NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Kraken vs Flyers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Flyers at -125. Our number is 2.9 points above the price, short of the 5 we need.
The Philadelphia Flyers are -125 and the Seattle Kraken +105 at DraftKings. Strip the margin and the market has the Flyers at 53.2% and the Kraken at 46.8%. Ours has Philadelphia at 56.1%. That is 2.9 points toward the Flyers against a 5-point bar. No bet.
How the number is built
Two rates from 2025-26 go in, the home team’s home win rate and the visitor’s road loss rate, and their average is our home win chance. An overtime or shootout win counts as a win. Neutral-site games would be left out, and neither team had one.
The Flyers went 20-13-8 at home: 20 wins, 13 regulation losses, 8 losses after regulation. Over 41 games that is a 48.8% home win rate. The Kraken went 15-20-6 on the road and lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The two average 56.1% for Philadelphia and leave 43.9% for Seattle.
Philadelphia’s own half of that sum is below even. Twenty home wins in 41 would make the Flyers an underdog in their own building. Seattle’s 15 road wins in 41 are what lift them to 56.1%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices, so that together they come to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 they come to 104.3%. Take it out and the Flyers are 53.2%, the Kraken 46.8%.
The market and our number agree on the favourite and differ by less than 3 points on the size. Ours is built from 82 results, 41 Flyers home games and 41 Kraken road games, with no game from 2026-27 among them. A 2.9-point difference on that base is no edge.
The Flyers at home, the Kraken on the road
Philadelphia’s home games were low-scoring and level. The Flyers scored 2.71 a game at home and allowed 2.76, which is 5.47 goals a game in total and a deficit of 0.05. The Kraken on the road scored 2.56 and allowed 3.37, a deficit of 0.81.
The Flyers were the better team away from home. They went 23-14-4 on the road, a 56.1% win rate over 41 games, and scored 3.39 a game there against 2.71 at home. Their road games averaged 6.56 goals, more than a goal above their home games. The method reads only the home half, the weaker one.
The Kraken had a losing record in both places. At home they went 19-17-5, a 46.3% win rate over 41 games, and on the road 15-20-6, which is 36.6%. Seattle finished 34-37-11 with 79 points, was outscored by 37 goals over 82 games and missed the playoffs.
Philadelphia finished 43-27-12 with 98 points and a goal difference of plus 7. The Flyers beat the Penguins 4-2 in the playoffs and were then swept 4-0 by the Hurricanes. Their regular season ran long: 28 of their 82 games went past 60 minutes, and they won 16 of those. Fourteen of the 28 reached a shootout, where they went 10-4. The Kraken played 19 games past regulation and won 8.
The teams played twice in 2025-26 and the home team won both by three goals: Flyers 5-2 in Philadelphia on 20 October, Kraken 4-1 in Seattle on 28 December. Two games prove nothing, and the method gives them no weight of their own.
Pick: No bet on the Flyers -125
The moneyline is a pass. The Flyers are the side our number prefers, by 2.9 points, and 5 is the minimum.
The opening line was Flyers -130 and Kraken +110. It had moved to -125 and +105 at the read: 12 October 2026, 17:29 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. The move went toward Seattle, which is why the gap grew from 1.8 points to 2.9.
What changes it
The Flyers are the nearer side. At -104, or any price that pays more than that, they are a bet whatever Seattle costs, and they are -125 today. The Kraken would have to reach +158 or longer, from +105.
Lineups are the other unknown. Nothing on this page says who plays on 13 October, so check before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5 with the over at -130 and the under at +110. The Flyers’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82 and the Kraken’s in 45 of 82. Philadelphia’s home games averaged 5.47 goals and Seattle’s road games 5.93.
The over rates are 53.7% and 54.9%. Their average is 54.3%, and the over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin out. There is no gap, so the total is a pass.
The puck line has the Flyers -1.5 at +190 and the Kraken +1.5 at -230, or 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. Philadelphia won by two or more in 26 of 82 games and Seattle lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Flyers -1.5 lands 35.4% of the time against 33.1% priced. The gap is 2.3 points, under half the bar. Pass, and the call stays no bet at -125.
Kraken at Flyers, Tuesday 13 October, 7:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 17:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.