Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
College Football · Saturday 3 October

Stanford at Wake Forest Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Sep 2026

Our number has Wake Forest by 13.9. The line is 12.5. No bet.

Wake Forest is a 12.5-point favourite over Stanford at DraftKings, where it opened. Our number has Wake Forest winning by 13.9. The gap is 1.4 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

Wake Forest is 5-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 6.8 points a game across 8 games. Stanford is 0-7 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 21.0 a game across 7 games. The difference is 27.8 points. Half of it is 13.9.

The market and the method land 1.4 points apart. On this game there is nothing to bet.

Stanford on the road

Stanford has lost all 7 of its road games against FBS teams in the span. Five were by 24 or more: 27-3 at BYU, 48-20 at Virginia, 34-10 at SMU and 42-7 at Miami in 2025, then 35-7 at Duke on 19 September.

The two close ones were 23-20 at Hawai’i and 20-15 at North Carolina, both in 2025. That spread of results is why the average sits at 21.0.

Wake Forest at home

Wake Forest’s home margins are smaller than its record suggests. Of its five home wins against FBS teams, two were by a single point: 10-9 over Kennesaw State and 13-12 over SMU, both in 2025.

The other three were 28-12 over North Carolina and 52-14 over Delaware in 2025, then 38-16 over Akron on 3 September. The three losses were 34-24 to NC State and 30-29 to Georgia Tech in 2025, and 33-20 to Miami on 18 September.

2026 so far

Wake Forest is 3-1 and 1-1 in the ACC. It beat Akron 38-16, won 38-36 at Purdue, lost 33-20 to Miami, then won 30-27 at Louisville last Saturday. It has scored 31.5 a game and allowed 28.0, every game against an FBS team.

2026 point margin in every game, Wake Forest and Stanford2026: point margin in every game so farWake Forest3-1, +3.5 a game+22Akron+2Purdue-13Miami+3LouisvilleStanford2-2, -12.5 a game+10Hawai'i-39Miami-28Duke+7Georgia TechColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Stanford is 2-2 and 1-2 in the ACC. It beat Hawai’i 37-27, lost 45-6 to Miami and 35-7 at Duke, then beat Georgia Tech 34-27 on 26 September. It has scored 21.0 and allowed 33.5, also every game against an FBS team.

Last season

Wake Forest went 9-4 in 2025 and won by 6.0 a game. It closed with a 43-29 win over Mississippi State on 2 January 2026. Stanford went 4-8, lost by 10.3 a game, and went 0-6 on the road.

2025 point margin in every game, Wake Forest and Stanford2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedWake Forest9-4, +6.0 a game+1+32-10-1+7+25+1-35+7+16+38-17+14Stanford4-8, -10.3 a game-3-24+10-28+1-24+7-35-15-5+21-29Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026.

The two teams did not meet in 2025.

The price

The line opened at Wake Forest -12.5 and has not moved, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Wake Forest -12.5 is priced at -112, Stanford +12.5 at -108.

Wake Forest opened -12.5 and is -12.5 nowWake Forest's line, from the open to nowpickopen -12.5now -12.5Negative numbers mean Wake Forest is giving points. The line has not moved.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The moneyline has Wake Forest at -500 and Stanford at +380, from -470 and +360 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Wake Forest to win 80.0% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Wake Forest at 87.9%.

Moneyline implies Stanford 20.0 percent, Wake Forest 80.0 percentChance to win the game, as pricedStanford 20.0%Wake Forest 80.0%From DraftKings's moneylines, Stanford +380 and Wake Forest -500, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Pick: no bet

Pass at Wake Forest -12.5. The gap is 1.4 points against a 3-point threshold.

The number rests on 15 games, split 8 and 7, and it agrees with the market to within a point and a half.

What changes it

Wake Forest becomes a bet at -10.5 or shorter, where the gap is 3.4. At -11 it is 2.9, still a pass. That needs 2 points of movement toward Stanford.

Stanford becomes a bet at +17 or longer, where the gap is 3.1. At +16.5 it is 2.6. That needs 4.5 points of movement toward Wake Forest, and the line has not moved at all since it opened. Availability is not stated on this page.

The total

The total opened at 54.5 and is 53.5 now, with both sides at -110.

Game totals for Wake Forest and Stanford against 53.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 53.510203040506070809053.5Wake Forest8 of 16 over 53.5Stanford6 of 16 over 53.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Stanford’s games went over 53.5 in 6 of 16, and Wake Forest’s in 8 of 16. Wake Forest’s four games this season produced 54, 74, 53 and 57 points.

Pass on the total at 53.5. Wake Forest’s sample is an exact half, and Stanford’s lean under is not enough on its own.

Schedules and results for both teams: Stanford Cardinal and Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.

Stanford at Wake Forest, Saturday 3 October, 12:00 PM ET, Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.