Canadiens vs Blackhawks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our Canadiens vs Blackhawks prediction is the Canadiens at -142. Our number has Montreal at 62.2% in Chicago against the price’s 56.3%.

DraftKings has the Canadiens at -142 and the Blackhawks at +120 for Friday 23 October, 8:00 PM ET, at the United Center. The two prices add to 104.1%. Take that margin out and the market gives Montreal 56.3% and Chicago 43.7%. The gap between our number and the price is 5.9 points, and our threshold for a bet is 5.0. It clears by 0.9, so this is a bet, but not a large one.

How 62.2% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.

The Blackhawks went 14-19-8 at home, a 34.1% win rate. The Canadiens went 24-9-8 on the road, which is a 41.5% road loss rate. Average 34.1% and 41.5% and Chicago is 37.8%, Montreal 62.2%. The market has Chicago at 43.7%, so the gap is 5.9 points toward the Canadiens.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. A fair pair adds to exactly 100%. Here the pair adds to 104.1%, and the 56.3% and 43.7% are what is left once it is removed.

The line has moved toward Chicago. The Canadiens opened at -166 and the Blackhawks at +140, which gave the Blackhawks 40.0%. The market now gives them 3.6 points more than at the open. The gap survived the move.

This season so far

None of the following is in our number. Chicago is 3-6-0, 3-2-0 at home, and lost 4-0 to Dallas on Saturday 17 October. Spencer Knight has played seven of their games and Arvid Soderblom two. Montreal is 4-3-2, 1-1-1 on the road, and lost 4-3 in overtime at San Jose on Tuesday 20 October. Jakub Dobes has played five of their games and Jacob Fowler four.

Blackhawks at home, Canadiens on the road

At home the Blackhawks scored 2.61 a game and allowed 3.29, a deficit of 0.68. The Canadiens on the road scored 3.56 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.41. That is a 1.09-goal swing in Montreal’s favour before any average is taken.

The halves the method leaves out point the same way. The Blackhawks on the road went 15-20-6, a 36.6% win rate, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.41. The Canadiens at home went 24-15-2, 58.5%, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.10. Montreal won at the same rate in both buildings.

The season around it

Montreal went 48-24-10 with 106 points and a goal difference of +27. In the playoffs they beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3, then lost 4-1 to Carolina. Chicago went 29-39-14 with 72 points, a goal difference of -62, and missed the playoffs.

The Canadiens went 23-6-10 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Blackhawks went 13-8-14 in one-goal games and won 7 of 21 past regulation. Montreal won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 18. Chicago won by two or more in 16 and lost by two or more in 31.

Montreal won both meetings in 2025-26. It won 3-2 in Chicago on Saturday 11 October 2025, a game in both halves of our number, and 4-1 at home on Thursday 18 December 2025, which is in neither half.

Pick: Canadiens -142

Bet the Canadiens on the moneyline at -142. The gap is 5.9 points toward Montreal against a threshold of 5.0.

The line read Canadiens -142 and Blackhawks +120 at DraftKings via ESPN on 22 October 2026 at 20:39 UTC. It opened at -166 and +140.

What kills the bet

A shorter Montreal price. At -133 or longer the Canadiens are a bet whatever Chicago is priced at. Against Chicago at +120, they stay a bet down to -155. A price shorter than -155 ends the bet.

For the Blackhawks to become the bet, they would need to be +249 or longer against Montreal at -142, or +205 or longer whatever the Canadiens are priced at. They are +120.

The thin margin matters because the market has been moving toward Chicago since the open. Another move of that size would end the bet.

ESPN’s injury list, read 22 October 2026 at 20:39 UTC, has Nick Suzuki out with an upper-body injury for Montreal. Mike Matheson is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov and goalie Sam Montembeault are on injured reserve. Chicago has Andrew Mangiapane on injured reserve and Bowen Byram day-to-day with an upper-body injury. These absences are not in our number, and we do not change the call on them. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +102 and under -122. The Blackhawks’ games went over 6.5 in 33 of 82, or 40.2%. The Canadiens’ went over in 44 of 82, or 53.7%. Chicago’s home games averaged 5.9 goals and Montreal’s road games 6.71.

Averaged, our over chance is 47.0%. With the margin removed, the market prices the over at 47.4% and the under at 52.6%. That is a 0.4-point lean to the under, well short of 5.0. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Montreal -1.5 is +180 and Chicago +1.5 is -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. The Canadiens won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games, and the Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Our figure for Montreal covering is 34.1%, a 0.1-point lean to Blackhawks +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean and not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Canadiens at -142.

*Canadiens at Blackhawks, Friday 23 October, 8:00 PM ET, United Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:39 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:39 UTC.*