NHL
SpreadTotalMoneySJ+1.5U 6.5+120DET-1.5O 6.5-142
NHL · Saturday 17 October
Sharks vs Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Sharks at +120. Detroit is the likelier winner by our number and by the price, and the two sit 2.6 points apart, short of the bar of 5.
The Detroit Red Wings are -142 and the San Jose Sharks +120 at DraftKings. With the margin out, the market makes Detroit 56.3% and San Jose 43.7%. Our number has the Red Wings at 53.7%. Same favourite, a little smaller, and not by enough to bet.
Where 53.7% comes from
Our home win chance averages two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. A win after regulation counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are in neither half; neither team played one.
Detroit went 21-16-4 at Little Caesars Arena: 21 wins, 16 regulation losses, 4 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. San Jose went 18-21-2 on the road, so 23 of 41 road games lost, a 56.1% road loss rate. Average the two and Detroit is 53.7%, San Jose 46.3%.
The Sharks’ road record does most of the work here. It is poor, and the price already says so.
The margin is what a book builds into both prices so they total more than 100%. At -142 and +120 they total 104.1%. Taken out, the Red Wings are 56.3% and the Sharks 43.7%.
A 2.6-point lean on last season’s records is worth no more than its inputs: 41 Detroit home games and 41 San Jose road games, all from 2025-26. This season is not in them. San Jose is 4-3-0 and won 3-2 in a shootout in Nashville on Thursday. Detroit is 2-3-2 and beat the Philadelphia Flyers 2-1 at home the same night. Both have Friday off.
Detroit at home, San Jose on the road
On goals, both halves were in the red. At home the Red Wings scored 3.10 a game and allowed 3.34, outscored by 0.24. The Sharks on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.66, outscored by 0.61.
The method reads only those two halves. In the others, Detroit went 20-15-6 on the road, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.78 and allowing 2.95. San Jose went 21-14-6 at home, 51.2%, scoring 3.07 and allowing 3.46.
Over the season Detroit was six points better. The Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points and were outscored by 17. The Sharks finished 39-35-8 with 86 points and were outscored by 41. Neither reached the playoffs.
San Jose’s record leaned on one-goal games: 22-5-8 in them, with 12 wins in the 20 that went past regulation. Only 17 of the Sharks’ 39 wins came by two goals or more, and they lost by two or more 30 times. Detroit went 18-5-10 in one-goal games, won 11 of 21 past 60 minutes, and won 23 of its 41 by two or more.
Detroit won both meetings in 2025-26. The 4-2 win at Little Caesars Arena on 16 January is the only one in our number, one of Detroit’s 41 home games and one of San Jose’s 41 road games. The 3-2 shootout win at SAP Center on 2 November 2025 falls in neither half.
Pick: No bet on the Sharks +120
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 2.6 points toward San Jose, and the threshold is 5.
The line opened at Red Wings -142 and Sharks +120 and had not moved when it was read on 16 October 2026 at 15:38 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What makes it a bet
A longer Sharks price. Against Detroit at -142, San Jose becomes a bet at +142. At +143 or longer the Sharks are a bet whatever Detroit is priced at.
Detroit needs far more. Against San Jose at +120, the Red Wings would have to drift out to +132 before they became the bet, and they are -142.
Lineups are the other unknown. This page states nothing about who plays for either team on 17 October. Check both before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -102 and under -118. The Red Wings’ games went over 6.5 in 37 of 82, the Sharks’ in 42 of 82. Detroit’s home games averaged 6.44 goals, San Jose’s road games 6.71.
That is 45.1% and 51.2%, an average of 48.2% for the over. Without the margin the over is priced at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%. The gap is 0.1 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has Detroit -1.5 at +180 and San Jose +1.5 at -218, 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. The Red Wings won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Detroit -1.5 lands 32.3% of the time against 34.3% priced. A gap of 1.9 points toward Sharks +1.5, well short of 5. Pass. The call on this game is no bet.
Sharks at Red Wings, Saturday 17 October, 7:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 15:38 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 16 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.