College Football Playoff predictions start with a price: Ohio State is the +390 favorite to win the national title, with Notre Dame at +450 and Georgia at +475. Those are DraftKings’ College Football Playoff odds as ESPN listed them on October 17, 2026 at 11:15 UTC, before Saturday’s games.
Seeded today from the AP poll, the 12-team field would give byes to Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami and Ohio State. Indiana, Alabama, Texas, BYU, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Utah and Boise State would play the first round on December 18 and 19.
College Football Playoff odds: the title board
| Team | Title odds | Implied chance | Margin removed | Sept. 24 odds | AP rank | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +390 | 20.4% | 16.7% | +520 | 4 | 5-1 |
| Notre Dame | +450 | 18.2% | 14.9% | +650 | 2 | 6-0 |
| Georgia | +475 | 17.4% | 14.3% | +650 | 1 | 6-0 |
| Miami | +680 | 12.8% | 10.5% | +850 | 3 | 5-0 |
| Alabama | +950 | 9.5% | 7.8% | +2500 | 6 | 5-1 |
| Indiana | +1000 | 9.1% | 7.5% | +950 | 5 | 6-0 |
| Texas | +1050 | 8.7% | 7.1% | +620 | 7 | 4-1 |
| Ole Miss | +2600 | 3.7% | 3.0% | +1500 | 9 | 4-1 |
| LSU | +3500 | 2.8% | 2.3% | +1600 | 22 | 4-2 |
| Oklahoma | +6000 | 1.6% | 1.3% | +7400 | Not ranked | 3-2 |
| Utah | +6800 | 1.4% | 1.2% | +9000 | 11 | 5-0 |
| Oregon | +7000 | 1.4% | 1.2% | +2200 | Not ranked | 3-2 |
| Texas Tech | +7200 | 1.4% | 1.1% | +3200 | 10 | 5-0 |
| Florida | +7600 | 1.3% | 1.1% | +4000 | Not ranked | 4-2 |
| BYU | +8000 | 1.2% | 1.0% | +9000 | 8 | 5-0 |
| UCLA | +8200 | 1.2% | 1.0% | +40000 | 12 | 5-0 |
| Missouri | +9000 | 1.1% | 0.9% | +12500 | 13 | 5-1 |
| Tennessee | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.8% | +5500 | 14 | 5-1 |
| Nebraska | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.7% | +60000 | Not ranked | 5-1 |
| USC | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.6% | +3300 | 19 | 6-1 |
The table shows the 20 shortest prices of the 66 on the board. Implied chance is the price turned into a percentage: at +390 a $100 bet wins $390, so it breaks even when Ohio State wins the title 20.4% of the time. All 66 implied chances add up to 121.9%, and the 21.9 points above 100 are the book’s margin. The “margin removed” column divides each chance by that total.
Seven teams are priced shorter than +2000, and with the margin removed they hold 78.8% of the title between them. The eighth, Ole Miss, is +2600. At the far end, 49 of the 66 teams are +10000 or longer.
The favorite is not the top-ranked team. Ohio State is 5-1 and fourth in the AP poll, behind three unbeaten teams, and still shorter than all of them. The poll ranks what has happened. A futures price is a bet on January, and the market puts Ohio State 3.0 points of implied chance ahead of Georgia, the poll’s No. 1.
ESPN’s list of college football futures also carries the Heisman Trophy, which has its own odds page. Title betting itself is explained in our national championship betting guide.
What moved since September 24
Ohio State led this board on September 24 too, at +520, with Texas second at +620. Texas is now +1050 and seventh, after falling from first to seventh in this week’s AP poll with a 4-1 record.
Alabama made the largest move among the leaders, from +2500 to +950, which lifts its implied chance from 3.8% to 9.5%. Oregon went the other way, from +2200 to +7000, and LSU from +1600 to +3500. LSU dropped from 10th to 22nd in the same poll.
The board also shrank. It listed 106 teams on September 24 and lists 66 today, so 40 teams have been taken down in 23 days.
