2026 NFL AFC Championship Game Odds and Predictions

The NFL Conference Round is here, as the Playoffs are down to the final four teams. The NFC will see a rivalry matchup in their Conference title game. The AFC Championship will feature two teams that have exceeded all expectations this year as the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots with a trip to Super Bowl 60 on the line.

In the Divisional Round, the Patriots handled the Houston Texans in a way that most pundits didn’t see coming. It was a solid effort from a team that has been stout, on both sides of the ball, all year long.

The Broncos benefitted from controversial calls at the end of the regulation and Overtime to win a game that many fans and critics said they shouldn’t have won. Nevertheless, they head into the AFC Championship without their starting QB Bo Nix who suffered a fractured ankle and will miss the rest of the postseason.

Currently, the Patriots are a one-score road favorite, according to the latest NFL betting lines. With that said, let’s dive deeper into these AFC Championship odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our NFL picks for the New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos.

What Is The AFC Championship?

The AFC Championship is the game that decides which team represents the Super Bowl from the AFC conference. The game was created as part of the NFL/AFL merger in 1970.

When Is The AFC Championship Game?

The AFC Championship game take place on Sunday, January 25. The NFL Conference Championships are scheduled two weeks ahead of the Super Bowl. Additionally, this AFC title game will be played in the early window, with the NFC Championship game getting the primetime spot.

What Channel Is AFC Championship Game On?

• Monday Night Football Channel: CBS, Paramount+
• Monday Night Football Time: 3pm ET
• Monday Night Football Announcers: Tony Romo and Jim Nantz

The New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos will kick off at 3pm ET live from the Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.

AFC Championship Odds

The following AFC Championship odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for the AFC title game and monitor how the lines change up until kickoff.

The visiting New England Patriots opened as a 5.5-point favorite along with being listed at -265 odds. That spread quickly dropped within a few hours to 4.5 points and a moneyline of -190 odds.

The Denver Broncos opened as a +215 Underdog before seeing their line drop slightly. Currently, Denver’s moneyline sits between +195 and +205. The Total opened at 40.5 points, and has slowly gone up to an O/U of 41.5 points. A few sportsbooks have the Over-Under at 41 points. So, if you think it’s going Under, then shop for the higher Total.

Unfortunately, we went 2-2 with our Divisional Round picks as the AFC games didn’t go as we thought. Yet, the NFC matchups ended as we had predicted.   

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AFC Championship Game Betting Trends

The following AFC Championship Game betting trends include data from last season:

New England Patriots Betting Trends

• 5-0 SU in last five games
• 8-0 SU in last eight road games
• 5-1 ATS in last six games on a Sunday
• 5-0 ATS in last five games
• Over is 6-1 in last seven games

Denver Broncos Betting Trends

• 14-1 SU in last 15 games
• 9-1 in last 10 home games
• 4-1 ATS in last five games as the Underdog
• 3-6 ATS in last nine AFC East games
• Under is 11-4 in last 15 AFC games

AFC Championship Game Matchup

These two NFL Teams have played against each other 55 times and it’s the Denver Broncos that hold the series advantage with a 31-24 record. However, the New England Patriots are 8-4 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games versus the Broncos.

Yet, there is an exception to that, as New England has gone a measly 6-14 in their last 20 trips to Denver. But, when dissecting that further, the Patriots have won their last three games at Denver.

AFC Championship Game Predictions

Let’s take a look at the participants in this week’s AFC Championship Game, and make our winning NFL picks: 

New England Patriots AFC Championship Preview

The New England Patriots’ defense has really stepped up in the Playoffs to help this team reach the AFC Championship game. While much will be made about Drake Maye, and rightfully so, it’s New England’s defense that has been the true difference maker this postseason.

In two Playoff games, the Patriots have held their opponents to just 19 total points. In the Wild Card Round, they held the Chargers to just three points and beat up Justin Herbert all game long. The Patriots sacked Herbert six times and hit him another six times, or more. They also forced a fumble on one of those sacks.

Then, in the Divisional Round, when everyone was talking about Houston’s defense, the Patriots force five turnovers including four interceptions from CJ Stroud. The Texans’ offense finished with just 241 total yards. That’s slightly better than LA’s 207 total yards.

Also, against the Chargers, Drake Maye threw for 268 yards and rushed for another 66 yards. Against the Texans, Maye finished with 3 TD passed and 179 yards. It’s worth noting that the MVP candidate has turned the ball over in both games. That could be a problem in Denver.

With that said, this Patriots team is playing like they have 11 Mike Vrabels on the field at all times.

Denver Broncos AFC Championship Preview

The Denver Broncos were very fortunate to win in OT against the Bills last weekend. Questionable officiating definitely impacted the game. But for Denver’s fanbase, the news of Bo Nix’s fractured ankle means that this team’s Super Bowl hopes took a massive hit.

Where the Broncos would’ve been favored with Nix at the helm, they’re now a sizable underdog and facing the daunting task of beating this rugged New England team.

