Premier League
Premier League · Saturday 7 November
Hull City vs Arsenal Final Score: Arsenal Win 1-0
Final: Arsenal 1, Hull City 0, Saturday 7 November at Emirates Stadium.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on Hull City at Arsenal.”
What decided it
Arsenal won the second half by 1. The goals: Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal) 72′. Arsenal had 10 shots on target to Hull City’s 2, with 66.9% of the ball.
| Team | 1st half | 2nd half | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arsenal | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The last DraftKings prices ESPN holds for the match are Arsenal -700, the draw +700 and Hull City +1900, with a total of 3.5. Arsenal, the favourite, won. The 1 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Hull City plays next against Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday 22 November. Arsenal plays next at Newcastle United on Saturday 21 November.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Hull City vs Arsenal Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on Hull City at Arsenal. Our method needs six away games or a full previous Premier League season from Hull City, and it has neither, so there is no number to set against the price.
The Hull City vs Arsenal prediction is a pass. DraftKings has Arsenal at -600, the draw at +700 and Hull City at +1600, read on 5 November 2026 at 17:43 UTC. The margin is the extra a book builds in so that the prices add to more than 100%. Take out the 4.1% margin here and the market reads Arsenal 82.3%, the draw 12.0% and Hull City 5.7%.
Why there is no number for this game
Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at that venue. That figure is then scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and by the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against that average. A Poisson spread on the two figures gives the home win, the draw and the away win. An outcome is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.
The away half of that sum has to come from somewhere. The method uses this season’s venue record once a side reaches 6 games. Before that it falls back on the previous Premier League season. Hull City have played 4 away games in 2026-27 and have no 2025-26 Premier League away record to fall back on. Without that rate we have no expected-goals figure for either side, so there is no percentage and no gap. The pass comes from that missing input. It says nothing about whether Arsenal at -600 is a fair price.
Arsenal at home, Hull City on the road
These are the two halves the method would use. Arsenal are 4-0-0 at the Emirates this season (wins, draws, losses), scoring 9 and conceding 2: 2.25 a game for and 0.50 against. The league average across 90 games this season is 1.5 goals for the home side and 1.2 for the visitor. Arsenal’s home scoring sits well above that line on four games.
Hull City are 1-1-2 away, with 4 scored and 5 conceded, or 1.00 and 1.25 a game. That is the half the method will not use yet. Four games is a thin sample. It describes a month, and a month does not describe a team.
The halves the method leaves out are listed for the record. Arsenal are 4-0-1 on the road, with 5 scored and 3 conceded. Hull City are 1-4-0 at home, with 7 scored and 5 conceded, so four of their five home games have ended level. Neither split feeds a prediction for a game at the Emirates.
Last season Arsenal’s home record was 15-2-2 over 19 games, with 41 scored and 11 conceded: 2.16 and 0.58 a game. The 2025-26 league average over 380 games was 1.53 home goals and 1.22 away. Arsenal’s half of the sum is well measured. Hull City’s half is the one that is missing.
The table, this season and last
Arsenal are 1st of 20 after 9 games, with 24 points from 8-0-1, 14 scored and 5 conceded. They also finished 1st last season, with 85 points from 26-7-5, 71 scored and 27 conceded. Hull City are 11th with 11 points from 2-5-2, 11 scored and 10 conceded.
The goal counts split the two sides apart. None of Arsenal’s 9 league games this season has gone over 3.5 goals, and 4 have gone over 2.5. Hull City also have 4 of 9 over 2.5, but 3 of their 9 went over 3.5. Nine games each is a short span, and the method does not price the goals.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the result. Arsenal -600, the draw +700 and Hull City +1600 at DraftKings, read 5 November 2026, 17:43 UTC. These prices come from a single read. With no figure of our own there is no gap to set against the 5-point threshold. The opening prices are not in the record, so this page says nothing about how the line has moved.
What kills the bet
There is no bet to kill. For the same reason, no price would create one. However far any of the three prices moved, the method would still have no figure to compare against it, so it would still pass. The call changes when the sample does. From Hull City’s sixth away league game, the method has the rate it needs.
The team sheets are not covered here. No injury list was read for this page. Check the lineups before you bet anything.
The last meetings
ESPN lists five league games between the clubs from May 2015 to February 2017. At Hull City, Arsenal won 3-1 on 4 May 2015, 4-0 on 8 March 2016 and 4-1 on 17 September 2016. At Arsenal, the clubs drew 0-0 on 20 February 2016 and Arsenal won 2-0 on 11 February 2017. None of the five feeds the number, and from that distance they would carry no weight even if the method had one.
Hull City at Arsenal, English Premier League, Saturday 7 November, 10:00 AM ET, Emirates Stadium, London. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 5 November 2026, 17:43 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.