Eagles at Jaguars prediction: Take Jaguars +1.5

No home field in London, and last season says Jacksonville by about five. Give me the Jaguars and the point and a half.

Philadelphia and Jacksonville meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on Sunday 11 October, kickoff 9:30 AM ET. First the record. Our last graded card, Week 3, went 3-3: Cleveland +2.5, the under 42 in Panthers at Browns and the Giants -3 won; New England +3, the under 43.5 in Raiders at Saints and the over 39.5 in Titans at Giants lost. At one unit a bet and prices under even money, that is a fraction of a unit down. Week 4 is still to play.

How the card works, same as every week. My number is last season’s scoring for and against, 17 games each, turned into a margin, with two points for the home side and none here: Jacksonville is the designated home team and nothing more. I bet a side or a total only when the market sits three points or more away from that number. One unit on every bet.

Jaguars +1.5 (-110)

Jacksonville went 13-4 last season, scored 474 and allowed 336, and finished plus 138. Philadelphia went 11-6, scored 379 and allowed 325, and finished plus 54. Per game that is plus 8.1 against plus 3.2, a gap of 4.9 points in Jacksonville’s favour.

So who should be laying the points on a neutral field? Jacksonville, by about five. The books have Philadelphia by 1.5. That is a gap of 6.4 points between my number and the market, more than twice what I need.

Worst price to bet: Jaguars -1.5 (-110). At -2 the gap drops under three and I pass.

Concede the close games

Here is how this goes wrong. Philadelphia wins the tight ones. The Eagles went 8-4 in one-score games last season, and both of their wins this season were by four or fewer: 24-22 at home to Washington and 24-20 in Tennessee. Jacksonville went 6-3 in one-score games. If this finishes inside a field goal, that record is the case against us.

It is also a record from two close wins, and the third game was not close. Philadelphia lost 27-7 in Chicago on Monday night and is minus 14 on the season.

Jacksonville is 2-1 and plus 46. The Jaguars beat Cleveland 34-10, lost 20-13 in Denver and beat New England 35-6 on 27 September. That last one cost us: we took New England +3 in that game, and it was not close either. Personally, I think the team that made that bet look foolish is the one to be on, and last season says the same thing over seventeen games. Give me the Jaguars.

The total, and why it is a pass

Run each offence against the other defence and I land on 44.6. Philadelphia scored 22.3 a game last season and allowed 19.1. Jacksonville scored 27.9 and allowed 19.8. The market is 44.5. There is nothing there. No bet.

Does this season change that? It leans under. Jacksonville’s three games have gone 44, 33 and 41 points, and the Jaguars have allowed 12.0 a game. Philadelphia’s have gone 46, 44 and 34. Only one of the six went over 44.5. It is still three games against seventeen, and a lean under a number my own working puts dead level is not a bet.

Where the price stands

This is an early line, read 29 September, 12 days before kickoff, from three US sportsbooks that last posted it on 13 September, the first Sunday of the season. All three have Philadelphia -1.5; DraftKings deals both sides at -110, BetUS has the Jaguars +1.5 at -105. The totals are 45.5 at DraftKings and 44.5 at the other two. DraftKings is the reference line; shop around, because a price posted on the first Sunday of the season has had three weeks of scoring to move since.

These two did not meet last season, and our game records begin in 2025, so there is no head-to-head in this card.

The moneyline

DraftKings and William Hill both have Philadelphia -125 and Jacksonville +105. With the margin out, that is about 53 percent for the Eagles. My number says Jacksonville is the better team by five, and at +105 the Jaguars are paid more than even money to win outright. We take the points instead: one bet on one side, and the point and a half is worth more to us than the plus-money.

What would change it

A move to Jaguars -2 or longer takes the side away. A move toward the Jaguars getting more points only makes it better. The full version of this page re-reads every book in the week of the game.

Give me Jacksonville +1.5, one unit, and nothing on the total.

The call comes from last season’s 17-game rates and the prices read on 29 September. The rest of the Week 5 card is on our NFL predictions page.

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, Sunday 11 October 2026, 9:30 AM ET. Prices: three US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 29 September 2026, as last posted on 13 September. Results for 2025 and 2026: Nucleus.