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Napoli vs Venezia Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 15 Oct 2026
Serie ASat 17 Oct
Napoli
at
Venezia
SpreadTotalMoneyNAP-0.5U 2.5-150VEN+0.5O 2.5+340

No bet on Napoli at Venezia. Venezia have played 3 home games this season, short of the 6 the method needs, and there is no home record from last season in this league to stand in for them.

For this Napoli vs Venezia prediction, DraftKings has Napoli at -150, the draw at +295 and Venezia at +340. The margin built into those three prices is 8.0%. Once it is removed, the market makes Napoli 55.5%, the draw 23.4% and Venezia 21.0%.

We have no number of our own on this game, so there is nothing to measure those prices against. A side is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s, and with no chance of ours, no price qualifies.

Why there is no number

A number here would mean expected goals for both clubs: Venezia’s home scoring against Napoli’s away conceding, Napoli’s away scoring against Venezia’s home conceding, each as a multiple of the league average, fed through a Poisson model.

It takes this season’s record at the venue once a side has 6 games there. Below 6, it falls back on the same venue in 2025-26. Napoli would qualify that way: they have 3 away games this season, and last season they played 19 away, going 10-3-6 (wins, draws, losses) with 1.32 goals scored and 0.95 conceded a game. Venezia cannot. ESPN’s 2025-26 Serie A table does not list them, so there is no home record from last season to use, and 3 home games this season are not enough.

Venezia at home and Napoli awayVenezia at home and Napoli away, this season and lastVenezia at home, 2026-27 Italian Serie A0-0-3 in 3scored 0.67 a gameconceded 2.67 a gameNapoli away, 2026-27 Italian Serie A1-1-1 in 3scored 1.67 a gameconceded 1.33 a gameNapoli away, 2025-26 Italian Serie A10-3-6 in 19scored 1.32 a gameconceded 0.95 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season, when that record holds six or more.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

Venezia have lost all 3 home games, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Napoli are 1-1-1 away, 5 scored and 4 conceded. Three games tell us very little, and none of it enters a price.

The table, this season and last

Venezia are 20th of 20 after 6 games, without a point: six defeats, 5 goals scored and 16 conceded. Napoli are 8th with 10 points from 3-1-2, 10 scored and 6 conceded. Napoli were runners-up last season, 2nd on 76 points.

Venezia and Napoli in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastVenezia2026-27 Italian Serie A20 of 20, 0 pts in 62025-26 Italian Serie Anot in this leagueNapoli2026-27 Italian Serie A8 of 20, 10 pts in 62025-26 Italian Serie A2 of 20, 76 pts in 38Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

The market has Napoli at 55.5%, a little better than an even chance, against the bottom side. That may be right. Without a number, this page cannot say whether it is.

Pick: no bet

Pass on all three outcomes, whatever the price. The reason is the size of the sample, not a gap: Venezia have too few home games this season and no place in ESPN’s Serie A table last season.

What changes it

Venezia’s sixth home game in Serie A this season. After that game their home rates exist for 2026-27, and a home game of theirs can carry a number.

Team news plays no part in this pass, and the page makes no claim about who starts on 17 October.

The total

DraftKings has the total at 2.5 goals, over -145 and under +115. With no number of ours there is nothing to say about it either, and the method never bets the total.

The last meetings

ESPN lists four meetings since August 2021, in all competitions: three Napoli wins and one draw, Venezia without a win in them. The last, in March 2025, ended 0-0 with Venezia listed as the home side. The method does not use them.

Last meetings of Venezia and NapoliVenezia and Napoli: the last meetings ESPN holds16 Mar 2025Venezia 0-0 Napoli29 Dec 2024Napoli 1-0 Venezia6 Feb 2022Venezia 0-2 Napoli22 Aug 2021Napoli 2-0 VeneziaHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

Napoli at Venezia, Italian Serie A, Saturday 17 October, 9:00 AM ET, Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 15 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.