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College Football · Saturday 3 October

Old Dominion at Georgia State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 30 Sep 2026

Our number has Old Dominion by 2.8. At +2.5, take Old Dominion.

Old Dominion opened as a 1.5-point favorite at Georgia State at DraftKings. It is now a 2.5-point underdog, a 4-point move. Our number has Old Dominion winning by 2.8. The gap is 5.3 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together.

Georgia State is 1-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 8.0 points a game across 6 games. Old Dominion is 3-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 2.4 a game across 7 games. The difference is 5.6 points. Half of it is 2.8.

Six and seven games clear the minimum of 4. They do not make this a strong number: each side’s average leans on a game or a season that the other results do not look like.

Old Dominion on the road

Old Dominion’s seven road games swing by 71 points from best to worst. It won 45-10 at Georgia Southern, 31-6 at UL Monroe and 45-26 at Virginia Tech in 2025. It lost 63-27 at James Madison, 48-24 at Marshall and 27-14 at Indiana the same season, then 44-21 at Virginia Tech on 12 September.

Take out the 45-10 win at Georgia Southern and Old Dominion’s road average drops to an 8.7-point loss. Our number becomes Georgia State by 0.3, and against Old Dominion +2.5 the gap is 2.2. That is a pass. The bet rests on that one game.

Old Dominion is also 0-3 against FBS teams this season, scoring 19.3 a game and allowing 36.7.

Georgia State at home

Five of Georgia State’s six home games in the sample come from 2025, when it went 1-11. It lost them 38-16 to Memphis, 14-7 to James Madison, 41-20 to App State, 38-31 to South Alabama and 30-18 to Marshall.

The sixth is from this season: 35-14 over Northern Illinois on 26 September. Take it out and our number moves to Old Dominion by 5.7. The team that lost those five games is 3-1 this season, and the method weighs its 2025 home games the same as this one.

The last meeting was Old Dominion 27, Georgia State 10, on 29 November 2025 at Old Dominion.

2026 so far

Old Dominion is 1-3 and 0-1 in the Sun Belt. It beat Norfolk State 31-10, a team outside the FBS, lost 44-21 at Virginia Tech, lost 20-17 to East Carolina and lost 46-20 to James Madison on 26 September.

2026 point margin in every game, Georgia State and Old Dominion2026: point margin in every game so farGeorgia State3-1, +17.5 a game+49North Carolina A&T+14Kennesaw State-14UCF+21Northern IllinoisOld Dominion1-3, -7.8 a game+21Norfolk State-23Virginia Tech-3East Carolina-26James MadisonColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 30 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Georgia State is 3-1 and has not played a Sun Belt game. It beat North Carolina A&T 59-10, a team outside the FBS, won 31-17 at Kennesaw State, lost 44-30 at UCF and beat Northern Illinois 35-14. Against FBS teams it has scored 32.0 a game and allowed 25.0.

Last season

Old Dominion went 10-3 in 2025 and won by 13.5 a game, 6-0 at home and 3-3 on the road. It closed with a 24-10 win over South Florida at a neutral site on 17 December.

2025 point margin in every game, Georgia State and Old Dominion2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedGeorgia State1-11, -18.1 a game-56-22+16-49-7-21-17-7-13-12-12-17Old Dominion10-3, +13.5 a game-13+48+19+14+40-24-36+3+25+33+35+17+14Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 30 September 2026.

Georgia State went 1-11 and lost by 18.1 a game, 1-5 at home and 0-6 on the road. Its only win was 37-21 over Murray State, a team outside the FBS.

The price

Georgia State opened at +1.5 and is -2.5 now, read 30 September 2026 at 07:48 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Old Dominion +2.5 is priced at -112 and Georgia State -2.5 at -108.

Georgia State opened +1.5 and is -2.5 nowGeorgia State's line, from the open to nowpickopen +1.5now -2.5Negative numbers mean Georgia State is giving points. The line has moved 4 points toward Georgia State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-30 07:48 UTC.

The moneyline has Georgia State at -125 and Old Dominion at +105, from -105 and -115 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Georgia State to win 53.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Georgia State at 64.9%.

Moneyline implies Old Dominion 46.8 percent, Georgia State 53.2 percentChance to win the game, as pricedOld Dominion 46.8%Georgia State 53.2%From DraftKings's moneylines, Old Dominion +105 and Georgia State -125, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-30 07:48 UTC.

The market and FPI both make Georgia State the likelier winner, and FPI more so. Ours makes Old Dominion the winner by 2.8.

Pick: Old Dominion +2.5

Old Dominion +2.5 at -112. The gap is 5.3 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 13 games, split 6 and 7, and on one of them more than the rest: the 45-10 win at Georgia Southern. The 4-point move since the open took the gap from 1.3 to 5.3.

What changes it

A move back toward Old Dominion. The bet holds while Old Dominion gets at least half a point, where the gap is 3.3. At a pick’em it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass. Georgia State would become the bet only as an underdog of 6 or more.

Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total opened at 52.5 and is 52.5 now, over -105 and under -115.

Game totals for Georgia State and Old Dominion against 52.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 52.5203040506070809010052.5Georgia State8 of 14 over 52.5Old Dominion7 of 15 over 52.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 30 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-30 07:48 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Old Dominion’s games went over 52.5 in 7 of 15, and Georgia State’s in 8 of 14. The two samples point opposite ways. Old Dominion’s three FBS games this season produced 65, 37 and 66 points; Georgia State’s produced 48, 74 and 49.

No lean on the total.

The Old Dominion Monarchs and Georgia State Panthers team pages hold both schedules and last season’s results. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.

Old Dominion at Georgia State, Saturday 3 October, 3:30 PM ET, Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 September 2026, 07:48 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.