CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyTXST-7.5U 57.5-305SDSU+7.5O 57.5+245
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Texas State at San Diego State Final Score: San Diego State Win 31-29
Final: San Diego State Aztecs 31, Texas State Bobcats 29, Saturday 3 October at Snapdragon Stadium.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Our number has San Diego State by 10.8. At +4.5, take San Diego State.” San Diego State +4.5 won: San Diego State won by 2.
What decided it
San Diego State won the third quarter by 21. San Diego State turned the ball over 0 times to Texas State’s 2, and gained 239 yards to 565.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State Bobcats | 10 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 29 |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 3 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is TXST -10, with a total of 57.5. Texas State did not cover as the favourite. The 60 points went over the total.
What comes next
Texas State plays next at the Boise State Broncos on Saturday 31 October. San Diego State plays next against the Washington State Cougars on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Texas State at San Diego State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has San Diego State by 10.8. At +4.5, take San Diego State.
Texas State opened as a 4.5-point favorite at San Diego State at DraftKings and is still 4.5. Our number has San Diego State winning by 10.8. The gap is 15.3 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
San Diego State is 5-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 15.2 points a game across 6 games. Texas State is 2-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 6.3 a game across 7 games. The difference is 21.5 points. Half of it is 10.75, which rounds to 10.8.
That is 13 games, and only 2 are from 2026: San Diego State’s 26-13 home loss to James Madison, and Texas State’s 59-7 loss at Texas.
Where the gap comes from
San Diego State’s five home wins over FBS teams were all in 2025: 34-0 over California, 45-24 over Colorado State, 24-7 over Wyoming, 17-7 over Boise State and 25-3 over San José State. The one home loss is this season’s, 26-13 to James Madison on 19 September.
Texas State’s road average carries a 59-7 loss at Texas on 5 September. Take it out and the other six road games average +1.3, a sum of 8 over 6. Three of those six were losses by 3 points or fewer: 31-30 at Arkansas State, 40-37 at Marshall and 42-39 at Louisiana.
On that reading our number would be San Diego State by about 7, half of 15.2 minus 1.3. Against +4.5 that is still a gap of more than 11 points. The pick does not rest on the Texas game.
2026 so far
This is the part that argues against us. San Diego State is 1-3, and 0-3 against FBS teams. It lost 28-10 at UCLA, 26-13 to James Madison at home and 41-16 at Toledo on 26 September. Against those three it has scored 13.0 a game and allowed 31.7. The win was 53-20 over Portland State, a team outside the FBS.
Texas State is 2-2. It lost 59-7 at Texas and 31-26 to UTSA at home, then beat North Texas 49-35 and Incarnate Word 63-10, both at home. It has scored 36.2 a game.
This is a Pac-12 game. Neither team has played a conference game yet.
Last season
San Diego State went 9-4 in 2025, won by 11.0 a game and allowed 15.4. It was 6-0 at home. Its season ended with a 49-47 loss to North Texas on 27 December, at a neutral site.
Texas State went 7-6 and won by 7.5 a game, but went 2-4 on the road. It ended with a 41-10 win over Rice on 2 January 2026, at a neutral site. The two teams did not meet in 2025. Both schedules are on the Texas State Bobcats and San Diego State Aztecs team pages.
The price
Texas State opened at -4.5 and is -4.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. San Diego State’s side is priced at -115 and Texas State’s at -105.
The moneyline has Texas State at -192 and San Diego State at +160, from -180 and +150 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Texas State to win 63.1% of the time. ESPN’s FPI is closer to even, with Texas State at 52.1%.
The market has Texas State as the likelier winner. We have San Diego State by 10.8. That disagreement is 15.3 points.
Pick: San Diego State +4.5
San Diego State +4.5 at -115. The gap is 15.3 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 6 and 7. The sample is 2025’s San Diego State at home, and 2026’s version has not yet won a game against an FBS team.
What changes it
The line has a long way to go. At San Diego State -7.5 the gap is 3.3 and the bet stands. At -8 it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass. That is 12.5 points from where the line sits now.
The real risk is the one the method cannot see. San Diego State’s 0-3 against FBS teams this season, at -18.7 a game, may be the team that takes the field, and only one of its six home games in the sample is from 2026. This page does not state who is available, so check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 60.5 and is 58.5 now, over -108 and under -112.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, San Diego State’s games went over 58.5 in 2 of 15, and Texas State’s in 10 of 15. The two teams pull hard in opposite directions.
Pass on the total at 58.5. The two samples cancel out.
Texas State at San Diego State, Saturday 3 October, 10:30 PM ET, Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.