Premier League
SpreadTotalMoneyNEW+0.5U 2.5+255FUL-0.5O 2.5+100
Premier League · Saturday 7 November
Newcastle United vs Fulham Final Score: 1-1 Draw
Final: Newcastle United 1, Fulham 1, a draw, Saturday 7 November at Craven Cottage.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Take Fulham at home to Newcastle United.” The Fulham moneyline lost: the match ended in a draw, and a bet on either team to win loses on a draw.
What decided it
Neither team won: the score was 1-1 at the end. The goals: Jacob Murphy (Newcastle United) 80′, Rodrigo Muniz (Fulham) 83′. Newcastle United had 5 shots on target to Fulham’s 5, with 42.1% of the ball.
| Team | 1st half | 2nd half | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Fulham | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The last DraftKings prices ESPN holds for the match are Fulham -105, the draw +280 and Newcastle United +260, with a total of 2.5. Fulham, the favourite, drew. The 2 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Newcastle United plays next against Arsenal on Saturday 21 November. Fulham plays next at Manchester City on Saturday 21 November.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Newcastle United vs Fulham Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Take Fulham at home to Newcastle United. Our 50.9% against the market’s 45.6% is a 5.3-point gap, just clear of the 5 a bet needs.
Our Newcastle United vs Fulham prediction rests on one comparison: the home win at Craven Cottage is priced as a 45.6% chance, and our method puts it at 50.9%. The draw and the Newcastle win do not come close to qualifying.
The prices and what they say
DraftKings lists Fulham at +110, the draw at +265 and Newcastle United at +240, read 5 November 2026 at 17:43 UTC. Those three prices carry a 4.4% margin, the extra a book builds in so that the chances add to more than 100%. With the margin out, the market reads Fulham 45.6%, the draw 26.2% and Newcastle United 28.2%.
The rule is fixed before any game. An outcome is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s. Fulham clear it by 5.3. The draw is 1.8 points above the market, and Newcastle United sit 7.0 points below it.
How 50.9% is reached
Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average at that venue, then scale by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against that average. A Poisson model on the two figures then gives the home win, the draw and the away win. Neither team can be bet with fewer than 4 games in its sample.
The averages come from 2025-26: 380 Premier League games, 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Fulham’s home scoring was 1.03 times the home rate, and Newcastle United conceded away at 0.86 of it. That gives Fulham 1.36 expected goals. Newcastle United scored away at 0.73 of the visitor’s rate and Fulham conceded at home at 0.86 of it, which leaves Newcastle United 0.77. A gap of that size in expected goals is what turns into a 50.9% home win.
This season so far
Fulham and Newcastle United have each played 4 league games at the venue that matters here. The number still runs on 2025-26 venue records, 19 games a side, so nothing below is inside it.
Fulham are 1-1-2 (wins, draws, losses) at home this season, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Newcastle United are 2-0-2 away, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Four games a side is a thin sample and proves nothing yet.
Fulham at home, Newcastle United on the road
Last season at Craven Cottage, Fulham went 11-2-6 in 19, scoring 30 and conceding 20. That is 1.58 a game scored and 1.05 conceded. Newcastle United on the road went 4-5-10 in 19, scoring 17 and conceding 25: 0.89 and 1.32 a game. Those two splits are the whole of the model’s input.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way for each club. Newcastle United were 10-2-7 at home last season, scoring 1.89 a game. Fulham were 4-5-10 away, conceding 1.63. Neither split describes this game.
This season the early venue numbers move in both directions. Fulham concede 1.75 a game at home against 1.05 last season, and Newcastle United score 1.50 away against 0.89, both of which would pull our number toward the visitors. Newcastle United also concede 2.00 away against 1.32, which would push it back toward Fulham. On 4 games each, we do not read a direction from that.
The season around it
Nine games into 2026-27 the two clubs are close in the table. Fulham are 15th of 20 with 9 points from 2-3-4, 9 scored and 11 conceded. Newcastle United are 13th with 11 points from 3-2-4, 12 scored and 15 conceded. Last season Fulham finished 11th with 52 points, 15-7-16, and Newcastle United 12th with 49, 14-7-17.
ESPN lists five games between the two since September 2024. With Fulham listed at home, Fulham won 3-1 on 21 September 2024 and 2-0 on 24 May 2026. With Newcastle United at home, Fulham won 2-1 on 1 February 2025, and Newcastle United won 2-1 on 25 October 2025 and 2-1 on 17 December 2025.
The method gives these games no weight of their own. Any that were 2025-26 league games are already inside the season records it uses, as one game among 19.
Pick: Fulham +110
Fulham to win, at +110 with DraftKings, read 5 November 2026 at 17:43 UTC. Our 50.9% sits 5.3 points above the market’s 45.6%, against a 5-point threshold.
This is a thin edge, and it is stated as one. The rule draws its line at 5 points and this clears it by 0.3.
What kills the bet
The price, and there is almost no room. Fulham stay a bet at +109 or longer, against +110 now. Any shorter and the gap drops under 5 points, and the call becomes no bet.
Newcastle United would need +492 or longer to become the bet, against +240 now, and the draw +317 or longer, against +265. Each of those thresholds assumes the 4.4% margin holds.
This page carries no injury information and says nothing about who is available on 7 November. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The total is 2.5 goals: over -155, under +125. With the margin out the market has the over at 57.8% and the under at 42.2%. Our number has the over at 35.9% and the under at 64.1%, so our over is 21.9 points below the market’s. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference only.
Expected goals of 1.36 and 0.77 describe a low-scoring game. Last season 19 of Fulham’s 38 league games went over 2.5, and 24 of Newcastle United’s 38. This season it is 3 of 9 for Fulham and 5 of 9 for Newcastle United.
Newcastle United at Fulham, English Premier League, Saturday 7 November, 10:00 AM ET, Craven Cottage, London. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 5 November 2026, 17:43 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 English Premier League league games and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.