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Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Week 5 Betting Preview
The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football, October 6, 2025, at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on ABC.
The Jaguars (3-1) are one of the AFC’s early surprises under first-year head coach Liam Coen, while the Chiefs (2-2) look to keep momentum after throttling the Ravens 37-20 in Week 4. The line opened Kansas City –3.5 / Over 46.5, and the market has held steady entering Monday night’s showdown.
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Line Movement and Odds
- Opening line: Chiefs –3.5 (–106), Jaguars +3.5 (–113)
- Current: Chiefs –3.5 (–110), Total 46.5 (–108 o / –113 u)
- Moneyline: Chiefs –184 | Jaguars +154
- Market split: 61% of bets on Kansas City, 56% of money on Jacksonville (sharp lean toward home dog)
Kansas City’s offense finally came alive last week. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns, spreading the ball to four different receivers. Rookie Xavier Worthy led in total yardage, adding 121 scrimmage yards in his return from injury.
“The execution, I think, was the biggest thing,” Mahomes said. “We were able to score a lot of points, but I’m always big on the execution.”
With the Jaguars forcing a league-high 13 turnovers, Mahomes’ discipline will be tested under the primetime spotlight — a setting the Chiefs have thrived in historically on Monday nights (10-3 under Andy Reid).
For broader insights into how underdogs perform in prime-time, check out the latest analysis on NFL underdogs and betting value.
Matchup Breakdown
Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook
Jacksonville’s offense has found an identity behind Travis Etienne Jr., who ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards (394) and leads all backs with 6.1 yards per carry. Liam Coen’s system emphasizes tempo and pre-snap motion, allowing Etienne to find daylight behind a zone-based line. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been steady but will need more explosive plays against a disciplined Chiefs secondary.
Defensively, the Jaguars have been a turnover machine — forcing at least three takeaways in every game. Their +9 turnover margin is best in the NFL. However, injuries to Travon Walker (wrist) and Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) could test their pass rush depth.
Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
Kansas City’s early-season struggles are fading fast. Mahomes is leading the league with 939 passing yards and nine TDs to only one pick. The offensive line has settled, and the defense has emerged as a quiet strength. The Chiefs are allowing only 18.7 points per game, good for 4th in the NFL, while ranking top-five in pressure rate.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s group is especially stingy on third down, holding opponents to 34%. If they can limit Etienne’s ground production, they’ll force Lawrence into difficult passing downs. Expect George Karlaftis and Leo Chenal to play big roles in disrupting the Jaguars’ rhythm.
For more context on how this matchup fits among prime-time slates, visit the Monday Night Football odds and predictions blog for updated breakdowns across all weeks.
Injuries and Conditions
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|
| DE Travon Walker (wrist) – Doubtful | CB Kristian Fulton (ankle) – Limited |
| LB Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) – Out | — |
| RB Bhayshul Tuten (shoulder) – Limited | — |
| WR Dyami Brown (shoulder) – Limited | — |
| S Eric Murray (neck) – Limited | — |
| 3 OL starters – Limited participants | — |
| View Jacksonville’s full injury report → | View Kansas City’s full injury report → |
Best Bets and Prediction
Jacksonville’s defense can create havoc, but Mahomes’ ability to read disguised coverages and adjust protection gives Kansas City the late-game edge. The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS as favorites in their last 11 games, and Mahomes is 6-1 SU on Monday nights.
Pick: Chiefs –3.5 (–110)
Projected Score: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20
Lean: Over 46.5 (–108)
Expect Kansas City’s red-zone efficiency and pressure defense to carry them through a competitive first half. For expanded NFL Betting Advice and Game Forecasts, visit the full ScoresAndStats NFL Previews section.
And don’t miss early-week lines on the Thursday Night Football betting preview and upcoming Monday Night Football breakdowns — perfect for tracking momentum across all prime-time matchups.
Monday Night Football action is heating up — stay sharp on every line move. Explore more expert picks here →
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Chiefs –3.5 (–110) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Chiefs 27 – Jaguars 20 |
| Total Lean | Over 46.5 (–108) |
| Market Split | 61% bets KC, 56% money JAX (sharp lean to home dog) |
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