Premier League
SpreadTotalMoneyTOT-0.5U 2.5+155LEE+0.5O 2.5+180
Premier League · Saturday 7 November
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United Final Score: Leeds United Win 1-0
Final: Leeds United 1, Tottenham Hotspur 0, Saturday 7 November at Elland Road.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United.”
What decided it
Leeds United won the second half by 1. The goals: Noah Okafor (Leeds United) 79′. Leeds United had 4 shots on target to Tottenham Hotspur’s 4, with 39.2% of the ball.
| Team | 1st half | 2nd half | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leeds United | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The last DraftKings prices ESPN holds for the match are Leeds United +180, the draw +235 and Tottenham Hotspur +155, with a total of 2.5. Tottenham Hotspur, the favourite, lost. The 1 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Tottenham Hotspur plays next against Ipswich Town on Saturday 21 November. Leeds United plays next at Chelsea on Saturday 21 November.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United. Leeds are our widest gap at 4.5 points over the market, half a point short of the 5 a bet needs.
DraftKings has Leeds at +170, the draw at +235 and Tottenham at +165 for Saturday 7 November at Elland Road. Those three prices add to more than 100% because the book builds in a margin, 4.6% here. With the margin removed, the market reads Leeds 35.4%, the draw 28.5% and Tottenham 36.1%.
We have Leeds at 39.9%, the draw at 26.3% and Tottenham at 33.8%. That is Leeds 4.5 points above the market, the draw 2.2 below and Tottenham 2.3 below. The rule is fixed before the pick: an outcome is a bet only when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s. None of the three clears it.
How the 39.9% for Leeds is reached
Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at that venue. That average is then scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league. A Poisson model on the two expected-goal figures gives the home win, the draw and the away win.
The averages come from the 2025-26 Premier League, 380 games: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Leeds scored at home at 1.0 times the league’s home rate. Tottenham conceded on the road at 0.9 of it. That gives Leeds 1.37 expected goals.
Tottenham scored away at 1.12 times the visitor’s rate, and Leeds conceded at home at 0.9 of it. That leaves Tottenham 1.24 expected goals. A gap of 0.13 goals between the sides is close to a coin flip with a draw in the middle, and it is what the prices already say.
This season so far
Both clubs have 4 games at the relevant venue in 2026-27, and the number still runs on last season’s records. This season’s venue form sits outside the method.
Leeds are 1-3-0 (wins, draws, losses) at Elland Road, scoring 6 and conceding 3: 1.5 and 0.75 a game. Tottenham are 1-2-1 away, scoring 3 and conceding 4: 0.75 and 1.0 a game. Against last season’s figures, Tottenham’s away scoring is down from 1.37 to 0.75. In our view that would pull their expected goals lower if it were used. Four games is too few to say whether it lasts, and this page does not count it.
Leeds at home, Tottenham on the road
These are the two halves the method uses, from 2025-26. Leeds went 9-5-5 in 19 home games, scoring 29 and conceding 21, or 1.53 and 1.11 a game. Tottenham went 7-5-7 in 19 away games, scoring 26 and conceding 26, which is 1.37 a game each way.
The halves left out tell a different story about both clubs. Leeds were 2-9-8 on the road last season, scoring 1.05 a game and conceding 1.84. Tottenham were 3-6-10 at home, scoring 1.16 and conceding 1.63. Tottenham were the better travelling side and the worse home side, and only the travelling record is in this number.
The table, this season and last
Nine games into 2026-27 the clubs are a point apart. Tottenham are 9th of 20 with 12 points from 3-3-3, 10 scored and 10 conceded. Leeds are 12th with 11 points from 2-5-2, 9 scored and 8 conceded.
Last season Leeds finished 14th with 47 points, 11-14-13, with a goal difference of 49 to 56. Tottenham finished 17th with 41 points from 10-11-17, scoring 48 and conceding 57. Leeds’ 5 draws in 9 games this season fit a price of +235 on the draw. Our 26.3% is still below the market’s 28.5%.
The last meetings
ESPN lists five league meetings since February 2022. Tottenham won four and drew one. At Elland Road they won 4-0 on 26 February 2022, 4-1 on 28 May 2023 and 2-1 on 4 October 2025. In London they won 4-3 on 12 November 2022 and drew 1-1 on 11 May 2026.
The October 2025 game at Elland Road is one of the 19 in each venue record the method uses, so it sits inside our number as one game of 19. The May 2026 game falls in the halves left out. The three older meetings are outside the method. Five games across five seasons is a record, not a rate.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the result. Leeds at +170 are our widest gap, 4.5 points against a 5-point threshold.
The price was read at DraftKings via ESPN on 5 November 2026 at 17:41 UTC. The draw and Tottenham are both below the market in our number, so neither is a lean.
What kills the bet
Here the question is what makes one, and for Leeds it takes very little. At +175 or longer, against +170 now, Leeds become a bet. The draw needs +349 or longer and Tottenham +232 or longer. Each threshold assumes the 4.6% margin holds.
Tottenham at +232 would need a price move of the kind team news brings, and nothing in the method points that way. This page names no injuries and says nothing about who is available on Saturday. Check the lineups before you bet, and check the Leeds price: a 5-cent drift is the whole distance to a bet.
The sample matters too. Both clubs are 4 games into this season’s venue records. The number moves when the method switches to them.
The total
The total is 2.5 goals, over -105 and under -120. Without the margin the market has the over at 48.4% and the under at 51.6%. We have the over at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%, a gap of 0.1 points. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference only.
This season 2 of Leeds’ 9 league games went over 2.5, and 3 of Tottenham’s 9. Last season it was 21 of 38 for Leeds and 24 of 38 for Tottenham. The early under run is 9 games a side and proves nothing yet.
Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United, English Premier League, Saturday 7 November, 7:30 AM ET, Elland Road, Leeds. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 5 November 2026, 17:41 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.