On Saturday, July 5, the 2025 Tour de France starts its grueling three-week trek across France to crown the race’s Yellow Jersey winner. In addition to the maillot jaune, the Tour de France also has three other jersey competitions including the second oldest classification – the King of the Mountains.

This cycling competition is represented by the Polka Dot Jersey and it’s won by the cyclist who scores the most mountain points throughout the Tour de France.

Last year, Richard Carapaz won the King of the Mountains having taken it from the overall race winner Tadej Pogacar. Unfortunately, he won’t be defending the jersey as Carapaz will miss the Tour due to an illness. The 2023 winner Giulio Ciccone is expected to miss as well, due to a crash at the Giro.

The 2022 winner, Jonas Vingegaard is set to race in this year’s Tour as he battles Pogacar for the overall win. However, he could be a sneaky play for the Polka Dot Jersey as well.

Let’s examine the latest TDF odds and make our 2025 Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey predictions.  

What is the Polka Dot Jersey in the Tour de France?

As mentioned, the Tour de France has four major jersey competitions. The overall race leader wins the Yellow Jersey. The Green Jersey goes to the cyclist, usually a sprinter, with the most stage points. The White Jersey goes to the best young rider. And, lastly, the Polka Dot Jersey goes to the cyclist who wins the King of the Mountains competition.

The Polka Dot jersey was introduced into the Tour in 1975, but the King of the Mountains classification has been around since 1933.

Mountain points are earned by the riders who ascend the summits first. The following is a previous breakdown of the mountain points earned based on the category of the climb:

• HC (hors categorie): 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 points
• 1^st Category: 10, 8, 6, 7, 5, 1 point
• 2^nd Category: 5, 3, 2 points
• 3^rd Category: 2, 1 point
• 4^th Category: 1 point

Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Odds

Check out the latest Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Oddsmakers have Tadej Pogacar listed as a massive betting favorite to win this year’s King of the Mountains Classification. Jonas Vingegaard and Lenny Martinez are the only two cyclists within shouting distance of Pogacar.

Other GC contenders like Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic are considered longshots in this competition.

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Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Contenders

The following cyclists are the most realistic contenders for the 2025 Tour de France King of the Mountains competition:

Tadej Pogacar (+175)

The man, myth, legend known as Tadej Pogacar is the odds-on favorite to win this competition for a third time. He won the Polka Dot Jersey in his first two Tour de France victories of 2020 and 2021.

He finished in the Top 3 the last four years and should do so once again. With a handful of hard mountain stages, and summit finishes to boot, Pogacar should have a strong chance of winning the Yellow and Polka Dot Jersey competitions.

Although he finished second in the Mountains Classification for Dauphine, he was clearly the best climber. And, he won the Green and Yellow Jerseys as well.

Not only is Pogacar the man to beat for the Maillot Jaune, but he’s also the man to beat for the King of the Mountains competition. In fact, I’m already dubbing Pogacar the King of France for the month of July.  

Jonas Vingegaard (+700)

For Jonas Vingegaard to have any hope of beating his rival Pogacar, he will need at least one win in the mountains and definitely hang with Tadej on the brutal climbs.

When Vingegaard won his first Tour de France in 2022, he ended up winning the Polka Dot Jersey as well. When he won the 2023 Tour, Jonas finished third in the KOTM competition, 17 points behind Ciccone and three points behind second-place Felix Gall.

Last year, Vingegaard was third in the KOTM competition, but more than 50 points behind the winner Carapaz and more than 30 points behind Pogacar who finished 2^nd.

Vingegaard has three wins on the year and was 2^nd in the dress rehearsal for the TDF – the Criterium du Dauphine. Unfortunately, Pogacar won the race after leaving Vingegaard far behind on the deciding mountain stages.

Has Vingegaard improved his form since Dauphine?

Lenny Martinez (+900)    

The French fans don’t have a lot of hope for this year’s Tour in regards to winning the race, but Lenny Martinez could give them hope for stage wins and possibly even the Polka Dot Jersey.

Martinez will be the top lieutenant for Santiago Buitrago in the Tour, but I can see a scenario where the French rider is given free reign to go after individual glory.

Martinez has had a solid season to date. He won stages at Paris-Nice, Tour de Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphine. He also finished 4^th at La Fleche Wallone and 5^th at the Volta a Catalunya.

If Buitrago falters in any way, then we could also see Martinez become the leader of Bahrain and have an even better shot at winning this jersey.

Michael Storer (+1600)

Tudor has a few riders ranked high on the odds boards with Alaphilippe and Michael Storer. Of the two, you have to like Storer’s chances better.

The Australian finished second in the Mountains Competition for Paris-Nice and even won on Stage 7. He dominated at the Tour of the Alps where he won a stage and the General Classification. Unfortunately, Storer wasn’t at his best for the Giro due to crashes.

However, this is one rider that won’t be a GC threat who can climb and be allowed to get into the breakaways. That means plenty of opportunities to capture mountain points and surprise the field.

Ben Healy (+2200)

Ben Healy has had a strong season to date. He was 4^th in Strade Bianche, Top 10 in the Mountains at Tirreno-Adriatico, won a stage at the Tour of Basque Country, was Top 5 at both La Flech Wallone and Liege Bastogne Liege, and has showed strong climbing legs this year.

With Carapaz out, I believe that EF Education will allow guys like Healey and Powless to go for individual glory like stage wins and the Polka Dot jersey.

Primoz Roglic (+8000)

Primoz Roglic will be aiming to win the Yellow Jersey, but for a cyclist with his overall climbing talents, and a handful of mountain top finishes, Roglic could surprise this year and win the King of the Mountains.

This is something that he could accomplish even if he can’t dethrone Pogacar or Vingegaard at the top of the podium. I expect the five-time Grand Tour winner to rebound after crashing out of the 2025 Giro d’Italia to have a strong performance in the Tour de France. He has a solid team that can support him in the mountains as well.

Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Predictions

Last year, I picked Pogacar to win this competition. Unfortunately, he came up short as Carapaz took the jersey from the overall Tour winner. Yet, if Pogacar really wanted to win this competition too, he would have.

With numerous summits finishes this year, I expect Pogacar to get a least one of those wins, if not two or three. We’re very fortunate to be able to watch one of the greatest to ride a bike in professional cycling.

Without someone like Carapaz, who is an elite climber, I don’t see anyone other than Vingegaard that can challenge Pogacar for the KOTM competition. And, Pogacar has already proven to be in a league of his own this year. I expect Martinez and Healy to be this year’s surprise KOTM challengers.

Bet: Tadej Pogacar (+175)

Tour de France Polka Dot Jersey Winners

Richard Virenque holds the record for the most Polka Dot jerseys with seven. Federico Bahamontes and Lucien Van Impe are both tied with six. Virenque also holds the record for most days in the Polka Dot jersey at 96.

The following is a list of the previous Tour de France King of the Mountains Winners: