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UL Monroe vs Troy Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our number is Troy by 13.4. The line is Troy -11.5. No bet.

UL Monroe at Troy kicks off Saturday 24 October at 4:00 PM ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium. DraftKings has Troy -11.5. Our number is Troy -13.4. The gap is 1.9 points on Troy’s side, and a bet needs 3.

The prices and what they say

At DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, Troy -11.5 is priced at -112 and UL Monroe +11.5 at -108. Troy opened at -17.5.

Troy opened -17.5 and is -11.5 nowTroy's line, from the open to nowpickopen -17.5now -11.5Negative numbers mean Troy is giving points. The line has moved 6 points toward UL Monroe.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

The moneyline is Troy -600 and UL Monroe +440. A book builds a margin into its prices, so the two implied chances add to more than 100%. With that margin taken out, the market gives Troy 82.2% to win and UL Monroe 17.8%. ESPN’s FPI has Troy at 91.3% and UL Monroe at 8.6%. Our method stakes the spread, so the moneyline is context here.

How Troy -13.4 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are neutral-site games and are left out.

Troy is 5-2 at home against FBS teams in that span, winning by 3.0 points a game over 7 games. UL Monroe is 1-9 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 23.7 points a game over 10 games. Half the difference is 13.4, so our line is Troy -13.4.

Moneyline implies UL Monroe 17.8 percent, Troy 82.2 percentChance to win the game, as pricedUL Monroe 17.8%Troy 82.2%From DraftKings's moneylines, UL Monroe +440 and Troy -600, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Both samples clear the 4-game minimum. The rule is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart. At -11.5 they are 1.9 apart, and the price is close enough to our figure that there is nothing to stake.

This season so far

None of this is in our number. Troy is 3-3, 1-1 in the Sun Belt West and 3-0 at home, and 2-3 against FBS teams. It scores 24.3 points a game and allows 25.5. Against FBS teams its margin is -4.8. Most recently it lost 33-6 at Louisiana on 17 October.

UL Monroe is 0-6, 0-2 in conference and 0-3 at home, and 0-5 against FBS teams. It scores 20.0 and allows 41.2, a margin of -21.2 a game, and -24.8 against FBS teams. Its last game was a 24-0 home loss to Louisiana Tech on 17 October.

Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 8.

Troy at home, UL Monroe on the road

Two of Troy’s seven home games against FBS teams are from this season: 24-21 over Sam Houston on 5 September and 55-34 over Southern Miss on 6 October. The 3-point win over Sam Houston is why the home half of the number is modest. Troy’s average home margin against FBS teams across both seasons is 3.0.

UL Monroe’s three road games this season were all losses: 62-13 at Mississippi State, 26-20 at UAB and 52-35 at South Alabama. So its one road win against an FBS team in the span came in 2025. In 2025 it went 1-6 on the road overall.

The method leaves out the other halves. Troy is 0-3 on the road this season, losing 27-17 at Missouri, 21-10 at Utah State and 33-6 at Louisiana. UL Monroe is 0-3 at home: 38-35 to SE Louisiana, a team outside the FBS, 45-17 to Florida Atlantic and 24-0 to Louisiana Tech.

The season around it

Troy went 8-6 in 2025, 7-6 against FBS teams, with a margin of -0.4 a game. It was 4-2 at home and 4-3 on the road, and lost its bowl game 17-13 to Jacksonville State on 16 December 2025 at a neutral site. That game is outside our number.

2025 point margin in every game, Troy and UL Monroe2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedTroy8-6, -0.4 a game+18-11-21+4+7+7+23+12-13-33+12+10-17-4UL Monroe3-9, -15.3 a game+29-73+6+12-35-15-23-28-25-12-17-3Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026.

UL Monroe went 3-9 in 2025, 2-9 against FBS teams, scoring 16.6 a game and allowing 31.9, a margin of -15.3. It was 2-3 at home.

2026 point margin in every game, Troy and UL Monroe2026: point margin in every game so farTroy3-3, -1.2 a game+3+17-10-11+21-27UL Monroe0-6, -21.2 a game-49-6-3-28-17-24Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

The teams met once in the span. Troy won 37-14 at UL Monroe on 18 October 2025. That was a UL Monroe home game, so it sits in neither half the method uses.

Pick: No bet

No bet on Troy -11.5. Our number is Troy -13.4, a gap of 1.9 points against a 3-point threshold.

Troy -11.5 is -112 and UL Monroe +11.5 is -108 at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Troy opened at -17.5.

What kills the bet

The line decides it. Troy becomes the bet at -10.4 or better, meaning Troy laying 10.4 points or fewer. UL Monroe becomes the bet at +16.4 or better. At -11.5, neither side is there.

The ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, lists no injuries for this game. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 50.5, the same as at the open, with the over and the under both at -110.

Game totals for Troy and UL Monroe against 50.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 50.5203040506070809050.5Troy5 of 18 over 50.5UL Monroe8 of 16 over 50.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Troy’s games went over in 5 of 18 and UL Monroe’s in 8 of 16. This season Troy’s five FBS games produced 45, 44, 31, 89 and 39 points. UL Monroe’s produced 75, 46, 62, 87 and 24.

That is a count, and our method stakes the spread only. No bet on the total at 50.5.

UL Monroe at Troy, Saturday 24 October, 4:00 PM ET, Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.