Bears vs Falcons Best Pick, Prediction and Odds - ScoresAndStats.com Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
NFL · Sunday 18 October
XFacebookWhatsAppTelegramRedditEmail

Bears vs Falcons Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Tony PhillipsUpdated 16 Oct 2026

Take the under 52. The total has climbed five points this month, and neither season’s scoring gets these two teams near it.

Watch what Chicago’s games have done since the opener. The Bears won 59-37 at Carolina in Week 1, a 96-point game. Their four games since have finished on 12, 34, 35 and 38 points.

Where the price is

Six of the 11 US sportsbooks in the read of 16 October 2026 have the total at 52, and five have 51.5. On 7 October it was 46.5 and 47. DraftKings opened it at 47.5 and has 51.5 now, with the under at -108.

The side is close to even. Three books have Chicago -1.5, BetMGM, BetRivers, Bovada and MyBookie have -1, BetOnline, BetUS and LowVig have a pick’em, and Fanatics has Chicago -0.5. The middle of the eleven is Chicago -1. The moneyline median has the Bears at -118 and the Falcons at -105, which is 51.4% Chicago with the margin taken out.

Moneyline implies Bears 51.4 percent, Falcons 48.6 percentChance to win the game, as pricedBears 51.4%Falcons 48.6%From the median moneylines of 11 books, Bears -118 and Falcons -105, margin removed.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-16 16:43 UTC.

How I make the call

Same working every week. Each team’s points per game from last season, averaged with what the other side allowed, gives me a score for the game. This season’s games through the same sum give me a second one. Home field is worth two and a half points. When the market sits outside both numbers, and a field goal or more from last season’s, I bet the side they both point to. Anything short of that, I pass.

Last season, Chicago scored 25.9 a game and Atlanta allowed 23.6, so the Bears come out at 24.75. Atlanta scored 20.8 and Chicago allowed 24.4, so the Falcons come out at 22.6. Added up, that is 47.35 points.

This season, Chicago has scored 23.8 a game and Atlanta has allowed 24.4, so the Bears come out at 24.1. Atlanta has scored 23.8 and Chicago has allowed 19.2, so the Falcons come out at 21.5. Added up, 45.6.

Pick: under 52

Both numbers sit under the market. Against 52, last season’s working is 4.65 points away and this season’s is 6.4. That clears my field goal with room. At the five books with 51.5 it is still 4.15, and still a bet.

Take the 52 where you can find it. The under is priced from -102 at LowVig to -110 at 52, and -108 to -110 at 51.5. At -110 the bet needs to win 52.4% of the time. It stays a bet down to 50.5. At 50 the gap is 2.65 and I pass.

2025 game totals for Falcons and Bears against a total of 522025: total points in every game, against this week's 52203040506070809052Falconsmedian 45Bearsmedian 46Each dot is one 2025 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. The line: median of the books quoting the game.

The record backs it. Last season 13 of Chicago’s 17 games and 13 of Atlanta’s 17 finished under 52. This season Atlanta’s have finished on 33, 37, 49, 69 and 53 points, two of five over. I can’t see where a 52-point game comes from unless one team’s defence falls apart, and Chicago’s has allowed 19.2 a game.

No bet on the side

Last season’s working makes Atlanta a 0.35-point favourite at home. This season’s makes Chicago a 0.1-point favourite. The market, at Chicago -1, sits outside both, but only 1.35 points from last season’s number. That is short of a field goal, so I pass.

2025 point margin in every game, Falcons and Bears2025 regular season, point margin in every gameFalcons8-9-3+16-30+7+10-10-24-1-6-3+14-3-28+1+7+3+2Bears11-6-3-31+17+1+1+12-14+5+4+2+3+9-7+28+6-4-3Blue bars are wins, grey bars are losses. Neutral-site games are included here.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN.

Chicago went 11-6 last season and was plus 26. Atlanta went 8-9 and was minus 48. This season the Bears are 3-2: 59-37 at Carolina, a 9-3 loss to Minnesota, 27-7 over Philadelphia, 23-12 over the Jets and a 31-7 loss at Green Bay. The Falcons are 2-3 and 0-2 at home: 20-13 at Pittsburgh, a 34-3 home loss to Carolina, wins of 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans, then a 30-23 home loss to Baltimore.

These two did not meet last season, and our game records start in 2025.

What changes it

The price. The under is a bet at 50.5 and above. If the total keeps climbing, it gets better, not worse.

Who plays. ESPN’s injury list for this game, read on 16 October, has Caleb Williams questionable with a hamstring injury. This page prices no injury news, so read both teams’ reports first, Chicago’s above all.

Take the under 52.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 18 October 2026, 1:00 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. Prices: eleven US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 16 October 2026, 16:43 UTC; DraftKings opening and current prices via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 16:44 UTC. Injuries: ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 16 October 2026, 14:35 UTC. Results: Nucleus, the 2025 season checked game by game against ESPN, and 2026 through Week 5, checked against the ESPN scoreboard. Every Week 6 game: NFL Week 6 odds and predictions.