Bengals at Dolphins Final Score: Bengals Win 31-24

Final: Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24, Sunday 11 October at Hard Rock Stadium.

Our call pushed. Before the game this page said: “Take Miami +7.” Dolphins +7 pushed: Miami lost by 7.

What decided it

Cincinnati won the second quarter by 14. Cincinnati turned the ball over 1 time to Miami’s 3, and gained 307 yards to 331.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is CIN -7.5, with a total of 45.5. Cincinnati did not cover as the favourite. The 55 points went over the total.

What comes next

Cincinnati plays next at the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday 25 October. Miami plays next at the New York Jets on Sunday 25 October.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Bengals at Dolphins prediction: Take Dolphins +7”.

Take Miami +7. The market has Cincinnati winning in Miami by more than either season’s scores say it should.

Watch the Miami offence. The Dolphins have not scored more than 13 points in any of their four games this season, and this price is built on that staying true for one more week.

What changed since the first version

The first version of this page, with prices read on 28 September, said: “No bet on Bengals at Dolphins at Cincinnati -6.” The line had been posted on 13 September and had not moved, and nothing in the results told me what it was built on.

Week 4 changed both halves of that. Miami lost again and is 0-4. And the price went a point further, to Cincinnati -7. Put the fresh numbers through the same working and the pass becomes a bet on Miami.

Where the price is

Eight of the 11 US sportsbooks in the read of 6 October 2026 have Cincinnati -7. BetMGM, BetRivers and FanDuel have -7.5.

It has been higher. The last time any book had Cincinnati at -10 was Sunday 4 October. It is back at 7.

On Miami +7 the price runs from -110 to -102. At -110 the bet needs to win 52.4% of the time to break even, and at -102 it needs 50.5%. Shop it, and take the +7.5 at BetMGM (-115) or BetRivers (-114) if you can get it.

The moneyline has Cincinnati at -385 and Miami at +300, the median of 11 books. Take out the bookmaker’s margin and that prices Cincinnati to win 76.0% of the time.

How I make the call

Same working every week. Each team’s points per game from last season, averaged with what the other side allowed, gives me a score for the game. This season’s games through the same sum give me a second one. Home field is worth two and a half points. When the market sits outside both numbers, and a field goal or more from last season’s, I bet the side they both point to. When it sits between them, I pass.

Last season says Miami. Cincinnati scored 24.4 a game and Miami allowed 24.9, so Cincinnati comes out at 24.65. Miami scored 20.4 and Cincinnati allowed 28.9, so Miami comes out at 24.65 as well. Dead level on a neutral field, and Miami by 2.5 at home. The market is 9.5 points from that.

This season says Cincinnati, by less than the market does. The Bengals have scored 24.25 a game and Miami has allowed 25.25, so Cincinnati comes out at 24.75. Miami has scored 11.5 a game and Cincinnati has allowed 21.25, so Miami comes out at 16.4. That is Cincinnati by 8.4 on a neutral field and about 5.9 in Miami.

So the 7 sits outside both. Last season’s numbers would make Miami the favourite. This season’s, with every point of the 0-4 start already in them, still stop short of a touchdown.

What this season has shown

Miami lost 27-13 in Las Vegas, 35-13 in San Francisco, 24-10 at home to Kansas City and 15-10 in Minnesota. That is 46 points scored in four games and 101 allowed.

The last one is the one I would look at. Minnesota closed as a 10.5-point favourite and won by five. It was the first time this season Miami covered.

Cincinnati is 2-2, and the wins came first. The Bengals beat Tampa Bay 33-27 at home and won 20-6 in Houston. Then they lost 30-27 in Pittsburgh and 22-17 at home to Jacksonville, as a 2.5-point favourite. Their scoring has gone 33, 20, 27, 17.

What last season says

Both teams finished 2025 well behind. Cincinnati went 6-11 and was outscored by 78 points. Miami went 7-10 and was outscored by 77.

On the road Cincinnati was 3-5, scoring 21.4 a game and allowing 28.4. Miami was 4-4 at home, scoring 22.4 and allowing 25.4, with its game in Madrid left out of both. A Bengals defence that allowed 28.4 a game on the road is a lot to trust with a touchdown.

The one meeting goes the other way. Cincinnati won 45-21 in Miami on 21 December last season. It is one game and it proves nothing about this one, but it is the only time these two have met in the data I have, which starts with the 2025 season.

The call

Take Miami +7. At +7 a Cincinnati win by exactly seven is a push. At +7.5 it is a win for this bet, which is why the half point is worth paying -114 or -115 for.

Leave the moneyline alone. The bet is on the margin, and four games of 11.5 points a game give me no reason to think Miami wins outright.

The total

The total was 48 to 49.5 on 13 September. It is 42.5 now at six books and 42 at the other five. I leave it alone.

The two seasons point opposite ways. Last season’s working gives 49.3 points, 6.8 above the market. This season’s gives 41.1, below it. The market sits between them, and that is a pass.

Miami’s four games this season finished on 40, 48, 34 and 25 points. Cincinnati’s finished on 60, 26, 57 and 39. Last season 13 of Cincinnati’s 17 games went over 42.5, and 11 of Miami’s did.

What changes it

The price. At +7.5 the bet is better. At +6 I would still take it, just. At +5.5 the line is inside this season’s number and I pass.

Who plays. This page prices no injury news, so read both teams’ reports before you bet.

Take Miami +7.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins, Sunday 11 October 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Prices: median across 11 US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 6 October 2026, 04:20 UTC. Results: Nucleus, the 2025 season checked game by game against ESPN, and 2026 through Week 4. Every Week 5 game: NFL Week 5 odds and predictions.