5 now, with both sides at -110.

Game totals for Iowa and Ohio State against 45.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 45.520304050607045.5Iowa6 of 15 over 45.5Ohio State9 of 17 over 45.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Ohio State’s games went over 45.5 in 9 of 17, and Iowa’s in 6 of 15. Iowa’s three FBS games this season produced 40, 29 and 39 points; Ohio State’s four produced 59, 47, 62 and 61.

Pass on the total at 45.5. The two samples point in opposite directions.

Schedules and results for both teams: Ohio State Buckeyes and Iowa Hawkeyes. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.

Ohio State at Iowa, Saturday 3 October, 3:30 PM ET, Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.