Odds to reach the semifinals and the final
| Team | To reach the semifinals | Implied chance | To reach the final | Implied chance | Title odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | -156 | 60.9% | +160 | 38.5% | +390 |
| Georgia | -146 | 59.3% | +184 | 35.2% | +475 |
| Notre Dame | -130 | 56.5% | +220 | 31.2% | +450 |
| Miami | +105 | 48.8% | +285 | 26.0% | +680 |
| Indiana | +150 | 40.0% | +375 | 21.1% | +1000 |
| Texas | +164 | 37.9% | +475 | 17.4% | +1050 |
| Alabama | +164 | 37.9% | +500 | 16.7% | +950 |
| Ole Miss | +500 | 16.7% | +1100 | 8.3% | +2600 |
| LSU | +750 | 11.8% | +2000 | 4.8% | +3500 |
| Utah | +1000 | 9.1% | +2500 | 3.8% | +6800 |
| Texas Tech | +1000 | 9.1% | +3200 | 3.0% | +7200 |
| BYU | +1200 | 7.7% | +3000 | 3.2% | +8000 |
ESPN’s list of DraftKings markets has no price on simply making the 12-team field. The nearest things are these two boards: to reach the semifinals, which four teams will do, and to reach the championship game, which two will. Three teams are odds-on to reach the semifinals: Ohio State at -156, Georgia at -146 and Notre Dame at -130.
The margin is counted the same way as on the title board, against a different total. Four semifinal places are worth 400%, and the 66 prices add up to 460.2%, a margin of 15.0%. Two places in the final are worth 200%, and that board adds up to 238.7%, a margin of 19.4%.
Read together, the three prices say where the market thinks each team would stall. With the margin taken out of each board, Ohio State’s title chance is 51.9% of its chance to reach the final, close to a coin flip once it is there. Indiana’s is 42.6%, the lowest among the seven leaders, and Alabama and Notre Dame are the highest at 55.7% and 56.9%. That is our arithmetic on the posted prices; the book quotes no such number.
How the rounds work as bets, from the first round on campus to the final, is in our College Football Playoff betting guide.
College Football Playoff predictions: the field if it were seeded today
| Seed | Team | AP rank | Record | How it gets in | First game | Title odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 1 | 6-0 | Highest-ranked SEC team | Bye to the quarterfinals | +475 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 2 | 6-0 | Ranked in the top 12 | Bye to the quarterfinals | +450 |
| 3 | Miami | 3 | 5-0 | Highest-ranked ACC team | Bye to the quarterfinals | +680 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 4 | 5-1 | Highest-ranked Big Ten team | Bye to the quarterfinals | +390 |
| 5 | Indiana | 5 | 6-0 | At large | First round | +1000 |
| 6 | Alabama | 6 | 5-1 | At large | First round | +950 |
| 7 | Texas | 7 | 4-1 | At large | First round | +1050 |
| 8 | BYU | 8 | 5-0 | Highest-ranked Big 12 team | First round | +8000 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 9 | 4-1 | At large | First round | +2600 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 10 | 5-0 | At large | First round | +7200 |
| 11 | Utah | 11 | 5-0 | At large | First round | +6800 |
| 12 | Boise State | 23 | 5-1 | Highest-ranked team from the other six conferences (Pac-12) | First round | +60000 |
The playoff’s own rules, as published on its site and read on October 13, set the field this way. The champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC get in, with the highest-ranked team from the other six conferences. Notre Dame gets in if it is ranked in the top 12, and the remaining places go to the next highest-ranked teams. Seeds follow the ranking, the top four get a bye, and an automatic qualifier ranked outside the top 12 goes to the bottom of the bracket.
Two things in the table are stand-ins. The ranking is the AP poll of October 11, because the selection committee has not ranked anyone yet: its first meeting is November 2-3, and the field is set on selection weekend, December 4-6. And no conference has a champion in October, so each conference’s highest-ranked team takes its place.
On those terms the first round would be Boise State at Indiana, Ole Miss at BYU, Utah at Alabama and Texas Tech at Texas. The winners would meet Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Notre Dame in the quarterfinals, in that order, and the bracket is not re-seeded after that.
The cost of the automatic places shows at the cut. UCLA is 5-0 and 12th in the poll, and it would be left out for Boise State, which is 23rd at 5-1 and priced at +60000 to win the title. Three teams among the 12 shortest title prices would also miss: LSU, Oklahoma and Oregon.
The field as ranked and the market’s implied chances are the predictions on this page. We have no tested method for a season-long title bet, so we make no title pick. The conference races that decide four of the automatic places are priced on our SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC odds pages.
