CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyUSM-3.5U 55.5-175ULM+3.5O 55.5+145
CFB · Saturday 31 October
Southern Miss vs UL Monroe Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has Southern Miss by 4.9. The line is 3.5, a 1.4-point gap, under the 3 we need: no bet.
Southern Miss is a 3.5-point favorite at UL Monroe at DraftKings. Our number is UL Monroe +4.9. That puts us 1.4 points on Southern Miss’s side of the market. The threshold for a bet is 3 points, so the price is close enough to right and we pass.
The prices
DraftKings has Southern Miss -3.5 at -108 and UL Monroe +3.5 at -112, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC via ESPN. UL Monroe opened at +3. The moneyline is Southern Miss -175 and UL Monroe +145.
A book builds in a margin, an extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With it removed, the moneyline gives Southern Miss a 60.9% chance to win and UL Monroe 39.1%. ESPN’s FPI is firmer on the visitor: Southern Miss 77%, UL Monroe 23.1%.
How 4.9 is reached
The method takes UL Monroe’s average margin at home and Southern Miss’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, across 2025 and 2026. Our home margin is half the difference between the two. Bowl and playoff games are played at neutral sites and are left out.
UL Monroe is 1-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 16.7 points a game. Southern Miss is 3-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 6.9 a game. Half the difference gives UL Monroe a home margin of -4.9, which reads as UL Monroe +4.9 on the spread.
The rule: a side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart, and no bet when either sample has fewer than 4 games. The samples are 6 games for UL Monroe and 8 for Southern Miss, so both clear the minimum. The gap does not.
UL Monroe at home, Southern Miss on the road
UL Monroe’s home half is weak, and this season made it weaker. Its two home games against FBS teams in 2026 were a 45-17 loss to Florida Atlantic on 26 September and a 24-0 loss to Louisiana Tech on 17 October. The rest of the six are from 2025, when UL Monroe went 2-3 at home overall.
Southern Miss’s road half carries last season’s team. It went 3-2 on the road in 2025. In 2026 it has lost all three of its road games against FBS teams: 43-8 at Auburn, 24-21 at Tulane and 55-34 at Troy on Tuesday 6 October.
The halves the method leaves out are Southern Miss at home and UL Monroe on the road. UL Monroe’s one win this season came on the road, 21-14 at Troy on 24 October. That result sits outside our number.
This season so far
Neither team has the record to make this a mismatch. UL Monroe is 1-6, 1-2 in the Sun Belt and 0-3 at home. It has scored 20.1 points a game and allowed 37.3, a margin of -17.1, and -19.5 against FBS teams alone. Its loss to SE Louisiana, 38-35 at home on 19 September, came against a team outside the FBS.
Southern Miss is 2-5, also 1-2 in the conference. It scores 25.7 a game and allows 32.4, a margin of -6.7. Against FBS teams the margin drops to -15.5, because its 49-3 win over Alcorn State on 5 September is not in that figure. Its last game was a 35-31 home win over Louisiana on 24 October.
Both teams are 1-5 against FBS opponents in 2026. These records sit outside the method, which uses only the venue splits.
Last season and the meeting
Southern Miss went 7-6 in 2025 with an average margin of +1.4, and lost its bowl game 27-16 to Western Kentucky on 23 December 2025 at a neutral site. UL Monroe went 3-9 at -15.3 a game, and 1-6 on the road.
The teams met once in the span. Southern Miss won 49-21 on 25 October 2025, at Southern Miss. That was a Southern Miss home game, so the method does not use it.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the spread. Our number is UL Monroe +4.9, the line is Southern Miss -3.5, and the 1.4-point gap is under the 3-point threshold.
Prices: Southern Miss -3.5 at -108 and UL Monroe +3.5 at -112, DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. UL Monroe opened at +3.
What kills the bet
The line is what would turn this into a bet. Southern Miss becomes the bet at -1.9 or better. UL Monroe becomes the bet at +7.9 or better. Between those two numbers, we pass.
The risk to our own number is the age of its samples. Southern Miss’s road half leans on a 2025 team that went 3-2 away from home; the 2026 team is 0-3 on the road against FBS sides. The ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026 at 00:39 UTC, gave no injury list for this game. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The total is 55.5, up from 52.5 at the open, with the over and the under both at -110.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, UL Monroe’s games went over 55.5 in 7 of 17 and Southern Miss’s in 8 of 18. This season UL Monroe’s six FBS games produced 75, 46, 62, 87, 24 and 35 points. Southern Miss’s produced 51, 68, 45, 89, 36 and 66.
No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread, and this is a count of past games: both teams sit under the line in more games than over, but that is not a measured edge.
Southern Miss at UL Monroe, Saturday 31 October, 3:30 PM ET, Malone Stadium, Monroe. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 9. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026, 00:39 UTC.