Panthers vs Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds - ScoresAndStats.com Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
NHL · Wednesday 21 October
XFacebookWhatsAppTelegramRedditEmail

Panthers vs Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Tyler WilliamsUpdated 20 Oct 2026

Bet the Senators at -108. Florida lost 24 of its 41 road games last season, and our number makes Ottawa a 57.3% winner at home against the price’s 49.6%.

The Ottawa Senators are -108 and the Florida Panthers -112 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 49.6% for Ottawa and 50.4% for Florida. The price has the visitors as a slight favourite. Our figures have the Senators clearly ahead.

How 57.3% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half: Florida’s 5-1 loss to the Rangers in the Winter Classic at loanDepot park on 2 January is the only one either team played.

The Senators went 23-12-6 at Canadian Tire Centre, a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Panthers went 17-23-1 on the road: 23 regulation losses and 1 after regulation, so 24 losses in 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The midpoint is 57.3% for Ottawa and 42.7% for Florida, a gap of 7.7 points to the price.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -108 and -112 they come to 104.8%. Taken out, the Senators are 49.6% and the Panthers 50.4%.

Our number gives Senators 57.3 percent, the market 49.6 percentPanthers at Senators: chance to win, ours against the market'sOur numberlast season, home and roadPanthers 42.7%Senators 57.3%The marketmoneyline, margin removedPanthers 50.4%Senators 49.6%Moneylines: Panthers -112, Senators -108. A side is a bet when the two differ by 5 points or more.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 20 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-20 22:14 UTC.

Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Ottawa home games and 41 Florida road games. This season has started for both and none of it is in the figures. The Senators are 6-3-0, 3-1-0 at home, and lost 3-1 in Philadelphia on Saturday. Linus Ullmark has played seven of their games and Samuel Ersson three. The Panthers are 5-2-2, 3-1-2 on the road, and beat Seattle 8-3 at home on Saturday.

Ottawa at home, Florida on the road

The Senators at home scored 3.39 a game and allowed 2.63, a surplus of 0.76. The Panthers on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.73, a deficit of 0.85.

Senators at home and Panthers on the road in 2025-262025-26: Senators at home against Panthers on the roadGoals scored per gameSenators at home 3.39Panthers on the road 2.88Goals allowed per gameSenators at home 2.63Panthers on the road 3.73RecordSenators at home 23-12-6Panthers on the road 17-23-1Senators: 41 home games. Panthers: 41 road games. Neutral-site games are left out.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 20 October 2026.

The halves the method leaves out: Ottawa on the road went 21-15-5, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.37. Florida at home went 23-14-3, 57.5%, scoring 3.30 and allowing 2.95. The Panthers were a different team in their own arena.

Over the full season these two finished 15 points apart. Ottawa went 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 32, then was swept 4-0 by Carolina in the first round. Florida went 40-38-4 with 84 points, was outscored by 25, and missed the playoffs.

2025-26 goal margin in every game, Senators and Panthers2025-26 regular season: goal margin in every gameSenators44-27-11+0.39 goals a gamePanthers40-38-4-0.31 goals a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, first game on the left. A shootout counts as one goal.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 20 October 2026. Record is wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses.

Florida’s record leans on close games. The Panthers went 21-6-4 in one-goal games and won 8 of the 12 that went past regulation. Ottawa went 16-10-11 in one-goal games and won 6 of its 17 past 60 minutes. The Panthers lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games.

The Panthers won three of the four meetings in 2025-26. The two in Ottawa are in both halves of our number: a 3-2 Florida win on 10 January and a 5-1 Ottawa win on 9 April. The two in Florida, 6-2 on 11 October and 6-3 on 31 March, both Panthers wins, are in neither.

Pick: Senators -108

Bet the Senators on the moneyline at -108. The gap is 7.7 points toward Ottawa, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Senators -108 and Panthers -112 on 20 October 2026 at 22:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Senators -115 and Panthers -105.

What kills the bet

A shorter Ottawa price. At -109 or longer the Senators are a bet whatever Florida is priced at; against Florida at -112, they stay a bet up to -138.

For the Panthers to become the bet, they would have to be +166 or longer. They are -112.

The goalies are the open question. Jacob Markstrom, who has played in six of Florida’s nine games this season, is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, in an entry dated Tuesday with 4 November given as his expected return (ESPN injury list, read 20 October 2026, 22:14 UTC). Akira Schmid has played in four. Markstrom played none of Florida’s games last season, so he is not in our number and the method is not re-run without him. Florida also lists Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Jonah Gadjovich on injured reserve. Ottawa lists Thomas Chabot as out, and William Eklund and Kurtis MacDermid on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Senators’ games went over 5.5 in 45 of 82, the Panthers’ in 50 of 82. Ottawa’s home games averaged 6.02 goals, Florida’s road games 6.61.

2025-26 game totals for Senators and Panthers2025-26: total goals in every game, against this game's 5.5012345678910111213145.5Senatorsover 5.5 in 45 of 82Panthersover 5.5 in 50 of 82Each dot is one 2025-26 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 20 October 2026. A shootout winner counts as one goal. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-20 22:14 UTC.

That is 54.9% and 61.0%, an average of 57.9% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%, so our number leans to the over by 4.7 points, short of the 5 a bet needs. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Ottawa is -1.5 at +225 and Florida +1.5 at -278, which is 29.5% and 70.5% without the margin. Over the full season the Senators won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Panthers lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Senators -1.5 lands 36.6% of the time against 29.5% priced, a gap of 7.1 points. That is a lean to Senators -1.5 at +225, not a bet: our method stakes the moneyline only. One bet on this game: the Senators at -108.

Panthers at Senators, Wednesday 21 October, 7:30 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 20 October 2026, 22:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Florida’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores, read 20 October 2026. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 20 October 2026, 22:14 UTC.