Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Manchester City at Nottingham Forest. City are 3.8 points above the DraftKings price, short of the 5 a bet needs.

DraftKings lists Manchester City at -135, the draw at +310 and Nottingham Forest at +350. A book builds in a margin, the extra that makes the three prices add to more than 100%. Here it is 4.1%. Take it out and the market reads Manchester City 55.2%, the draw 23.4% and Nottingham Forest 21.4%.

Our prediction has Manchester City at 59.0%, the draw at 24.1% and Nottingham Forest at 16.9%. City sit 3.8 points above the market, the draw 0.7 above and Forest 4.5 below. The rule is 5 points above the market on one outcome, and nothing clears it.

How our 59.0% is reached

Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at that venue. That average is then scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league. A Poisson model on the two expected-goal figures gives the home win, the draw and the away win.

The league averages come from 2025-26, over 380 games: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Forest scored at home at 0.69 of the home rate, and City conceded away at 0.72 of it. That leaves Forest 0.76 expected goals. City scored away at 1.38 times the visitor’s rate, against a Forest home defence at 0.99 of it, which gives City 1.67.

A gap of that size in expected goals is what a -135 favourite looks like. The market prices City a little shorter of their chance than we do, and that difference is the 3.8 points.

Nottingham Forest at home, Manchester City on the road

The number runs on last season’s venue records, 19 games a side. At the City Ground in 2025-26, Forest went 4-8-7 (wins, draws, losses), scoring 1.05 a game and conceding 1.21. City on the road went 9-6-4, scoring 1.68 and conceding 1.11.

The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Forest were 7-3-9 away last season, with 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded a game. City were 14-3-2 at home, scoring 2.37 and conceding 0.74. Neither split enters this game’s number, because Forest are at home and City are away.

This season’s venue records sit outside the number. Forest have played 4 at home, 0-1-3, without scoring a goal and conceding 3. City have played 4 away, 3-0-1, scoring 2.25 a game and conceding 0.75. Read alone, both would push our number further toward City. Four games is a thin base, and it proves nothing yet.

The season around it

Nine games into 2026-27, the table has a wide gap between the two. Manchester City are 2nd of 20 with 21 points from 7-0-2, 20 scored and 10 conceded. Nottingham Forest are 19th with 6 points from 1-3-5, 6 scored and 12 conceded.

Last season set the same order. City finished 2nd with 78 points from 23-9-6, 77 scored and 35 conceded. Forest finished 16th with 44 points from 11-11-16, 48 scored and 51 conceded. Away from home this season Forest are 1-2-2, with 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded a game.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. The widest gap in City’s favour is 3.8 points, against a 5-point threshold. The price is Manchester City -135 at DraftKings, read 5 November 2026 at 17:44 UTC, with no earlier read to compare it with.

Forest’s 4.5-point gap runs the other way: we rate them below the market, so it argues against backing them.

What kills the bet

Here, what would make one. Manchester City become a bet at -128 or longer, against -135 now. That is a small move, and it is the one to watch before kickoff on Saturday 7 November at 12:30 PM ET.

The draw needs +404 or longer, against +310. Nottingham Forest need +708 or longer, against +350, which is far out of reach on this number.

This page holds no injury list, and nothing in our number accounts for who plays. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -155 and under +125. Without the margin the market has the over at 57.8% and the under at 42.2%. Our number has the over at 43.8% and the under at 56.2%, so our over sits 14.0 points below the market’s. The method does not stake the goals, so this is for reference only.

The records split. Forest’s games went over 2.5 in 3 of 9 this season and 20 of 38 last season. City’s went over in 6 of 9 this season and 24 of 38 last.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five meetings since December 2024. With City listed at home, City won 3-0 on 4 December 2024 and the teams drew 2-2 on 4 March 2026. With Forest listed at home, Forest won 1-0 on 8 March 2025, City won 2-0 on 27 April 2025 and City won 2-1 on 27 December 2025.

The method reads venue records, not meetings, so no game in this list carries extra weight in the number.

Manchester City at Nottingham Forest, English Premier League, Saturday 7 November, 12:30 PM ET, The City Ground, Nottingham. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 5 November 2026, 17:44 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.