NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Maple Leafs vs Mammoth Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Mammoth at -142. We like Utah more than the price does, by 3.5 points, and 3.5 is not 5.
The Utah Mammoth are -142 and the Toronto Maple Leafs +120 at DraftKings. Without the margin the Mammoth are 56.3% and the Maple Leafs 43.7%. Our number has Utah at 59.8%. Both numbers name the same favourite. The gap between them is 3.5 points toward the Mammoth, and a side becomes a bet at 5 points or more. Pass.
What goes into 59.8%
Two rates from 2025-26, averaged: the home team’s win rate at home and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout results count as wins and losses like any other. Neither team played at a neutral site, so every home and road game is in.
Utah went 22-16-3 at home, which reads as 22 wins, 16 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation. Over 41 home games that is a 53.7% win rate. Toronto went 14-21-6 on the road. The Maple Leafs lost 27 of 41 away, a 65.9% road loss rate. The average of the two is 59.8% for the Mammoth and 40.2% for the Maple Leafs.
Toronto supplies most of that figure. A home team that wins 53.7% of the time is only a little better than a coin. A visitor that loses 65.9% of its road games is what lifts Utah close to 60%.
A book prices both sides so that the two chances add up past 100%, and the excess is its margin. At -142 and +120 they add up to 104.1%. Take it out and Utah is 56.3%.
So the market already charges for most of what we see. Of the 9.8 points our number puts Utah above an even game, the price holds 6.3. What is left, 3.5, is under the bar, and it rests on 41 games a side from last season. Nothing from 2026-27 is in these figures.
Toronto’s road problem, in goals
Away from home in 2025-26 the Maple Leafs scored 2.88 goals a game and allowed 3.76. That is 0.88 a game the wrong way across 41 games. The Mammoth at home scored 3.34 and allowed 3.02, 0.32 a game the right way.
Toronto was a losing team at home too, though less of one. The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 in their own building, a 43.9% win rate over 41 games, and won 14 of 41 on the road, 34.1%. They allowed more than they scored in both places: 3.54 against 3.29 at home.
Utah barely changed with the building. The Mammoth were 21-17-3 on the road, a 51.2% win rate against 53.7% at home, one win apart over 41 games each. Their road games had fewer goals at both ends, 3.20 scored and 2.83 allowed.
Over 82 games the Mammoth finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and outscored opponents by 28. They lost a playoff series to the Vegas Golden Knights, 4 games to 2. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, were outscored by 46 and did not play in the playoffs.
Fourteen of Toronto’s 78 points came from losses. The Maple Leafs needed more than 60 minutes 23 times and won 9, and each of the other 14 paid a point. Utah went to extra time 16 times and won 10. Games decided by one goal: Maple Leafs 14-4-14, Mammoth 16-11-6.
The teams split two meetings in 2025-26, each winning at home. Toronto won 5-3 at Scotiabank Arena on 5 November. Utah won 6-1 at Delta Center on 13 January. Two games are an anecdote, and the method leaves them out.
Pick: No bet on the Mammoth -142
No bet on the moneyline. Utah’s edge over the price is 3.5 points, 1.5 short of the 5 a bet needs.
The line opened at Mammoth -142 and Maple Leafs +120, and that was still the price when we read it. Read on 12 October 2026 at 16:04 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN: Utah -142, Toronto +120.
The prices that would change it
For Utah, -121 or any cheaper price. At -121 the Mammoth are a bet whatever Toronto is priced at. They are -142 now, so the favourite has to get 21 cents cheaper. For Toronto it is +184 or longer on the same terms, against +120 now.
Neither price is near, and the price is one unknown of two. This page states nothing about either lineup on 13 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. Mammoth games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82 and Maple Leafs games in 46 of 82. Utah’s home games averaged 6.36 goals and Toronto’s road games 6.64.
Those over rates, 46.3% and 56.1%, average 51.2%. The over at -108 is priced at 49.6% once the margin is removed. That gap is 1.6 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Mammoth -1.5 at +180 and the Maple Leafs +1.5 at -218, or 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. Utah won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games. Toronto lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 36.0% of the time against 34.3% priced, a gap of 1.7 points. Pass there as well. Three markets, three prices within 3.5 points of our figures, and no bet at -142.
Maple Leafs at Mammoth, Tuesday 13 October, 9:00 PM ET, Delta Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 16:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.