NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyPIT+1.5U 6.5+190VGK-1.5O 6.5-230
NHL · Saturday 17 October
Penguins vs Golden Knights Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Penguins at +190. The price makes Vegas a heavy favourite; our number has Pittsburgh slightly ahead, 51.9% against the price’s 33.1%.
The Vegas Golden Knights are -230 and the Pittsburgh Penguins +190 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that prices Vegas at 66.9% and Pittsburgh at 33.1%. Our number has the Golden Knights at 48.1%. That is an 18.8-point gap, and it runs the other way from the price.
Where 48.1% comes from
The number is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both. Vegas had none; Pittsburgh’s two games in Stockholm are out of its road half.
The Golden Knights went 20-12-9 at T-Mobile Arena: 20 wins, 12 regulation losses, 9 after regulation, a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Penguins went 21-12-7 on the road and lost 19 of 40, a 47.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Vegas is 48.1%, Pittsburgh 51.9%.
Vegas won fewer than half its home games. Pittsburgh won more than half its road games. A -230 price reads like neither of those.
The margin is the extra a book puts into both prices so they add to more than 100%. At -230 and +190 they add to 104.2%. Taken out, the Golden Knights are 66.9% and the Penguins 33.1%.
There is a fair objection, and it is a large one. Vegas went on to win three playoff series, and the method uses only regular-season rates. That is the design: the same two rates on every page, never the ones that suit the pick. Our inputs are 41 Vegas home games and 40 Pittsburgh road games, all from 2025-26.
This season has started for both and none of it is in the figures. Vegas is 7-2-0 and beat Calgary 6-2 at home on Thursday. Pittsburgh is 3-3-1 and lost 5-3 in Chicago on Tuesday. The Penguins play in Colorado on Friday night, 9:00 PM ET, so this is the second game of a back-to-back for Pittsburgh. That game had not been played when this page was written.
Vegas at home, Pittsburgh on the road
The goals are close to level. Vegas at home scored 3.56 a game and allowed 3.10, a surplus of 0.46. Pittsburgh on the road scored 3.55 and allowed 3.08, a surplus of 0.47. On these two halves there is nothing to choose between them.
The other halves, which the method does not use: Vegas on the road went 19-14-8, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 2.90 and allowing 3.00. Pittsburgh at home went 19-13-8, 47.5%, scoring 3.65 and allowing 3.58.
Over the regular season the two were close. The Golden Knights finished 39-26-17 with 95 points and outscored opponents by 15. The Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25. The playoffs are where they split: Vegas beat Utah 4-2, Anaheim 4-2 and Colorado 4-0, then lost 4-2 to Carolina. Pittsburgh lost its only series, 4-2 to Philadelphia.
Both lived in close games. Vegas went past regulation 26 times and won 9 of them, and went 16-10-17 in one-goal games. Pittsburgh went past regulation 23 times and won 7, and went 12-7-16 in one-goal games.
The two teams met twice in 2025-26 and split. Vegas won 6-2 at T-Mobile Arena on 12 March, and that game is the only meeting in our number: it is one of Vegas’s 41 home games and one of Pittsburgh’s 40 road games. Pittsburgh won 5-0 at home on 1 March, which is in neither half.
Pick: Penguins +190
Bet the Penguins on the moneyline at +190. The gap is 18.8 points toward Pittsburgh, against a threshold of 5.
The line has not moved since it opened at Golden Knights -230 and Penguins +190. It was read on 16 October 2026 at 15:38 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What kills the bet
It would take a large move in the price. At +114 or longer Pittsburgh is a bet whatever Vegas is priced at. Against Vegas at -230, the bet still holds with the Penguins at even money.
For the Golden Knights to become the bet, they would have to drift to +133 or longer. They are -230.
What the number cannot see is where the risk sits. It is built from regular-season rates, and Vegas’s three playoff series wins are not in it. The back-to-back is not in it either: Pittsburgh plays in Colorado the night before, and who starts in goal on the second night is not known here. This page states nothing about who plays for either team on 17 October. Check both before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -118 and under -102. The Golden Knights’ games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82, the Penguins’ in 47 of 82. Vegas’s home games averaged 6.66 goals, Pittsburgh’s road games 6.63.
That is 46.3% and 57.3%, an average of 51.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.7% and the under at 48.3%. The two are level. Pass on the total.
The puck line points the same way as the pick, and by more. Vegas is -1.5 at +105 and Pittsburgh +1.5 at -125, which is 46.8% and 53.2% without the margin. The Golden Knights won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games. The Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Vegas -1.5 lands 25.0% of the time against 46.8% priced, a gap of 21.8 points toward Penguins +1.5 at -125. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this stays a lean, on the same side as the pick. One bet on this game: the Penguins at +190.
Penguins at Golden Knights, Saturday 17 October, 10:00 PM ET, T-Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 15:38 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 16 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.