The Broncos’ defense gave up 30 points last week. Yet, they created a number of turnovers that the offense could not capitalize on.

Things will be much more difficult this week against a New England defense that is statistically as good as Denver’s is.

It will be a concern on offense without Nix at QB. Stidham is serviceable but this is a big moment and he’s a backup quarterback for a reason. Denver will struggle to move the ball on offense, especially if they can’t protect Stidham or run against this Top 5 run defense.

The one thing that is in Denver’s favor is their pass rush. New England allows the 6^th highest sack rate in the NFL, while the Broncos have the top sack rate and led the league in sacks this year. We saw how ferocious that defensive line was in the Divisional Round. Maye was the third most sacked QB in the NFL this season.

If Denver can control the clock, get a few turnovers, and score in the red zone, then this team has a shot at winning despite Nix’s absence.

Who Is Winning The AFC Championship Game?

Unfortunately, I don’t see Denver being able to overcome the absence of Nix. Sure, this defense will do an admirable job at limiting New England’s success but this could end up another low-scoring win for the Patriots due to their defensive efforts against a backup QB.

New England has won their last three trips to Denver. I expect that trend to continue. Additionally, the Patriots are 8-4 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 overall meetings versus the Broncos.

Look for the Patriots to stuff Denver’s run as they rank 5^th in the NFL, allowing just 98.1 ypg on the ground. Then, I see this no.7 pass defense (189.6 ypg), which ranks two spots higher than Denver’s defense, to make Stidham’s life miserable on Sunday.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see New England force Stidham into a game just like Stroud had last weekend with four interceptions. I have little faith in Denver’s backup QB to play at the level needed to win this game. Which also means that I don’t see the Broncos scoring many points.

Congratulations Patriots fans. Your team is going to the Super Bowl!

Bet: New England Patriots (-245), Patriots -4.5 (-110), U 41.5 (-110)

AFC Championship Game Prop Bets

Let’s take a look at some of the best Player props and Game prop bets for this AFC Championship Game:

New England Patriots Rushing Total

• Over 115.5 yards (-110)
• Under 115.5 yards (-110)

While much of the offense’s success has been credited to Drake Maye and his breakout year, the run game has been slept on. New England’s ground game ranks 6^th in the NFL as they average 128.5 ypg.

The Broncos rank 4^th against the run at 96.2 ypg, but the Bills showed that you can run on Denver as they tallied 183 rushing yards in the Divisional Round. I think this bodes well for New England that will try to emulate Buffalo’s ground success.

I’m taking the Patriots to rush for more than 115 yards in this one. They did it against the Chargers but didn’t need to do as much against Houston due to all of the turnovers and decent field position.

Bet: Over 115.5 yards (-110)

Jarrett Stidham Passing Yards

• Over 188.5 yards (-110)
• Under 188.5 yards (-110)

Jarrett Stidham didn’t complete one pass during the regular season. So, I just can’t imagine that the backup QB is going fare well against the team that drafted him a handful of years ago.

Stidham is on his third team now, and is a notable drop-off from Nix. And, the Patriots rank 7^th in the NFL against the pass as they give up just 189.6 ypg. Denver has been strong in pass protection but that’s also due to Nix’s elusiveness and play-making ability. Stidham has neither.

Take the Under for this matchup. The Patriots held Stroud to 212 yards and Herbert to 159 yards through the air. Stidham will come closer to the latter.

Bet: Under 188.5 yards (-110)

Drake Maye Passing Attempts

• Over 29.5 attempts (-110)
• Under 29.5 attempts (-110)

In two Playoff games, Maye has averaged 28 passing attempts. He threw the ball 29 times against the Chargers and 27 times against the Texans. For the regular season, Maye only threw the ball 30 or more times on eight occasions.

With the Broncos playing without Nix, and Denver’s pass defense being their strength on this side of the ball, it makes perfect sense for the Patriots to run more than they throw. Keep the ball out of Denver’s hands, control the clock, win the battle in the trenches, and take advantage of Denver’s defensive weakness.

Throwing the ball 30 or more times would play right into their elite pass rush and talented secondary.

Bet: Under 29.5 attempts (-110)

Best Bets For The AFC Championship Game

Check out our best bets for AFC Championship Game:

• New England Patriots (-245)
• New England Patriots -4.5 (-110)
• Patriots over 115.5 rushing yards (-110)

As you can see from above, I am high on the Patriots this weekend. It’s a combination of their talent and the fact that this New England defense will tee off on Denver’s backup QB.

The Broncos defense allowed over 180 rushing yards to the Bills last weekend. The Patriots have the no.6 rushing attack in the NFL and a dynamic duo of backs with Stevenson and Henderson. Look for New England to go after this Denver run defense just like the Bills did last weekend.

If you put these best AFC Championship Game bets into a parlay, then you will win $596 for every $100 wagered. That’s a 6x ROI for this parlay card. For more parlay action, check out our best NFL parlays of the week.

AFC Championship History 

The following is a list of the most recent AFC Conference Champions: