CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyWMU-14U 46.5-600BUF+14O 46.5+440
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Western Michigan at Buffalo Final Score: Western Michigan Win 20-17
Final: Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17, Saturday 3 October at Broadview Stadium.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Western Michigan by 2.1. At +13.5, take Buffalo.” Buffalo +13.5 won: Buffalo lost by 3.
What decided it
Western Michigan won the fourth quarter by 7. Western Michigan turned the ball over 0 times to Buffalo’s 0, and gained 327 yards to 305.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan Broncos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| Buffalo Bulls | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is WMU -13.5, with a total of 46.5. Western Michigan did not cover as the favourite. The 37 points went under the total.
What comes next
Western Michigan plays next against the Bowling Green Falcons on Saturday 31 October. Buffalo plays next at the Miami (OH) RedHawks on Tuesday 3 November.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Western Michigan at Buffalo Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Western Michigan by 2.1. At +13.5, take Buffalo.
Western Michigan opened as a 16.5-point favorite at Buffalo at DraftKings and is 13.5 now. Our number is Western Michigan by 2.1. The gap is 11.4 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together.
Buffalo is 1-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 6.0 points a game across 6 games. Western Michigan is 4-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 1.8 a game across 8 games. Buffalo’s -6.0 against Western Michigan’s -1.8 is a difference of 4.2 in Western Michigan’s favor. Half of it is 2.1.
Six and eight games is what there is. Buffalo’s six are all from 2025: both of its home games this season were against teams outside the FBS. Two of Western Michigan’s eight are from 2026, a 13-12 loss at Michigan and a 28-21 win at Rice.
Buffalo at home
Buffalo lost five of its six home games against FBS teams, and most of them were close. The losses were 21-17 to Troy, 20-17 to UConn, 24-16 to Akron, 37-20 to Miami (OH) and 31-26 to Ohio. The win was 31-30 over Eastern Michigan.
Five of the six were decided by 8 points or fewer. The worst was the 17-point loss to Miami (OH).
The spread asks whether Western Michigan wins by 14 or more. On the road against FBS teams it has done that in 2 of 8 games: 21-3 at Massachusetts and 35-19 at Northern Illinois, both in 2025. Its other road win in 2025 was 31-21 at Eastern Michigan. Its road losses were 23-6 at Michigan State, 38-0 at Illinois and 26-17 at Miami (OH) in 2025, and 13-12 at Michigan this season.
2026 so far
Western Michigan is 2-2. It lost 13-12 at Michigan, beat Monmouth 49-14, a team outside the FBS, won 28-21 at Rice, and lost 32-7 at home to Boise State on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 15.7 a game and allowed 22.0.
Buffalo is 2-2 and 0-2 against FBS teams, both on the road: 33-20 at Florida International and 55-13 at Penn State. Its wins were 21-17 over UAlbany and 31-28 over Robert Morris on 26 September, both teams outside the FBS. Against FBS teams it has scored 16.5 a game and allowed 44.0.
Both teams are in the Mid-American Conference. Neither has played a conference game this season.
Last season
Western Michigan went 10-4 in 2025, won by 7.5 a game, and went 3-3 on the road. It beat Miami (OH) 23-13 on 6 December and Kennesaw State 41-6 on 19 December, both at neutral sites.
Buffalo went 5-7, won by 0.5 a game, and went 2-5 at home. It played no postseason game. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.
The price
Western Michigan opened at -16.5 and is -13.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 3-point move toward Buffalo. Western Michigan is priced at -115 and Buffalo at -105.
The moneyline has Western Michigan at -600 and Buffalo at +440, from -800 and +550 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Western Michigan to win 82.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Western Michigan at 84.4%.
Every measure here has Western Michigan winning, ours included. The disagreement is 11.4 points of margin.
Pick: Buffalo +13.5
Buffalo +13.5 at -105. The gap is 11.4 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 6 and 8. At the open the gap was 14.4.
What changes it
A long way of line movement. At Buffalo +5.5 the gap is 3.4 and the bet stands. At +5 it is 2.9, and the call becomes a pass.
Buffalo’s home number is a 2025 number. This season’s two FBS games, lost by 13 and by 42, are not in it. Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 51.5 and is 47.5 now, over -102 and under -118. That is a 4-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Western Michigan’s games went over 47.5 in 4 of 16, and Buffalo’s in 8 of 13. The two samples pull in opposite directions. Western Michigan’s three FBS games this season produced 25, 49 and 39 points; Buffalo’s two produced 53 and 68.
Pass on the total at 47.5.
The Western Michigan Broncos and Buffalo Bulls team pages hold both schedules and last season’s results. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.
Western Michigan at Buffalo, Saturday 3 October, 1:00 PM ET, Broadview Stadium, Buffalo. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.