Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take Crystal Palace to beat Liverpool at Selhurst Park. Our number has Palace 10.4 points above the market, against a 5-point threshold.

This Liverpool vs Crystal Palace prediction rests on a single gap. DraftKings has Crystal Palace at +425, the draw at +340 and Liverpool at -170. The book builds in a margin of 4.7%: the prices are set so the three chances add to more than 100%, and that extra is the book’s cut. With the margin removed, the market reads Liverpool 60.1%, the draw 21.7% and Crystal Palace 18.2%.

We have Liverpool at 45.8%, the draw at 25.6% and Crystal Palace at 28.6%. Palace sit 10.4 points above the market, the draw 3.9 above and Liverpool 14.3 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s. Palace clear that line and the draw does not.

How 28.6% is reached

Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at that venue. That average is scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league. A Poisson model on the two expected-goal figures then gives the home win, the draw and the away win. No bet is made when either team has fewer than 4 games in the sample.

Both clubs run on their 2025-26 Premier League venue records, 19 games each, against that season’s averages over 380 games: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Palace’s home scoring comes out at 0.66 of the league’s home rate. Liverpool conceded away at 1.14 times it. That gives Crystal Palace 1.14 expected goals.

Liverpool’s away scoring was 1.25 times the visitor’s rate, and Palace conceded at home at 0.99 of it. That leaves Liverpool 1.51 expected goals. A gap of 0.37 goals between the two sides is closer than a -170 price implies, and the draw and the home win take the difference.

This season so far

None of the 2026-27 results below are in our number. Nine games in, Crystal Palace are 18th of 20 with 7 points from a 2-1-6 record (wins, draws, losses), 9 scored and 21 conceded. Liverpool are 5th with 15 points from 4-3-2, 11 scored and 9 conceded.

The venue records point both ways. Palace are 1-0-3 at home this season, scoring 1.5 a game and conceding 2.5. Liverpool are 3-1-0 on the road, scoring 1.75 and conceding 0.75. That is 4 games a side, and four games prove nothing about a rate. They stay outside the method, and we read them as the main risk to this bet.

Crystal Palace at home, Liverpool on the road

At Selhurst Park in 2025-26, Palace went 4-9-6 in 19, scoring 1.0 a game and conceding 1.21. Nine draws in 19 home games is the shape the 25.6% on the draw comes from. The splits leave out neutral-site games.

Liverpool away went 7-3-9 in 19, scoring 1.53 and conceding 1.74. That conceding rate is the whole case. A side that let in 1.74 a game on the road is priced here as a 60.1% winner away from home.

The halves the method leaves out favour Liverpool, as expected. At Anfield they were 10-6-3, scoring 1.79 and conceding 1.05. Palace away were 7-3-9, scoring 1.16 and conceding 1.47. Neither half counts in this game.

The season around it

Last season Liverpool finished 5th of 20 with 60 points from 17-9-12, 63 scored and 53 conceded. Crystal Palace were 15th with 45 points from 11-12-15, 41 scored and 51 conceded.

ESPN lists five games between the clubs. With Liverpool listed at home: 1-1 on 25 May 2025, a 0-3 Palace win on 29 October 2025, and a 3-1 Liverpool win on 25 April 2026. With Palace listed at home: 2-2 on 10 August 2025 and a 2-1 Palace win on 27 September 2025. The method weights none of them on its own. A meeting counts only as one of the 19 games in a 2025-26 Premier League venue record, where it was one.

Pick: Crystal Palace +425

The bet is Crystal Palace to win. Our 28.6% against the market’s 18.2% is a gap of 10.4 points, more than the 5 the rule asks for.

The price is +425 at DraftKings, read 6 November 2026 at 20:57 UTC. This page has one read of the prices, so there is no opening price to set beside it.

What kills the bet

The price. Palace remain a bet at +305 or longer; anything shorter than +305 and the gap falls under 5 points. The draw would clear the threshold at +364 or longer, against +340 now. Liverpool would need +135 or longer, against -170 now.

The team sheets. Nothing in this analysis states who is available for Sunday 8 November. Check the lineups before you bet.

The sample. This season’s venue records run against Palace, and 4 games a side are not in the number.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -175 and under +140. Without the margin the market has the over at 60.4% and the under at 39.6%. Our number has the over at 49.4% and the under at 50.6%, 11.0 points under the market on the over. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference only.

This season 5 of Palace’s 9 league games went over 2.5, and 4 of Liverpool’s 9. Last season it was 21 of 38 for Palace and 23 of 38 for Liverpool.

Liverpool at Crystal Palace, English Premier League, Sunday 8 November, 9:00 AM ET, Selhurst Park, London. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 20:57 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.