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Lions at Cardinals Final Score: Lions Win 45-21

By Tony PhillipsUpdated 12 Oct 2026

Final: Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21, Sunday 11 October at State Farm Stadium.

Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on Arizona +4.5. The line has moved four points since this page took the Cardinals at +8.5, and the value went with it.”

What decided it

Detroit won the second quarter by 24. Detroit turned the ball over 0 times to Arizona’s 1, and gained 412 yards to 327.

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Detroit Lions02414745
Arizona Cardinals707721
Scoring by quarter, from ESPN.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is DET -4.5, with a total of 55.5. Detroit covered as the favourite. The 66 points went over the total.

What comes next

Detroit plays next against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday 25 October. Arizona plays next at the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday 18 October.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “No bet on Cardinals +4.5 – Lions at Cardinals prediction, odds and best picks”.

No bet on Arizona +4.5. The line has moved four points since this page took the Cardinals at +8.5, and the value went with it.

Watch Detroit on the road. The Lions are 0-2 away from home this season, beaten by 10 in Buffalo and by six in Carolina. It is why I still lean to Arizona. The price is no longer one I bet.

What changed since the first version

The first version of this page, with prices read on 28 September, said: “Take Arizona +8.5.” It also said where the bet ended: “If this comes in to Detroit -6 or shorter, the gap drops below a field goal and I pass.”

It has come in a long way past that. Six of the 11 US sportsbooks in the read of 6 October 2026 have Detroit -4.5. BetUS, MyBookie and William Hill have -5, and BetOnline and LowVig have -5.5.

Lions spread from -8 to -4.5Lions spread: the last time each line was on offer-9-8-7-6-5-4-813 Sep 16:10-8.513 Sep 17:10-45 Oct 22:10-56 Oct 04:10-4.56 Oct 04:10Higher means more points for Lions: the market moved toward Cardinals.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC. Each point is the newest time any book quoted that line (times UTC).

If you took +8.5, you hold a number four points better than today’s. I would not add to it at +4.5.

How I make the call

Same working every week. Each team’s points per game from last season, averaged with what the other side allowed, gives me a score for the game. This season’s games through the same sum give me a second one. Home field is worth two and a half points. When the market sits outside both numbers, and a field goal or more from last season’s, I bet the side they both point to. Anything short of that, I pass.

Last season, Detroit scored 28.3 a game and Arizona allowed 28.7, so Detroit comes out at 28.5. Arizona scored 20.9 and Detroit allowed 24.3, so Arizona comes out at 22.6. That is Detroit by 5.9 on a neutral field and about 3.4 in Arizona.

This season, Detroit has scored 29.75 a game and Arizona has allowed 29.25, so Detroit comes out at 29.5. Arizona has scored 21.75 and Detroit has allowed 31.75, so Arizona comes out at 26.75. That is Detroit by 2.75 on a neutral field and by a quarter of a point in Arizona.

Both numbers still sit on Arizona’s side of 4.5. The problem is the size of the gap. Last season’s working is 1.1 points from the market, and even the best number on the board, +5.5, is only 2.1 away. That is short of a field goal, so there is no bet.

What this season has shown

Detroit is 2-2 and has not won a game by more than seven. The Lions beat New Orleans 31-30 and the Jets 31-24 at home, and lost 41-31 in Buffalo and 32-26 in Carolina. They have allowed 127 points in four games, 31.75 a game, and at least 24 in every one of them.

Arizona is 1-3. The Cardinals won 26-14 at the Chargers, then lost 31-7 at home to Seattle, 36-30 in San Francisco and 36-24 in New York against the Giants. They covered as underdogs in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The moneyline has Detroit at -233 and Arizona at +198, the median of 11 books. Take out the bookmaker’s margin and that prices Detroit to win 67.6% of the time.

Moneyline implies Lions 67.6 percent, Cardinals 32.4 percentChance to win the game, as pricedLions 67.6%Cardinals 32.4%From the median moneylines of 11 books, Lions -233 and Cardinals +198, margin removed.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC.

What last season says

Arizona went 3-14 last season and was outscored by 133 points. Detroit went 9-8 and outscored its opponents by 68.

2025 point margin in every game, Cardinals and Lions2025 regular season, point margin in every gameCardinals3-14+7+5-1-3-1-4-4+10-22-19-3-3-28-20-7-23-17Lions9-8-14+31+8+24+13-13+15-3+22-7+7-7+14-7-5-13+3Blue bars are wins, grey bars are losses. Neutral-site games are included here.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN.

The margins were closer than that record. Ten of Arizona’s 17 games were decided by eight points or fewer, and the Cardinals lost eight of them. At home they went 1-7, scoring 21.6 a game and allowing 29.1. Detroit went 4-5 on the road, scoring 24.6 and allowing 25.4.

Cardinals at home and Lions on the road in 20252025: Cardinals at home against Lions on the roadPoints scored per gameCardinals at home 21.6Lions on the road 24.6Points allowed per gameCardinals at home 29.1Lions on the road 25.4RecordCardinals at home 1-7Lions on the road 4-5
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

A Detroit team that was about even away from home last season, and is 0-2 away this season, should not be laying a big number in Arizona. The market agrees now. At 4.5 it is close to where I would put it.

These two did not meet last season, and the data I have starts with the 2025 season, so there is no meeting to lean on.

The total

The total was 48.5 in the first version of this page. It is 54.5 now at seven books, 54 at two and 53.5 at two. I leave it alone.

Total from 48.5 to 54The total: the last time each number was on offer4849505152535448.513 Sep 17:1051.54 Oct 17:10535 Oct 04:1053.56 Oct 04:10546 Oct 04:10Selected steps where more than five numbers were quoted.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC. Each point is the newest time any book quoted that line (times UTC).

The two seasons disagree. Last season’s working gives 51.1 points, under the market. This season’s gives 56.25, over it. The market sits between them, and that is a pass.

This season is why the number climbed. Detroit’s four games finished on 61, 72, 55 and 58 points, every one of them over 54.5. Arizona’s finished on 40, 38, 66 and 60. Last season only 8 of Detroit’s 17 games went over 54.5, and 6 of Arizona’s.

2025 game totals for Cardinals and Lions against a total of 54.52025: total points in every game, against this week's 54.52030405060708054.5Cardinalsmedian 50Lionsmedian 53Each dot is one 2025 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. The line: median of the books quoting the game.

What changes it

The price. At Arizona +6.5 or more, the gap to last season’s number is back past a field goal and I would take the Cardinals again.

Who plays. This page prices no injury news, so read both teams’ reports before you bet.

No bet on Arizona +4.5.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday 11 October 2026, 4:25 PM ET. Prices: median across 11 US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 6 October 2026, 04:20 UTC. Results: Nucleus, the 2025 season checked game by game against ESPN, and 2026 through Week 4. Every Week 5 game: NFL Week 5 odds and predictions.