Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
College Football · Tuesday 6 October

Southern Miss at Troy Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 6 Oct 2026

Take Southern Miss +10.5. Our number has Troy by 2.4.

Troy opened as an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings and is 10.5 now. Our number is Troy by 2.4. The gap is 8.1 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

This page went up on 28 September with no line posted and no single side. It said Southern Miss was a bet at +5.5 or better. At +10.5 it is, so the call is now Southern Miss.

How the number is built

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

Troy is 4-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, and its average margin across those 6 games is 0.0. Southern Miss is 3-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 4.9 a game across 7 games. The difference is 4.9 points in Troy’s favor. Half of it, from the unrounded averages, is 2.43, which rounds to 2.4.

Six and seven games is a thin base. Three of the 13 come from 2026.

Southern Miss on the road

Southern Miss went 3-2 on the road against FBS teams in 2025. It won 38-35 at Georgia Southern, 22-10 at Louisiana and 27-21 at Arkansas State, and lost 30-20 at Louisiana Tech and 42-35 at South Alabama. Those five average +0.8.

This season it lost 43-8 at Auburn on 12 September and 24-21 at Tulane on 26 September. The Auburn game is the largest margin in either sample. It is also the only one of the seven road games that Southern Miss lost by more than 10.5.

Troy at home

Troy’s home games against FBS teams in 2025 went 4-2. It beat South Alabama 31-24, Louisiana 35-23 and Georgia State 31-19, and lost 28-7 to Memphis and 23-10 to Arkansas State. Those two losses cost it 34 points.

This season it beat Sam Houston 24-21 on 5 September, its only home game against an FBS team so far. Troy won by 11 or more, enough to cover 10.5, in 2 of its 6 home games: Louisiana and Georgia State, both by 12.

2026 so far

Southern Miss is 1-3 and 0-3 against FBS teams. Against those three it has scored 16.3 points a game and allowed 38.3, a margin of -22.0. Its win, 49-3 over Alcorn State, came against a team outside the FBS, and the method does not count it. The home loss was 48-20 to UConn.

2026 point margin in every game, Troy and Southern Miss2026: point margin in every game so farTroy2-2, -0.2 a game+3Sam Houston+17Alabama State-10Missouri-11Utah StateSouthern Miss1-3, -5.0 a game+46Alcorn State-35Auburn-28UConn-3TulaneColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 6 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Troy is 2-2 and 1-2 against FBS teams, scoring 17.0 and allowing 23.0. It has lost two in a row, 27-17 at Missouri and 21-10 at Utah State. Its 34-17 win over Alabama State is outside the FBS and outside the sample.

The 2026 FBS margins are -6.0 for Troy and -22.0 for Southern Miss, 16.0 points apart. Our number gives 2025 its full weight. Neither team has played a Sun Belt game yet, and this one is.

Last season

Troy went 8-6 in 2025 with an average margin of -0.4. Its season ended with a 17-13 loss to Jacksonville State on 16 December, at a neutral site.

2025 point margin in every game, Troy and Southern Miss2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedTroy8-6, -0.4 a game+18-11-21+4+7+7+23+12-13-33+12+10-17-4Southern Miss7-6, +1.4 a game-17+18+16-10+17+3+12+28+6-27-7-10-11Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 6 October 2026.

Southern Miss went 7-6 at +1.4 a game, and lost its bowl 27-16 to Western Kentucky on 23 December. The teams met once in that span: Troy won 28-18 at Southern Miss on 29 November 2025.

The price

Troy opened at -8.5 and is -10.5 now, read 6 October 2026 at 08:17 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2-point move toward Troy. Southern Miss +10.5 is priced at -112 and Troy -10.5 at -108.

Troy opened -8.5 and is -10.5 nowTroy's line, from the open to nowpickopen -8.5now -10.5Negative numbers mean Troy is giving points. The line has moved 2 points toward Troy.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-06 08:17 UTC.

The moneyline has Troy at -410 and Southern Miss at +320, from -340 and +270 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Troy to win 77.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Troy at 67.7%.

Moneyline implies Southern Miss 22.8 percent, Troy 77.2 percentChance to win the game, as pricedSouthern Miss 22.8%Troy 77.2%From DraftKings's moneylines, Southern Miss +320 and Troy -410, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-06 08:17 UTC.

Every measure makes Troy the likelier winner. The disagreement is over margin. The market says about 10 points, and our number says 2.4.

Pick: Southern Miss +10.5

Southern Miss +10.5 at -112. The gap is 8.1 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 13 games, split 6 and 7. At the open, Southern Miss +8.5, the gap was 6.1, so this was a bet then too. The move toward Troy made it a bigger one.

The case against it is this season. Southern Miss has lost its three FBS games by an average of 22.0, and the method weighs those three no more than any of the other ten.

What changes it

A move back toward Troy’s number. At Southern Miss +5.5 the gap is 3.1, and the bet stands. At +5 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass.

Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total opened at 48.5 and is 50.5 now, a 2-point rise. The over and the under are both -110.

Game totals for Troy and Southern Miss against 50.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 50.53040506070809050.5Troy4 of 16 over 50.5Southern Miss9 of 15 over 50.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 6 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-06 08:17 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Troy’s games went over 50.5 in 4 of 16, and Southern Miss’s in 9 of 15. This season Troy’s four games produced 45, 51, 44 and 31 points, one over. Southern Miss’s produced 52, 51, 68 and 45.

Pass on the total at 50.5. Troy’s games say under and Southern Miss’s say over.

Southern Miss at Troy, Tuesday 6 October, 8:00 PM ET, Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 08:17 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.