Saturday’s games for the 12 teams
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Spread | Our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida (4-2) at No. 7 Texas (4-1) | 12 pm | Texas -11.5 | Florida at Texas |
| No. 4 Ohio State (5-1) at No. 5 Indiana (6-0) | 12 pm | Ohio State -3 | Ohio State at Indiana |
| Auburn (3-2) at No. 1 Georgia (6-0) | 3:30 pm | Georgia -19.5 | Auburn at Georgia |
| No. 13 Missouri (5-1) at No. 9 Ole Miss (4-1) | 3:30 pm | Ole Miss -5.5 | Missouri at Ole Miss |
| No. 6 Alabama (5-1) at No. 14 Tennessee (5-1) | 3:30 pm | Alabama -7.5 | Alabama at Tennessee |
| Arizona State (3-2) at No. 10 Texas Tech (5-0) | 3:30 pm | Texas Tech -15.5 | Arizona State at Texas Tech |
| Florida State (3-3) at No. 3 Miami (5-0) | 7 pm | Miami -20.5 | Florida State at Miami |
| No. 2 Notre Dame (6-0) at No. 8 BYU (5-0) | 7:30 pm | Notre Dame -10.5 | Notre Dame at BYU |
| No. 11 Utah (5-0) at Colorado (2-3) | 10:15 pm | Utah -14.5 | Utah at Colorado |
Eleven of the 12 teams play on Saturday, October 17, and Boise State does not. Two games put two of them on the same field. Ohio State is a 3-point favorite at Indiana, the fifth seed in the table above, and Notre Dame is favored by 10.5 at BYU. Spreads are DraftKings lines as ESPN listed them on October 17 at 11:15 UTC.
The last column links to our prediction for each game. The whole slate is on the college football Week 7 page, and every game we cover is on the college football predictions hub. For paid picks, see the top sports betting handicappers.
Playoff and bowl calendar
| Round | Date | Game | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| First round | Friday, December 18, 2026 | One game | The higher seed’s home stadium |
| First round | Saturday, December 19, 2026 | Three games | The higher seed’s home stadium |
| Quarterfinal | Wednesday, December 30, 2026 | Fiesta Bowl | State Farm Stadium, Glendale |
| Quarterfinal | Friday, January 1, 2027 | Cotton Bowl | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| Quarterfinal | Friday, January 1, 2027 | Rose Bowl | Rose Bowl, Pasadena |
| Quarterfinal | Friday, January 1, 2027 | Peach Bowl | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
| Semifinal | Thursday, January 14, 2027 | Orange Bowl | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens |
| Semifinal | Friday, January 15, 2027 | Sugar Bowl | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans |
| National championship | Monday, January 25, 2027 | Championship game | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas |
The dates are the playoff’s own, read from its site on October 13, and the stadiums are the ones ESPN’s schedule lists. The first round is played at the higher seed’s home stadium, one game on Friday, December 18 and three on Saturday, December 19. From the quarterfinals on, every game is at a bowl site or, for the final, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The top seed gets one more advantage than the bye. Under the published rules the No. 1 seed chooses its quarterfinal bowl and the semifinal it would advance to, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds choose next, and the No. 4 seed takes the bowl that is left.
How college football bowl odds work
A bowl is priced like any single game, with a spread, a total and a moneyline, once its two teams are known. None is known yet. ESPN’s schedule lists 47 postseason games for this season, and all 47 read “TBD at TBD” until the playoff field is set on selection weekend, December 4-6, and the other bowls fill in behind it.
Of the 47, 11 are playoff games and 36 are other bowls, from the Celebration Bowl in Atlanta on December 12 to the Liberty Bowl in Memphis on January 2. Six bowls host a playoff game this season: the Fiesta, Cotton, Peach and Rose in the quarterfinals, the Orange and Sugar in the semifinals.
Two things make college football bowl predictions different from a Saturday in October. Most bowls are at neutral sites, so the home-field points that sit inside a regular-season spread are not there; the first round of the playoff, on December 18 and 19, is the exception. And weeks pass between a team’s last regular-season game and its bowl. In that gap players sit out ahead of the NFL draft or enter the transfer portal, and coaches change jobs, so a bowl pick built on season-long numbers has to start with who is still playing.
Last season’s playoff, and what this page picked
Indiana won last season’s title, beating Miami 27-21 in the championship game on January 19, 2026. The semifinals were Miami 31, Ole Miss 27 in the Fiesta Bowl on January 8 and Indiana 56, Oregon 22 in the Peach Bowl on January 9.
Before those semifinals this page said: “Bet: Miami Hurricanes (-180), Spread (pass), Under 52 (-110)” and “Bet: Indiana Hoosiers (-185), Indiana -4 (-110), Total (pass)”. Both moneyline picks won, and Indiana covered the 4 points with 30 to spare. The under lost: Miami and Ole Miss scored 58.